Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting: Army vs. North Texas Odds, Analysis and Pick

North Texas won its last bowl game, but that was three years ago. Army also won its last bowl, but that was six years ago.

In a rematch of a game from earlier this season, the Mean Green will shoot for a second straight upset of the Black Knights, this time in the Heart of Dallas Bowl on Dec. 27 at the Cotton Bowl.

Heart of Dallas Bowl point spread: The Black Knights opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.6-17.0 Black Knights (College football picks on every game)

Why the Army Black Knights can cover the spread

After going 2-10 last year, Army won seven games this year to make its first bowl since 2010. The Knights started 3-0, with a win over eventual American Athletic Conference champion Temple, then lost five of their next seven games. But they then won 60-3 over Morgan State and upset Navy 21-17, halting a 14-game losing streak against the Midshipmen.

Army outgained Navy by 150 yards, outrushed the Mids by 204 yards and held a 41-19 advantage in time of possession, winning that game outright as a six-point underdog. The Knights have now outgained and outrushed 10 of 12 opponents this season.

Army, of course, does most of its damage on the ground, ranking second in the country at 328 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Knights defense ranks fifth overall, holding foes to just 283 yards per game.

Why the North Texas Mean Green can cover the spread

A season after going 1-11, North Texas is back in a bowl for the first time in three years. The Mean Green started 4-3, which included a 35-18 upset of Army at West Point in October. North Texas spotted the Knights the first seven points of the game, then used a 28-3 run to take control on its way to an outright victory as a 17.5-point underdog.

The Mean Green ran the ball 33 times for 202 yards that day, while the defense forced seven Army turnovers, returning one for a touchdown. On the season, North Texas is 5-4-1 against the spread as an underdog and 3-2-1 ATS when getting double digits.

Smart pick

North Texas upset Army in Week 8, but the Knights outplayed the Mean Green that day. They outrushed North Texas by 100 yards and held the ball for over 37 minutes. Problem was, they also committed seven turnovers. Odds are, though, they won't turn the ball over seven times in this game. And come on, a 5-7 team from Conference USA doesn't deserve a bowl bid or your cash. The smart money here at online betting sites takes Army.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Army's last six games against teams with losing records.

The total has gone under in four of North Texas' last five games in December.

North Texas is 1-11 straight up in its last 12 games against teams with winning records.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.