UFC 207 Primer: TJ Dillashaw vs. John Lineker Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The UFC's end-of-the-year, big-card tradition continues in 2016, with UFC 207. The event featuresRonda Rousey's return, a pair of title fights and an impressive roster of matchups, from main card to Fight Pass prelims. Among the many intriguing contests is a bantamweight showdown between surging contender John Lineker and former champion TJ Dillashaw.
Dillashaw won the division's title in 2014, defeating Renan Barao, who had risen to prominence in Dominick Cruz's injury-induced absence. When Cruz returned in 2016, he reclaimed his throne from Dillashaw, tumbling The Ultimate Fighter veteran back to contendership. Dillashaw has since rebounded with a victory and looks to make it two in a row at UFC 207.
Lineker, a former flyweight who had too many issues making the 125-pound cutoff, has never looked better since moving to bantamweight last year. He's rallied for four straight wins (six straight overall), including a pair of finishes in his new weight class.
Dillashaw vs. Lineker has the distinct smell of a title eliminator. The question is, which fighter will emerge with the W?
In preparation for the bantamweight scrap, Bleacher Report examines the matchup, finding the places each fighter holds an edge and ultimately determining which man is the probable victor.
Striking
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Though he entered the UFC as a wrestling-based mixed martial artist, Dillashaw has developed into one of the best strikers in the bantamweight division. His impressive output and exemplary movement played a large role in his title win and defenses and allowed him to remain competitive opposite the uniquely masterful Dominick Cruz.
But if Dillashaw owes most of his success to striking, Lineker owes nearly all of his success to his hands. The Brazilian is one of the hardest hitters in the UFC's lower weight classes and has never failed to capture victory inside the Octagon when he's been able to remain upright.
Dillashaw has an edge in terms of accuracy and defense, and he'll probably hit Lineker more than Lineker hits him. But one shot from Dillashaw won't do the same amount of damage one shot from Lineker will do in return.
That's the question here: Can Lineker land enough big shots to counteract Dillashaw's speed and movement? It's debatable, but I like his chances. The way Lineker closes the distance and mixes in bodyshots will serve him well against Dillashaw, and so he gets the edge here.
Edge: Lineker
Grappling
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Lineker rarely shoots for a takedown but boasts an impressive success rate when he does. Partly, this success comes from his opponents' worry over his punching power.
Defensively, Lineker has been solid since Ali Bagautinov exposed him back in 2014. Since giving up six takedowns in that fight, Lineker has capitulated only twice in his last six outings. Over that period, he has shut down 18 shots.
Dillashaw has succeeded on just two of his last 18 takedown attempts, which is not what you'd expect from a fighter with his background. Even with some solid competition, that's a concerning trend.
When playing defense, Dillashaw has rebuffed every takedown launched against him, with the exception of those from Dominick Cruz. His primary concern in this bout won't be that Lineker takes him down, but if the Brazilian tries to catch him off guard, Dillashaw has the talent to adjust.
The edge is perhaps not as wide as many will assume, but Dillashaw does hold a grappling advantage.
Edge: Dillashaw
Submissions
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Here's a surprising fact: Lineker has more submission wins than Dillashaw. He also has 37 fights to Dillashaw's 16, so don't look too surprised.
Neither fighter tends to go after the submission too aggressively. According to FightMetric, Dillashaw averages one attempt per 15 minutes, Lineker 0.7.
Defensively, both are solid, but Lineker has shown some cracks. Whereas Dillashaw has never tapped, Lineker has given up the submission on three occasions. Only one of those has come since 2009, though, so it's not like submission defense is some glaring weakness for the Brazilian.
Still, Dillashaw's defensive superiority gives him an edge here. It will be surprising, though, if the bout ends with a submission for either man.
Edge: Dillashaw
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X-Factors
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Lineker's X-Factor: Cage Control
Dillashaw has developed into an excellent striker. He's outlanded five of his last six foes, with the exception once again being Cruz.
Lineker, even in some of his wins, does not always outland his opponent, but he has become good at forcing exchanges. Even at flyweight, which features some of the sport's most frenetic combat, Lineker was able to track his enemies and land powerful shots. Sometimes that meant taking some back, but the Brazilian rarely came out the worse for the trade.
A key part of Lineker's success is controlled aggression. Another part is his willingness to target the body, which requires less leverage from the 5'3" power-puncher.
Lineker's ability to cut off Dillashaw's escape routes will be key in this matchup. If he manages to trap the former champion, even for brief moments, a world of fight-ending possibilities open for him. If he's incapable, it will be a long, frustrating night.
Dillashaw's X-Factor: Varying His Offense
Dillashaw employs solid striking defense, but his propensity to attack so frequently makes it impossible for him to avoid damage. Historically, he has absorbed nearly three strikes per minute. According to FightMetric, Lineker lands 5.30 during that same time frame.
In other words, even is Dillashaw turns in a typically impressive performance, he'll be eating numerous punches from one of the division's hardest hitters. They might not always be clean, powerful shots, but the numbers demonstrate the basic risk.
To combat the hazard, Dillashaw may look to mix things up. He has the wrestling chops to do that, even though his focus on striking has tempered his takedown successes of late. If Dillashaw diversifies his approach and keeps Lineker from planting his feet, then his chances of success grow exponentially.
Prediction
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Dillashaw enters the bout as a decisive favorite, and it's not difficult to understand why. While Lineker has looked outstanding lately, his victories have merely placed him upon the precipice of a breakthrough. Dillashaw has already broken through.
And while cast-down champions are often seen as sliding, Dillashaw's defeat did not damage his status all that much. Cruz is a revered champion, and Dillashaw lost a competitive decision.
But I'm taking the upset, and here's why.
Both men have demonstrated a decisive penchant for striking at this point in their respective careers, and while Dillashaw may turn to his wrestling against Lineker, the Brazilian has bettered himself in that area. Dillashaw's grappling edge is not enough so that merely choosing to wrestle wins the contest for him.
On the feet, Dillashaw has evolved an in-and-out style that relies on movement and volume, while Lineker is all about the power. But the way the Brazilian employs his power game is a good method for foiling Dillashaw.
Lineker cuts off the cage, forces flight-or-exchange scenarios and adds to his range and accuracy by digging to the body. Eventually, his connections will render Dillashaw incapable, and Lineker will emerge as the next bantamweight title contestant.
Prediction: Lineker def. Dillashaw, TKO, Round 2
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