2016-17 ACC NCAA Basketball Primer, Power Rankings Heading into League Play
Billed in the preseason as the clear-cut best college basketball conference in the country, the Atlantic Coast Conference has not disappointed.
One-third of the teams in the ACC will enter the start of conference play with just one loss. Six others (11 total) have been beaten two or fewer times. And of those 17 losses, 14 have come away from home against teams likely to reach the NCAA tournament.
The only major surprises thus far are that Wake Forest is a year ahead of schedule and that Syracuse might need the ACC's auto bid to go dancing. The net result, though, is that this is still a league likely to send at least 10 teams to the 2017 NCAA tournament.
In preparation for Wednesday afternoon's conference opener between Florida State and Wake Forest, we've compiled a primer for the ACC. There are current power rankings, projected standings, freshmen to watch, Player of the Year candidates—the whole nine yards.
If you were too busy with football in November and December to watch much college basketball, this is your chance to get up to speed on what might be Louisville's conference to lose.
Power Rankings
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1. Louisville (11-1)—Defense wins championships, and Louisville has the best defense in the nation. The offense is a work in progress, but that didn't stop the Cardinals from winning games against Purdue and Kentucky. If they could've just held on to that 22-point lead over Baylor, Louisville would likely be No. 1 in the AP Top 25 right now.
2. Virginia (10-1)—The defense is every bit as good as usual, and the true road win over California is one of the best wins this conference has picked up to date. I easily could have put the Cavaliers at No. 1 ahead of the Cardinals, but they play each other on Wednesday to help clear up that ranking.
3. Duke (12-1)—The Blue Devils struggled with Elon and Tennessee State in the past week and have not won a game against a currently ranked team. Throw in yet another Grayson Allen tripping fiasco and several early injuries to key freshmen, and this Duke team isn't nearly what we thought it would be. The Blue Devils are probably still the favorites to win the national championship, but it's wide-open for debate now.
4. North Carolina (11-2)—In reality, it's 1a through 1d. The top four in the ACC would probably go at least 12-4 in a neutral-court round robin against any other conference's top four. But we had to rank someone here. Sorry, Tar Heels, but with two losses and a couple of home scares against Davidson and Tennessee, you drew the short straw.
5. Notre Dame (10-2)—Hard-fought neutral-court losses to Villanova and Purdue may have said more about this team than its wins over Colorado, Iowa and Northwestern. Matt Farrell has unexpectedly become one of the most valuable players in the entire country.
6. Clemson (9-2)—The Tigers are 3-0 against the SEC (vs. Georgia, at Alabama, at South Carolina) and nearly won neutral-court games against Xavier and Oklahoma despite playing those games without Shelton Mitchell or Elijah Thomas. I had Clemson at No. 6 in the preseason ACC predictions and have seen nothing to suggest it can't be at least that good.
7. Florida State (12-1)—The Seminoles blew a huge second-half lead against Temple and nearly did the same against Florida. They will need to show more killer instinct to capitalize on the 12 early wins.
8. Virginia Tech (10-1)—Six of the 10 wins have come against teams outside the KenPom.com top 275, but the Hokies did win at Michigan and nearly won a neutral-court game against Texas A&M. They're lurking in the middle of the pack and could make a huge statement in the ACC home opener against Duke.
9. Wake Forest (9-3)—This team played well on the road against Xavier and Northwestern and might surprise some people by winning seven or eight ACC games. Sophomores John Collins and Keyshawn Woods have been outstanding. The Demon Deacons just picked a bad year in the wrong conference to be above average. They'd probably finish no worse than fifth in the SEC, but good luck in the ACC.
10. Miami (9-2)—Young guys have been hit or miss (mostly miss) against quality opponents, but defense is going to keep the 'Canes in a lot of games. If the offense eventually catches up and cuts down on turnovers, this team could finish in the top five in the ACC.
11. North Carolina State (10-2)—The Wolfpack lost by a double-digit margin in the only two games against KenPom top-100 teams, but they didn't yet have Omer Yurtseven for either of those. Between the big man, Dennis Smith Jr., Terry Henderson and Abdul-Malik Abu, this team is going to put up a ton of points for the next few months.
12. Pittsburgh (10-2)—Aside from Boston College, no ACC team has suffered a worse loss than Pitt's neutral-court slip-up against Duquesne. The Panthers have a couple of quality wins over Marquette and Maryland, but that's the one nonconference result that will stand out on their resume for the rest of the year.
13. Syracuse (8-5)—Zero wins away from home. Zero wins against major-conference opponents. Zero effort last week against St. John's. Zero chance of making the NCAA tournament if it started today.
14. Georgia Tech (7-4)—Ben Lammers is having a nice breakout junior year, but the Yellow Jackets have a big mountain to climb before they're competitive in this conference again.
15. Boston College (7-6)—When you're losing home games to Nicholls State and Hartford, it's going to be a long ACC season. According to KenPom, BC's best chance of winning a game the rest of the way is a home game against Pittsburgh. The Eagles still only have a 24 percent chance in that one.
Biggest Lessons Learned from Nonconference Play
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Pittsburgh has the highest-scoring duo in the conference
Michael Young and Jamel Artis had been solid for the Panthers in each of the past two years, but they've taken things to a whole new level as seniors.
Artis has embraced his role as point-forward, averaging 20.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, while Young is setting all sorts of career highs at 22.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. Young has also expanded his game, shooting 46.7 percent from three-point range and already attempting more triples (30) than he did in the last two years combined.
Lack of defense may be a problem, but Pittsburgh can put points on the board in a hurry.
Virginia didn't need Austin Nichols after all
Austin Nichols, the former shot-blocking aficionado from Memphis, was supposed to be the most important transfer in the country. He was No. 21 on CBSSports.com's ranking of the top 100 (and one) players in the preseason—highest among Cavaliers and sixth in the ACC.
But Nichols missed the start of the season due to a suspension and appeared in just one game before being dismissed from the team.
The Cavaliers haven't missed a beat, though, because Isaiah Wilkins is the most underappreciated player in the nation for a second straight year. He isn't much of a scorer, but he is leading the country in box plus/minus as a result of his excellent work as the anchor of Virginia's pack-line defense.
The best transfer has been Torin Dorn
Torin Dorn averaged a dozen points per game two years ago with Charlotte and has been even better in Raleigh with North Carolina State. The sophomore shooting guard is averaging 15.1 points and 6.8 rebounds while connecting on 46.9 percent of his three-point attempts.
Playing with a point guard like Dennis Smith Jr. makes everyone look better, but Dorn has been the big pleasant surprise on this team. With Turkish big man Omer Yurtseven now eligible and already playing well, the Wolfpack have five guys averaging at least 12 points per game. Their resume is nothing special at the moment, but they're going to win quite a few games in conference play.
Top Storylines to Watch
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How many bids?
It is a painfully down year for a lot of the usual suspects for multiple bids. Unless BYU turns things around, it'll just be Gonzaga and Saint Mary's from the West Coast Conference. The Missouri Valley Conference is Wichita State and not much else. The Mountain West Conference isn't even that promising. And the over/under for combined tournament teams from the Atlantic 10 and American Athletic Conference may well be four.
Even some of the major conferences aren't looking that great. The Pac-12 has four ranked teams and a plethora of pathetic resumes after that. The SEC might send five teams, but Florida and Texas A&M blew a lot of nonconference opportunities that could come back to haunt that league.
But those 36 at-large bids need to come from somewhere. Based on how the ACC performed as a whole in nonconference play, nine bids seems like a lock, 10 is a reasonable possibility and 11 isn't crazy. There will be a lot of friendly fire over the course of the next 10 weeks, but there will also be about 10 quality wins doled out each week.
Any penalties for the Tar Heels?
The college basketball story that just refuses to die was back in the news this month, as North Carolina was issued a third notice of allegations related to the university's academic scandal. The infamous Wainstein report was published 26 months ago—three months before Deflategate was part of our national lexicon—but the school/basketball program has yet to face any sort of repercussions from it.
Syracuse self-imposed a postseason ban two years ago. Louisville did it last season. After yet another chapter in this story, could North Carolina keep that undesirable trend alive for the ACC for a third year? If so, it would certainly impact the number of bids the conference gets.
Will Georgia Tech or Boston College beat anyone?
They can't both go winless since they play each other once, but the Yellow Jackets and Eagles legitimately might go a combined 1-35 this year. If that's what happens, it would help increase the answer to the first question on this list.
The ACC has 13 teams in the KenPom top 60. Georgia Tech is 140. Boston College is 215. And they are both downright dreadful on offense. Virginia held Georgia Tech to 28 points in a game two years ago, and a repeat performance is a possibility.
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Rivalry Games and Can't-Miss Matchups
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Virginia at Louisville (Dec. 28)/Louisville at Virginia (Feb. 6)
If you like points and tempo, go watch The Citadel or Savannah State. These two games are for the college basketball "purists" who love to see guys committed on the defensive end. The Cardinals are No. 1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Cavaliers are No. 2. In the four times they've waged war since Louisville joined the ACC, the average score of the losing team is only 49.3, and I'd take the under on that number this year.
Clemson at Florida State (Feb. 5)/Florida State at Clemson (Feb. 25)
This pair of games is under the radar for now, but this is a battle between good teams desperate to break short tournament droughts. Both the Tigers and Seminoles have finished above .500 in each of the past three seasons with nothing to show for it. By the time February rolls around, though, expect these to be games between teams jostling for position in the field as opposed to position on the wrong side of the bubble.
North Carolina at Duke (Feb. 9)/Duke at North Carolina (March 4)
You may have heard these teams have some history together. You may have also heard they're both among the eight best teams in the nation this season. It would be hard to top some of the epic clashes they've had in recent years. Maybe we'll get lucky and Grayson Allen will trip a Tar Heel who is not on his way to a paper class and college basketball Twitter will literally implode.
Freshmen to Watch
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The ACC landed 11 of the 30 highest-rated freshmen in the country, so it's no surprise the conference is loaded with quality first-year players. In fact, we could make one heck of a starting five out of what we've seen thus far.
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., North Carolina State: More on Smith in a bit, as he is our projected ACC Freshman of the Year. But after a lackluster opening week last month, he has been sensational, averaging 20.0 points, 6.1 assists and 4.0 rebounds over his last eight games.
SG: Kyle Guy, Virginia: Guy hasn't even broken into Virginia's starting lineup yet, but he's second on the team in scoring and has been red-hot in December, shooting 64.8 percent from the field and 56.3 percent from beyond the arc.
SF: Jayson Tatum, Duke: He didn't make his collegiate debut until December, but he was well worth the wait. Tatum is averaging 15.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 2.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Once he starts making some more three-pointers (4-of-15 thus far), it's game over for opposing teams.
PF: Jonathan Isaac, Florida State: Isaac missed three games with a hip flexor injury and hasn't looked quite right in the three games since returning, but he was superb in November. Isaac put up 15.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and a combined 2.4 steals and blocks in his first seven games.
C: Tony Bradley, North Carolina: Like Guy, Bradley hasn't been starting for North Carolina, but it hasn't stopped him from making a huge impact. The man-child is leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, averaging 21.7 points and 14.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. In fact, on a per-40 basis, Bradley is better than Kentucky's Julius Randle was in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers and free-throw attempts—aka everything except for fouls committed.
And let's not forget Harry Giles (Duke) or Omer Yurtseven (North Carolina State), who have each appeared in only two games thus far. If they're not on your radar, they need to be.
Top ACC Player of the Year Candidates
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Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame
Forwards who are 6'5" aren't supposed to average double-doubles, but Bonzie Colson doesn't care. Notre Dame's de facto center is putting up 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Even more impressive, he is one of the best free-throw shooters in the conference at 90.7 percent.
Joel Berry II, North Carolina
Excluding the game against Radford in which he suffered an ankle injury, Joel Berry II is averaging 16.2 points and 4.8 assists per game. He is lethal from three-point range and has been even better than Colson at the free-throw line (91.7 percent). Moreover, the Tar Heels struggled against Davidson and Tennessee without him, proving how important he is to their cause.
Amile Jefferson, Duke
Where would Duke be if Amile Jefferson hadn't received a medical redshirt for last season? Duke's frontcourt star has averaged 14.2 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. Given how short-handed the Blue Devils were for the first few weeks of the season, though, his 2.2 personal fouls per game might be the most valuable.
Luke Kennard, Duke
We weren't even sure Luke Kennard would be a starter, but there hasn't been a more valuable player in the country. The game against Maine where he scored 35 points on 16 shots while Grayson Allen and Frank Jackson sat on the bench was his magnum opus. Dropping 29 on Florida three days later wasn't too shabby, either. And in that loss to Kansas that led everyone to move Frank Mason III to the top of their national POY rankings, Kennard was better than Mason, finishing with 22 points, five assists and five rebounds.
Predicting the 2016-17 ACC Awards
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Player of the Year: Luke Kennard, Duke
Just like we all expected, Duke's primary shooting guard is the runaway favorite for ACC POY and one of the top early candidates for the Wooden Award. We were just all wrong about who Duke's primary shooting guard would be. Luke Kennard has been sensational, averaging 20.4 points per game and putting up significantly better shooting percentages than last season while logging a ton of minutes. He has scored at least 20 in five of his last six.
Freshman of the Year: Dennis Smith Jr., North Carolina State
There are a ton of great candidates for this one, but Dennis Smith Jr. is averaging more points, assists and steals per game than any of them. Maybe it goes to Duke's Jayson Tatum or Virginia's Kyle Guy if he continues to score like he has for the past few games, but Smith is the leader in the clubhouse and still a strong candidate for the No. 1 overall draft pick in June.
Coach of the Year: Mike Brey, Notre Dame
Mike Brey was named the America East Coach of the Year in 1998 and the Big East Coach of the Year in 2007, 2008 and 2011. Time to add some ACC hardware to that mantle.
This one is three years in the making. Notre Dame was just plain bad in 2013-14 before nearly ending Kentucky's quest for 40-0 in the Elite Eight the following year. Despite losing Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton, Brey led the Fighting Irish to another great season last year. And now, after losing Demetrius Jackson and Zach Auguste, Brey still somehow has one of the better teams in the country.
The Fighting Irish probably won't finish in the top four in the ACC this year, but they'll be close, which is more than we expected.
ACC Favorites and Dark Horse
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The Favorite: Louisville Cardinals
You could rank the top four teams in this conference in any order that you want, so projecting a favorite just boils down to the schedule.
Virginia plays two games each against Louisville and North Carolina and has arguably the third-toughest double-dip (Virginia Tech) of the four favorites. Coupled with road games against Clemson, Notre Dame and North Carolina State (toward the end of the season when Omer Yurtseven should be playing like a lottery pick), there are just too many potential losses to see the Cavaliers winning 14 games.
Likewise, North Carolina plays two games each against Duke and Virginia and has early road games against Clemson and Wake Forest that will be tougher than they would be later in the season with Theo Pinson back in the mix. The Tar Heels also close the season with eight consecutive games of Tier A strength, according to KenPom, which is one heck of a gauntlet to run through.
That leaves Duke and Louisville on top in a tug-of-war that should be determined on Jan. 14 when Duke travels to the KFC Yum! Center for its only game against the Cardinals. Duke also plays its only games against Virginia and Notre Dame on the road, making Louisville the favorite to win the ACC.
KenPom has all four projected for a 13-5 ACC record, though, so it's anyone's game. Regardless of who earns the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament, there will be a ton of battle-tested teams ready for NCAA play.
The Dark Horse: Clemson Tigers
People have been saying for years that Brad Brownell might be the best X's and O's coach in the ACC, and he finally has the pieces to do some damage. Also, it's a pretty favorable schedule for the Tigers, who have their four double-dips against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Florida State. If they can steal one from North Carolina or Virginia at home, they have a reasonable chance to win at least 13 games.
Who Makes the Tournament?
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Shoo-ins: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia
The only way one of these teams misses the NCAA tournament is if we're headed for a third consecutive season with an ACC team self-imposing a postseason ban. Considering North Carolina recently received its third notice of allegations in regard to the paper classes scandal, maybe we shouldn't rule out that possibility.
Probably: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
This league is far too good to not send at least 60 percent of its teams to the NCAA tournament, and these five have yet to suffer anything close to a bad loss. Moreover, not one of them has the misfortune of playing more than five total games against the top four teams in the ACC, so they should each be able to cobble together something close to a .500 record. Coupled with no bad losses, that'll be worth a ticket to the Big Dance this year.
Maybe: North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Wake Forest probably belongs in the "unlikely" bucket, but the Demon Deacons already have three true road wins and played well on the road against Northwestern and Xavier. They have a lot to prove, but they're at least entering conference play with a strong RPI.
Pittsburgh has the toughest road ahead with two games each against Virginia, Louisville and North Carolina, not to mention Syracuse. Even all three of the Panthers' games against Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest come on the road. They'll have one heck of a strength of schedule to show the selection committee, but what will their record say?
Unlikely: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Boston College
Go ahead and argue it's too early to count out the Orange, but their three best wins of the season came at home against Monmouth, Eastern Michigan and Boston University. If that's a tournament resume, I must have missed the memo that the field is expanding to 168 teams this year. Syracuse could go 11-7 against its unbalanced conference schedule (two each against BC, GT and Pitt) and still have work to do in the ACC tournament.
Predicting the 2016-17 ACC Standings
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1. Louisville (14-4)
2. Duke (14-4)
3. Virginia (13-5)
4. North Carolina (12-6)
5. Notre Dame (11-7)
6. Clemson (11-7)
7. Florida State (10-8)
8. North Carolina State (9-9)
9. Virginia Tech (9-9)
10. Miami (9-9)
11. Syracuse (8-10)
12. Wake Forest (8-10)
13. Pittsburgh (6-12)
14. Georgia Tech (1-17)
15. Boston College (0-18)
Stats and computer profile data are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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