SEC Q&A: Has SEC Finally Lost Its Grip on Undisputed Conference Supremacy?
SEC, you have a problem.
An ACC problem.
The ACC champion Clemson Tigers had a comeback for the ages on Monday night, overcoming a two-score deficit to unseat SEC champion, defending national champion and previously undefeated juggernaut Alabama 35-31 in a title game for the ages.
It was a fitting end to a subpar season for the once-proud conference.
What does it mean moving forward? That question and more are answered in this edition of SEC Q&A.
Without a doubt, the SEC has lost the ability to call itself the best conference in the country.
In fact, it might have a hard time claiming the No. 2 spot after a miserable 2016 season.
Clemson's win caps off a season in which the ACC went 10-4 against the SEC and 9-3 in bowl games (4-1 vs. the SEC) and produced the national champion and a team in Florida State that won a New Year's Six bowl over a very talented Michigan program.
The SEC, on the other hand, sputtered to a 6-7 bowl record, saw its only other New Year's Six team—Auburn—get blown out of the Superdome in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, had Arkansas blow a 24-point lead to Virginia Tech and witnessed Texas A&M go down to Kansas State in the Lone Star State.
Yikes.
I'd go so far as to say that, despite Ohio State's shutout loss to Clemson in the national semifinal, the Big Ten is still better than the SEC this year. The Buckeyes are still solid, they just didn't match up well against a Clemson defense that destroys underwhelming offensive lines. Michigan is still very much a Top 10 team, Penn State looked great in the Rose Bowl loss to USC and Wisconsin isn't exactly a pushover (ask LSU about that).
SEC quarterback play was abysmal in 2016, and many of those guys, like Auburn's Sean White and Texas A&M's Trevor Knight, got hurt. As a result, quarterback-dependent systems sputtered.
In Alabama's case, quarterback Jalen Hurts was protected by the coaching staff—which gave the true freshman simple game plans on a weekly basis—all year. That doesn't mean Alabama was a bad team. It just meant that it was, in part, a product of a weak conference.
That could change quickly. Hurts, Georgia's Jacob Eason, South Carolina's Jake Bentley and Ole Miss' Shea Patterson all should thrive after playing as true freshmen. Nick Fitzgerald was a monster on the ground at Mississippi State in the second half of the season. Austin Allen and Drew Lock quietly threw for more than 3,000 yards at Arkansas and Missouri, respectively. Auburn has more stability now with former Baylor signal-caller Jarrett Stidham in the house with White.
That said, though, conference prestige is a relic of systems past.
In the BCS age, perception mattered. It's a big reason why one-loss Auburn was a shoo-in to the BCS National Championship Game following the 2013 season despite the fact that one-loss Michigan State, whose only loss was to defending national runner-up Notre Dame, had just upset Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
With two more spots in the meaningful postseason now, teams are judged more on their worth than their conference's. Ohio State won the national title out of a rather weak Big 10 in 2014. The committee recognized that when they slid in the Buckeyes over Baylor and TCU.
No, not at all.
Alabama's loss had nothing to do with former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin's absence, current offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian's presence or head coach Nick Saban's decision to make a change a week before the title game.
It had everything to do with Clemson being a better and more complete football team than Alabama.
Hurts has a great future, but he's raw. He's young. He doesn't have the ability to stretch the field deep consistently, nor did Alabama give him the chance to stretch the field deep consistently in pressure-packed situations this year.
Its ability to claw back in games and put games away with defensive and special teams touchdowns (15 on the year) took a ton of pressure off Hurts and allowed the staff to keep game plans relatively simple on a consistent basis.
Why change?
Why would Kiffin mess with what works with a true freshman quarterback in the middle of the season?
Why would Sarkisian mix things up with a week to prepare for the biggest game of the year?
That'd be crazy.
This had nothing to do with the Kiffin, Sarkisian or the change. It had everything to do with Hurts being a true freshman who didn't solidify the starting job until the season already started. As a result, Alabama wasn't able to develop itself into a team that was as complete as Clemson.
Alabama's offense is growing. Clemson hit its growth spurt three years ago.
Auburn and LSU are the first two teams that come to mind.
For Auburn, just look at its Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma. It was a microcosm of the entire season.
When White was healthy, the offense clicked, the Tigers cruised down for a score on the opening drive and all looked well. Then White got hurt and continued to play, while the offense struggled. When he left the game for good, the offense fell off a cliff.
Stidham will likely win the starting job and White's presence will prevent that fall from being as drastic next year. Running backs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson will be back, as well as a loaded group of wide receivers and a defense that should thrive with young potential stars like linemen Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown.
LSU is in good shape too.
The defense shouldn't miss a beat now that David Aranda is entrenched as the coordinator, and talent has never been an issue on that side of the ball for the Tigers.
What's more, full-time head coach Ed Orgeron made a fantastic hire luring Matt Canada from Pitt to run the offense. Canada's system is much more flexible than the one employed by former head coach Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and has old-school roots but is flexible enough to incorporate tempo and zone-read principles if it suits the starting quarterback.
That quarterback is a question, though.
Danny Etling will be back in 2017 but was up and down at times in 2016. He completed just 53.3 percent of his passes against ranked competition and looked confused by top-tier defenses like Alabama and Florida in November. If he can progress in the offseason or LSU can find a reinforcement either from within or through transfer, Orgeron's crew will be in the mix.
If I had to pick right now, Georgia would be my pick to win the SEC East.
Getting Nick Chubb and Sony Michel back at running back is enormous for the growth of rising sophomore quarterback Jacob Eason. Wide receiver Riley Ridley showed flashes of brilliance as a true freshman a year ago. Defensive lineman Trenton Thompson and linebacker Lorenzo Carter looked like superstars in the Liberty Bowl. And head coach Kirby Smart should be ready to go after getting his feet wet as a first-time head coach in 2016.
What's more, it's hard to trust Tennessee after its pending roster depletion and the inability of head coach Butch Jones to manage expectations successfully a year ago. It's hard to trust Florida with a new-look defense and lingering quarterback issues. It's hard to trust any other team in the East.
Next season should be Georgia's season.
The door is wide open, the division is still a mess and Smart has plenty of weapons on the roster who can become stars.
If Smart can't win the East with it, rumblings about whether he's fit to be a head coach in the SEC should begin to rise.
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