CFP Championship Game Betting: Clemson vs. Alabama Odds, Analysis and Pick

After all that's happened over the last four-plus months, college football's national championship comes down to a rematch of last year's title game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Clemson Tigers. The Crimson Tide won that contest 45-40, but the Tigers covered as six-point underdogs.

CFP Championship Game point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 51, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 40.9-32.7 Crimson Tide (college football picks on every game)

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

Coach Dabo Swinney's outfit started 9-0 this year, lost to Pittsburgh on a game-ending field goal and then won its final three, including a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. That was enough to earn Clemson a return ticket to the College Football Playoff.

The Tigers then produced one of the most shocking results of this season, blanking Ohio State 31-0 in the Fiesta Bowl. Clemson led 10-0 after one quarter and never let the Buckeyes in the game, winning outright as a one-point underdog. The Tigers totally dominated, outgaining OSU 470-215, winning the ground battle 205-88 and grinding out a 36-24 advantage in time of possession.

Clemson has now outgained each of its last nine opponents, five of them by 200 yards or more. The Tigers are also 2-0, both straight up and against the spread, as underdogs on the betting line this season.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Coach Nick Saban's troops swept through this season's slate, starting with a romp over USC and finishing with an Iron Bowl victory over Auburn and a 54-16 bombing of Florida in the SEC Championship Game.

Alabama then reached the national championship game by fending off Washington last week 24-7 in the Peach Bowl. The Tide spotted the Huskies the game's first seven points and then scored the last 24, securing the cover as 14-point favorites on the college football lines when Bo Scarbrough bolted into the end zone from 68 yards out early in the fourth quarter.

Alabama outgained Washington 326-194, outrushed the Huskies 269-44 and won the turnover battle 3-0. The Tide have now outgained each of their last 11 opponents, five of them by 300 yards or more. Alabama is also 5-1 ATS this year when favored by two touchdowns or less.

Smart pick

Clemson is coming off a huge effort last week, but it could be ripe for a letdown. Also, Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson, while great, is still prone to turning the ball over, and the Crimson Tide defense is almost good for a touchdown per game this year.

Clemson's victory over Ohio State rings heavier in the ears of oddsmakers and the betting public than does Alabama's win over Washington, which helps keep the spread more manageable. Despite the unusual move of changing offensive coordinators midstream, the smart money for Monday night at sports betting sites still rolls with the Tide.

Betting trends

Alabama is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as the favorite.

The total has gone under in four of Alabama's last five games against teams with winning records.

The total has gone under in four of Clemson's last five games on a Monday.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.