NFL Playoff Picks: The Bettor's Guide to the Divisional Round

In the Wild Card Round, every favorite covered. In what must have been a slaughtering of Vegas books by the public, we hope to bounce back during the divisional round in a four-game sample to get to .500 in the playoffs heading into the conference championship games.

As always, our lines come from OddsShark, which hosts as many Las Vegas and online books as you can count. We'll show you exactly where the best lines are, from a point perspective, on both sides of games.

We'll also reference TeamRankings.com, which allows users to check for specific trends, dating back to the 2003 regular season. With the help of those outlets, we'll try to get over that speed bump of a Wild Card Round result.

Record ATS total: 109-126-3

Record ATS last week: 0-4

Seattle vs. Atlanta

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Best home line: Atlanta -5

Best away line: Seattle +5

On the road this season, in eight games, the Seattle Seahawks have only scored 127 points. That's the fourth-worst mark in the NFL, an average of just 15.88 points per game.

At home this season, in eight games, the Atlanta Falcons have scored 280 points. That's the best mark in the NFL, an average of 35 points per game.

On paper, this looks like a huge split. And it's even bigger when you consider the loss of Seattle free safety Earl Thomas. This is what the Seahawks did in the regular season without Thomas, who previously hadn't missed a game in his NFL career before breaking his leg against the Carolina Panthers in December:

• 38-10 blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers.
• 24-3 win on a short week against the Los Angeles Rams, who fired their head coach just three days prior.
• 34-31 loss to the Arizona Cardinals at home.
• 25-23 win, by the skin of their teeth, against a 2-14 San Francisco 49ers team.

They went 1-3 against the spread, looking off defensively, until they went up against an injured Matthew Stafford when they played the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, who will in all likelihood be this season's NFL MVP, is about as far from a banged-up passer as you can get.

Seattle's home-away splits might be significant in the playoffs too. They've only played four road playoff games in Russell Wilson's career: when they beat an injured Robert Griffin III as a rookie, when they lost to Atlanta, when they won a 10-9 game on a missed field goal against the Minnesota Vikings and when they went down 31-0 to the Carolina Panthers at the half last season.

Atlanta. Big.

The pick: Atlanta -5

Houston vs. New England

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Best home line: New England -15

Best away line: Houston +17

The Houston Texans are 17-point underdogs in a playoff game despite the fact that they have their starting quarterback healthy. Even if this were in Houston, the New England Patriots would be double-digit favorites.

In 2016, the Texans have only lost by more than 17 points in three of their 17 games. Those were their first three losses in the season, all on the road against teams that had a combined record of 13-2 at the time.

The bottom line is that since Week 7, Houston hasn't lost a game by that volume. Since that gameweek, the Patriots have only won two games by that volume, with the last two games of the season coming against backup quarterbacks.

Seventeen points is too much for any NFL team that has ridden the road to the playoffs. Bite the bullet and roll with Brock Osweiler and Co.

The pick: Houston +17

Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Best home line: Kansas City -1

Best away line: Pittsburgh +1.5

This might be the easiest pick for the playoffs. As a head coach in the NFL, Andy Reid has a straight up record of 16-2 in 18 games off of a bye week. On Sunday, his Kansas City Chiefs are one-point favorites at home.

That means at Heinz Field, despite Reid's mathematically unreasonable stretch with extra time to prepare, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be about five-point favorites. That's without even mentioning the fact Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger used a walking boot after Pittsburgh's wild-card win over the Miami Dolphins.

Roethlisberger often returns too early from injury, which leads to negative value on the Steelers for about a week or two. Toughing it out may help Pittsburgh on the field, but it could hinder his play in a cold playoff game.

We're riding with Reid's boys here.

The pick: Kansas City -1

Green Bay vs. Dallas

LM Otero/Associated Press

Best home line: Dallas -5

Best away line: Green Bay +4

At home, the Dallas Cowboys have the fourth-best margin of victory in 2016, and the second-best margin of victory against the spread this season, per TeamRankings.com. On the road, against the spread, in just about any category, it would be hard to call the Green Bay Packers more than anything but a middle-of-the-pack squad.

Potentially without wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who suffered a rib injury against the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round, the Packers will be without the NFL leader in touchdown receptions. That matters, especially when Green Bay has struggled to score on the ground this season and the team's top backs might be Christine Michael and fullback Aaron Ripkowski.

The Packers also have massive cornerback liabilities, which showed up against the Giants before Odell Beckham Jr. caught a case of the drops. If the Cowboys can just play to their averages, they are going to win this game. This line should be closer to a touchdown than a field-goal game.

The pick: Dallas -5