Citrus Bowl Betting: LSU vs. Louisville Odds, Analysis and Pick

Heisman Trophy winners once carried a curse for both player and team in bowl games, but that's not been the case as of late. Heisman winners are actually 6-1 straight up and 4-3 against the spread over their last seven subsequent bowl games.

That trend bodes well for Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals heading into their battle with the LSU Tigers in the Citrus Bowl on New Year's Eve in Orlando, Florida.

Citrus Bowl point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.9-34.8 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers opened with high hopes for this season, but a 2-2 start—the two losses coming against Wisconsin and Auburn by a combined seven points—cost coach Les Miles his job. LSU then finished the season with a 5-2 run both SU and ATS under interim coach Ed Orgeron, which was enough to earn him the position for the near future and the Tigers their 17th straight bowl bid.

Most recently, LSU bombed Texas A&M in College Station, 54-39. The Tigers outgained the Aggies 622-472, outrushed them 298-188 and dominated time of possession by a 35/25 margin. So LSU has outgained eight of its last 10 opponents and outrushed nine of its last 10 foes. The Tigers are also 3-1 ATS this year when favored by 10 points or less.

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals started 4-0 this year and made a great impression when they blew out Florida State. Louisville then lost a crazy game at College Football Playoff-bound Clemson, but bounced back to win its next five games in a row and still had a shot at a spot in the CFP itself. Unfortunately, the Cardinals lost their last two games to Houston and Kentucky.

Nonetheless, Louisville is playing in a bowl for the seventh straight season.

The Cardinals almost had the Wildcats beat in that regular-season finale but fumbled the ball away inside the Kentucky red zone with two minutes to go, then let the Wildcats drive to a game-winning field goal. On the season, Louisville outgained 10 of 12 opponents and outrushed every one of them.

Smart pick

LSU running back Leonard Fournette has opted to sit out this game in preparation for a pro career, but the Tigers shouldn't miss him considering Derrius Guice ran for 285 yards in their last game. And while the numbers might say there's not much difference between these two defenses, LSU played a tougher schedule. Despite Heisman winners' recent roll of bowl success, the smart money in this spot on the Vegas lines takes the Tigers.

Betting trends

Louisville is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after consecutive losses.

Louisville is 21-8 SU in its last 29 games after losing as a favorite.

LSU is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.