Sun Bowl Betting: North Carolina vs. Stanford Odds, Analysis and Pick

Stanford is 4-2 outright and 5-1 against the spread over its last six bowl games, including romps in its last two bowls. North Carolina, on the other hand, is 2-6 straight up and 3-5 ATS over its last eight bowls, including an embarrassing loss to Baylor last year. The Pac-12 meets the ACC when the Cardinal tangle with the Tar Heels in the Sun Bowl on Friday afternoon in El Paso.

Sun Bowl point spread: The Cardinal opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.4-29.8 Cardinal (College football picks on every game)

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

UNC started 4-1 this year, with wins over Pittsburgh and Florida State and the loss coming against Georgia. Later, the Heels won three games in a row to reach 7-2, and while they lost two of their last three, they're playing in a bowl for the fourth year in a row.

North Carolina was going pretty good, winning seven of eight through the middle of the season, going 6-2 ATS. But a one-point loss to Duke hurt, and a 28-21 upset defeat at the hands of North Carolina State in the season finale didn't help. Perhaps that final loss sets up a bounce-back performance for the Tar Heels in this bowl.

UNC also averaged better than 33 points over its last five games.

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Stanford started 3-0 this year, with wins over Kansas State, USC and UCLA, then lost three of its next four games. But two of those defeats came against the two division champions in the Pac-12: Washington and Colorado. The Cardinal then finished the regular season with five straight victories, including a 41-17 romp over Rice in the finale.

SU outgained the Owls that day 534-291 and outrushed them 373-167. The Cardinal have outgained and outrushed each of their last five opponents while averaging just under 40 points per game. Also, Stanford is 6-4 ATS this year as a favorite on the betting line and 4-2 ATS when favored by single digits.

Smart pick

The Cardinal will play this game without the dangerous Christian McCaffrey, who's opting to sit out before heading into the NFL draft. But backup Bryce Love ran for 111 yards in the season finale and is averaging 7.4 yards per carry for the year. Meanwhile, the North Carolina defense is giving up over 230 yards per game on the ground. The smart money here at online betting sites plays the Cardinal.

Betting trends

Stanford is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in the postseason.

The total has gone over in 10 of Stanford's last 14 games against teams with winning records.

North Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four games against the Pac-12.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark.

All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.