Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players Ahead of the 2017 Australian Open
The northern-hemisphere winter just got warmer for tennis fans who tune into summer at the 2017 Australian Open. World No. 1 Andy Murray looks to win his first title Down Under, but rival Novak Djokovic is looking for his seventh championship at his favorite major.
Other talented contenders will be formidable challengers with title aspirations of their own. The draw is sprinkled with legends, hard-nosed veterans and cutting-edge youngsters who all bring their weapons to the year's first Grand Slam venue.
Will it be a shocking return to glory for Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal? Is Nick Kyrgios ready to give his home country a great run? Is Murray about ready to put his stamp on his own age of dominance? Or will Djokovic keep Melbourne in the palm of his ruling fist?
Our countdown differs from the ATP rankings because it is not an accumulation of a year's points on the tour. Instead, we rank the players according to their chances to win the Australian Open, placing the most weight on each player's recent momentum, skills on Melbourne's Plexicushion hard courts and potential opponents from the draw.
10. Roger Federer
1 of 10
The last time Federer competed on tour he lost a tight five-set semifinal battle at Wimbledon to Milos Raonic. Unfortunately, the Swiss maestro had to bow out of the remainder of the 2016 tennis season because of a knee injury.
He makes his return with the No. 17 ranking and a lot of questions about how quickly he can regain his best form.
Does he still have his graceful quickness and offensive smoothness? Can he recover between the grind of multiple matches over two weeks? Will he be the Roger Federer we saw one year ago?
At his peak (2004-07), Federer dominated the Australian Open for three titles and gained his fourth and final title in 2010, the only one on the current Plexicushion surface.
The groundstrokes sit up longer for his opponent and the pace is a little slower than he would like late in his career. He's going to have to serve big and compensate with the kind of net effectiveness he had under former coach Stefan Edberg.
The Australian Open draw will also be an extreme challenge because of his lower ranking. He is slated to face a couple of qualifiers, which could present a hot, motivated player who wants to pull off a career highlight. By the third round, he could meet Tomas Berdych, although the Czech has been Federer's bunny in recent years.
Federer might then have to deal with No. 5 seed Kei Nishikori in the fourth round, with Murray in the on-deck circle for the quarterfinals. That's as tough as it gets.
Projection: Fourth Round
9. Grigor Dimitrov
2 of 10
Overrated? Grigor Dimitrov has more often been judged on his potential than his results, but things are starting to click for the dynamic Bulgarian who has the total skills package to be a star.
Since late summer, the 25-year-old has scored impressive victories over Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori—all top-10 opponents. His ranking has soared from No. 40 to No. 15, and he's a hot player after winning Brisbane last week.
Dimitrov has always had exceptional footwork and magnificent shotmaking. But he has needed to mature with his conditioning and shrug off the bad tastes of a drought that came after three titles and a Wimbledon semifinal appearance by summer 2014. He looks stronger and more willing to take on anyone in the world, and he's a legitimate threat to play in the second weekend.
Three years ago, he had world No. 1 Rafael Nadal reeling for a near two-sets deficit in the 2014 Australian quarterfinals, so Dimitrov must feel he can do better than fourth- and third-round exits the past two years.
The slow hard-court surface is great for his defense, and it gives him time to unload his forehand. That's important because for all the attention his single backhand receives, it's still a weakness that needs more power and depth.
Unfortunately for Dimitrov, it's a tough early first week. Young Korean star Hyeon Chung could be a threat in the second round, and the experienced veteran Richard Gasquet should be waiting in the third.
Surviving that, Novak Djokovic looms large for a potential blockbuster match. Dimitrov might pull it off, but the Serb makes it hard for him to go further.
Projection: Fourth Round
8. Alexander Zverev
3 of 10
OK, this might be insane or a year early, but 19-year-old Alexander Zverev is the real deal. There's a good chance he will go out in the third or fourth round, but he also has the kind of ceiling that could see him bloom into a champion quicker than expected.
Few tennis observers expect him to be 1990 Pete Sampras or 2005 Rafael Nadal, but the German will eventually carve out his own star, probably sooner than later. He is a lanky 6'6" with whip-like groundstrokes and world-class footwork.
Zverev will need to gain more physical strength, but he showed a lot of mettle a few months ago when he defeated Stan Wawrinka for his first career title and demonstrated that he is not afraid to take on the biggest stars. He could be ahead of schedule to beat the best.
He could get his chance to soar in the third round against Rafael Nadal, a match that might be a coin toss. If it's anything like their encounter last year at Indian Wells, it will be a thriller with Zverev's added experience and Nadal's determination to get back to the top in 2017.
If Zverev is the victor, he could be the fourth-round favorite against Gael Monfils or another survivor. Then he could get missile-serving Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals. We'll see how well he handles these formidable challenges.
Projection: Third Round or Quarterfinals
7. Rafael Nadal
4 of 10
Rafael Nadal probably should have won a couple more Australian Open titles during his prime years, but he will always have his epic weekend over Fernando Verdasco and Roger Federer to win the 2009 championship.
Near misses at 2012 and 2014 were a couple finals he would like to have back, and although winning this tournament is a real long shot, the Spanish warrior is still a top-10-caliber player.
The court surface is not clay, but it's the next best option for Nadal, producing bigger tennis-ball bounces and the languid heat that the Spaniard has always seemed to welcome with cool indifference.
More importantly, can he serve strong and hit his forehand with penetrating depth?
The first couple rounds should be victories over veteran players, but then it gets interesting with the third- round clash against Zverev. If Nadal wins, he should be favored to get to a quarterfinal match against Raonic. They split three-set matches at preseason Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, and last week's contest at Brisbane, Australia.
It's too early to break down a Nadal-Djokovic semifinal, so we'll cover that if it happens.
Projection: Quarterfinals
6. Kei Nishikori
5 of 10
Could 2017 be a breakout year for Japanese star Kei Nishikori?
He has continued to play excellent tennis and has inched closer for more chances to defeat the top superstars. Never mind that he lost to Dimitrov at Brisbane last week, he has been getting to more semifinals and finals the past year, and he has potential for a last-four spot or better at Melbourne.
Nishikori's athleticism and defensive speed make him an unusual hybrid of quick-strike offender and great defender. He's not overpowering, but Melbourne's surface should help him return better against the power players. He has the consistency and intelligence to outlast nearly the entire draw.
His path is fairly straightforward to the fourth round where he should be able to handle Tomas Berdych or Roger Federer, unless the latter is back to his 2015 form.
Even so, Nishikori would likely have to get by Andy Murray in the quarterfinals, the same scenario he pulled off last September at the U.S. Open. Just don’t expect the Scot to take it easy in this one.
Projection: Quarterfinals
5. Nick Kyrgios
6 of 10
There are more proven players than Nick Kyrgios who did not make our top 10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Dominic Thiem and David Goffin are more stable and poised players, but the Australian has home-run power and a greater chance to score gold at Melbourne.
The 21-year-old has enormous serving power and hits a heavy forehand. He's a great athlete who can slam overheads like prime-time Pete Sampras. Now it's just a case of whether Kyrgios can stay steady with his backhand, play with added patience in front of his home country and keep his composure.
Kyrgios should cruise through his first three matches, barring a meltdown or inspired play from Pablo Cuevas. Then we can measure if he is ready for the big time with a fourth-round grudge match against Stan Wawrinka, the streaky Swiss with the big groundstrokes and penchant for getting stronger with each successive round.
If he plays his A-game, Kyrgios could advance, but Wawrinka has the mentality to prepare for and endure this kind of match.
If Kyrgios gets to the quarterfinals, he's going to have to earn it. If he wins, he has a great chance at continuing right on to the semifinals. That's a strong possibility.
Projection: Fourth Round or Semifinals
4. Milos Raonic
7 of 10
Milos Raonic is not a natural tennis athlete with his big body and long legs, but the Canadian is perhaps the most committed, improved star on tour.
Once known more for his enormous serve, the 26-year-old has progressed with his groundstrokes, defense, net play and attacking intelligence. He was also a semifinalist at Melbourne and finalist at Wimbledon last year.
He nearly beat Murray at the Australian Open semifinal last year, but injuries hampered him in the final two sets, and he lost a heartbreaking five-setter. He earned his No. 3 ranking with the big-match wins he hopes to have over the next two weeks. If so, he's one of the handful of stars who can win the Australian Open.
Barring strong challenges from Nadal or Zverev in the quarterfinals, Raonic is the likely contender to take on Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. He is capable of getting the upset, but it's more likely that he will stop there. At least he can defend his rankings points by matching 2016.
Projection: Semifinals
3. Stan Wawrinka
8 of 10
He’s the brand new U.S. Open champion and holder of three different major titles in three years, but somehow Stan Wawrinka will always have to face the music.
The burly Swiss has become one of the toughest big-match players on tour, carrying big groundstrokes and the nerves to stare right back at Djokovic, Federer, Murray or whoever crosses his path.
The 31-year-old got his breakthrough by defeating an injured Nadal in the 2014 Australian Open final. Despite some uneven play and occasional lapses, Wawrinka has become one of the greatest late bloomers in tennis history. He remains a strong threat to win on the Plexicushion surface that gives him more time to wind up his offensive strokes.
While it's easy to look ahead to a possible fourth-round showdown with Nick Kyrgios, Wawrinka could have his hands full in the first two rounds.
The ever-dangerous Martin Klizan will play with no pressure and could score the upset. Federico Delbonis or Steve Johnson could be troublesome veterans in the second round. There are no easy matches if he is to get a shot at Murray in the semifinals.
Projection: Fourth Round, Semifinal or possible Champion
2. Andy Murray
9 of 10
Most tennis observers see Murray and Djokovic as co-favorites. However you pick these two, it's clear that there is a bigger gap between No. 2 and No. 3. While Raonic and Wawrinka could spring semifinal upsets, there are fewer questions about the Scot than anyone on tour.
Murray is the hot player with an amazing charge to the No. 1 ranking. He recently had his 28-match winning streak snapped by Djokovic, but there's also nobody more resilient and prepared to bounce back. He is ready to put aside the agony of losing five Australian Open finals (2010 to Federer and 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2016 to Djokovic), and it's possible he will have to get through both of these rivals if he is to get his fourth career major.
Among many other things to like about Murray, he is the least likely player to have an off day or suffer an early upset. He might have to defeat Federer or Nishikori in the quarterfinals, Wawrinka or Marin Cilic a round later and then Djokovic.
If we have learned anything about Murray, it's that he now knows how to take on tough opponents and outlast them with his superior conditioning and toughness in tight matches. Yet Nishikori was problematic at the U.S. Open, and Federer's best play can trump the Scot.
The hype and speculation for Murray has heightened, and it still feels like he's going to get his final against Djokovic or whoever else gets there.
Projection: Final
1. Novak Djokovic
10 of 10
We picked Novak Djokovic as our pre-tournament favorite, but it guarantees nothing. Even if he is the best player on the planet and the all-time King of Australia, the Serb comes in with a lot to prove.
Will he play like the legend who briefly held the Grand Slam of tennis? Or is he still vulnerable to facing match points against the likes of Fernando Verdasco (see last week in Brisbane)?
Historically, Djokovic has six of the nine possible titles since the Australian Open turned to the slower Plexicushion surface in 2008. Along the way, he has defeated all the great players, including Federer, Nadal, Murray and Wawrinka.
The only one who stops Djokovic is himself, which was an important reminder when he escaped 100 unforced errors, poorly executed drop shots and push strokes from Gilles Simon in the fourth round. Of course, the Serb did win the championship, and that's what matters.
So it's fitting that he gets Verdasco in the first round and possibly a resurgent talent in fourth-round opponent Dimitrov, who might just be scratching the surface of his abilities.
But Djokovic is also a dogged competitor who can turn a match on a dime and streak to the finish line. If he's locked in, he's the best there is—Murray or not.
Projection: Champion
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