Arizona Bowl Betting: South Alabama vs. Air Force Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Air Force Falcons finished the regular season with just two covers over their last eight games. Similarly, the South Alabama Jaguars finished their regular season on an 0-5 ATS slide. So it's two bad bets as of late meeting in the Arizona Bowl on Friday afternoon in Tuscon.

Arizona Bowl point spread: The Falcons opened as 14-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 37.4-23.2 Falcons (College football picks on every game)

Why the South Alabama Jaguars can cover the spread

USA opened this season in grand fashion, rallying to upset Mississippi State in Starkville 21-20 as a 27-point underdog. A month later the Jaguars upset eventual Mountain West champion San Diego State 42-24 as 19-point underdogs. Finally, needing a victory in its season finale to become bowl-eligible, South Alabama defeated New Mexico State 35-28.

So the Jaguars are back in a bowl, after missing out last season.

South Alabama outgained the Aggies in that final game 521-463. So the Jags have now outgained each of their last five opponents. As well, USA is 3-1 ATS this season as a double-digit dog.

Why the Air Force Falcons can cover the spread

Air Force started this season 4-0, with a win over Navy and then lost three close games in a row, including one at Mountain West divisional champion Wyoming and one in overtime against Hawaii. But the Falcons then finished with five wins in a row, capped off by a 27-20 upset of Boise State in the season finale. So Air Force is making its ninth bowl appearance in the last 10 seasons.

The Falcons, who rank third in the country in rushing at 323 yards per game, outrushed the Broncos that day 314-84. So they've now outrushed each of their last six opponents by at least 105 yards, three of them by at least 300 yards.

Also, while senior quarterback Nate Romine went down with an ankle injury back in October, sophomore Arion Worthman came in and directed Air Force to four victories in which it averaged 37 points per game.

Smart pick

The Jaguars had some luck against some of the tougher opponents on their schedule this year, but when a team that gives up more than 200 yards per game on the ground goes against a team that averages more than 300 yards per game on the ground, trouble usually follows. The smart money here at sports betting sites flies with the Falcons.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Air Force's last eight games.

Air Force is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in December.

South Alabama is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.