Birmingham Bowl Betting: USF vs. South Carolina Odds, Analysis and Pick

South Carolina is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in its last four bowl outings, including back-to-back outright victories as an underdog. The Gamecocks find themselves bowl dogs again, this time against offensive-minded South Florida in the Birmingham Bowl on December 29 at historic Legion Field. 

Birmingham Bowl point spread: The Bulls opened as 11-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.0-26.6 Bulls (College football picks on every game)

Why the USF Bulls can cover the spread

USF started 3-0 this season then lost to Florida State. The Bulls then won three more in a row before losing to eventual AAC champion Temple, and they won their last four games, beating good Navy and Memphis teams and finishing with a 48-31 victory over Central Florida. South Florida is playing in a bowl for the second straight season.

The Bulls outgained the Knights in that regular-season finale by 101 yards and outrushed them by 287 yards on their way toward covering as a 13-point favorite. USF outgained six of its last eight opponents and outrushed seven of its last eight foes, going 5-3 ATS along the way.

South Florida is also 8-3 ATS this year when favored on the betting line, and it is 5-2 ATS when favored by double digits.

Why the South Carolina Gamecocks can cover the spread

South Carolina started 2-4 this season, its first under head coach Will Muschamp. But the Gamecocks then won four of their next five games—with the only loss in that span coming against SEC East champion Florida—to become bowl-eligible a season after going 3-9. South Carolina finished with a thud, losing to College Football Playoff qualifier Clemson 56-7, but perhaps that sets the stage for a bounce-back effort in this bowl.

The Gamecocks struggled offensively for much of this season, but they pepped up and went 4-2 after inserting freshman Jake Bentley as the starter at quarterback. He completed 63.3 percent of his throws while accumulating six touchdown passes against just two interceptions.

Finally, South Carolina is 2-1-1 ATS this year as a double-digit dog.

Smart pick

South Florida is playing through a coaching change, as Willie Taggart bolted for Oregon, and it will be led by an interim head coach for this bowl. While the Bulls hold a considerable advantage on offense, South Carolina owns the better defense. Also, the Gamecocks improved as this season progressed. South Carolina looks like the smart pick in this spot at sports betting sites, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in five of South Carolina's last seven games in the postseason.

South Carolina is 7-0 SU in its last seven games against the AAC.

The total has gone over in five of South Florida's last six games.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.