2017 NFL Draft: Draft Radar Heading into NFL Week 16
Bowl season is officially underway, giving many of the top prospects in college football one last shot in the spotlight. A talented San Diego State team had little trouble handling the Houston Cougars, leaving the big question: what's next for Greg Ward Jr.?
Meanwhile, an under-the-radar runner at Toledo did not disappoint in his final college showing, and a scat back from Southern Miss will have an interesting decision to make after lighting up Louisiana Lafayette.
Finally, how should the top 10 shake out as the draft order remains relatively stagnant? Let's break it all down.
Stock Up
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Kyle Kelley, DL, San Diego State
The senior defensive end had a huge fourth-quarter sack which was his second of the day. He also tallied two other quarterback pressures while making four solo stops. Kelley has proven to be both a consistent run defender and pass-rusher in the Aztecs defense and had a great performance to finish his college career.
Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss
The 5’9", 195-pound Smith ran all over Louisiana Lafayette, racking up 133 rushing yards (93 of them coming after contact) while also forcing 10 missed tackles. He finished the day with three total touchdowns, putting in a fantastic effort to create on his own. Smith will probably return for his senior year to avoid being overlooked in a spectacular running back class this spring.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo
After surprisingly returning to school for his senior season, Hunt has flown under the radar quite a bit. He finished his career at Toledo with a solid performance, rushing for 120 yards, two touchdowns and forcing seven missed tackles. With the amount of depth the 2017 running back class holds, Hunt may slide into Day 3. If so, an NFL team would be getting great value as he has starter potential at the next level.
Stock Down
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Stock down
Greg Ward Jr., QB, Houston
Ward was always a long shot as an NFL quarterback prospect, but for quite some time he continuously beat the odds. His final game for Houston unfortunately did not go as planned, as he was consistently under pressure and struggled immensely.
He threw four interceptions (surprisingly all four came when he was not pressured) and failed to throw a touchdown. At a listed height of 5’11" and weight of 190 pounds, the NFL might force him to convert to slot receiver if his speed tests out well at the NFL combine (or Houston’s pro day).
Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma
Mixon is a constant topic of conversation on draft radar as he is a superb running back talent, but his previous off-field arrest has made his draft stock controversial. This week, the video from two years ago of him knocking out a woman in public was released.
How will an NFL team draft Mixon and justify it to their fan base? While reports have circled how he was provoked, there is no excuse for that reaction and it will be interesting to see if he does get selected.
Steven Taylor, LB, Houston
Taylor has been a tackling machine for the Cougars, but his final college game did not go as planned. He missed a few tackles as Houston’s front seven was gashed in the ground attack. Undersized San Diego State runner Donnel Pumphrey has given plenty of teams problems throughout his career, but what he did to Houston was still eye-opening.
At 6’1", 225 pounds there will be questions surrounding his size to play in an NFL front seven. His best shot will be as a rotational linebacker brought in on passing downs.
Eye-Popping Prospect Numbers of the Year: Playmaker Edition
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There is only one player this edition of eye-popping numbers can start with: Florida State running back Dalvin Cook. The Junior has forced a nation-leading 80 missed tackles in the run game while averaging nearly four yards after contact.
The hot debate this offseason is going to be between Cook and LSU’s Leonard Fournette: which runner deserves to come off the board first? If I was looking for a player that can completely create on his own, especially as a pure home run hitter, I’m taking Cook.
The two runner-ups in this category are Kareem Hunt with 76 missed tackles forced and Donnel Pumphrey with 73. As mentioned before, neither disappointed this weekend in there bowl games and will now prepare for the draft.
One player that might be more elusive than all three of those mentioned above is Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. He forced 85 total missed tackles last year combining the ground and passing game. While injuries held him back in his final college season, he should be an instant impact player in the NFL next season.
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Quarterback Controversy: What's the Final Verdict on Clemson's Deshaun Watson?
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One of the more controversial prospects in this year's NFL draft will be Clemson's Deshaun Watson. He's been brilliant for much of his college career, yet questions are already surrounding his transition to the NFL.
One report from Bleacher Report's Matt Miller had a director of college scouting claim he has the same concerns with him as Robert Griffin III.
There are a few problems I have with criticism such as the one above. Watson seems completely capable of making reads and getting the ball out, unlike RGIII who has consistently struggled in that area since the end of his fantastic NFL rookie season. As for his frame, keep in mind he is an underclassman expected to declare, a very young player that will only get bigger and stronger.
Should a team take Watson in the top five and instantly throw him into the fire? Absolutely not. As for a team picking in the second half of Round 1 that can let him sit for a little bit and acclimate to their offense? This almost seems like a no-brainer. He has the traits to excel and if a team fully invests in him, he could pay dividends down the road.
The True Shutdown Cornerback: Jalen 'Teez' Tabor
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Like many top prospects, it seems everyone has come full-circle on cornerback Jalen Tabor from Florida. His teammate Quincy Wilson flourished this year, taking away some of the spotlight from his teammate in the secondary.
Don't be fooled though, Tabor is the top corner in the 2017 class. In 12 games this season he was targeted 39 times, surrendering only 20 catches for a total of 276 yards. He allowed only one touchdown while intercepting four passes and breaking up six more. He's as smooth as they come in coverage, but his ability to break on the ball with an aggressive nature makes him a special player.
The 2017 NFL draft will feature a fantastic cornerback class, and there will be plenty of debate on how to stack the top five. My one suggestion? Keep Tabor at the top.
Mocking the Top 10 Picks
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1) Cleveland Browns - Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas A&M
Not much changes with this pick. The Browns take the best player on the board and get a game-changing pass-rusher.
2) San Francisco 49ers - Mitch Trubisky, QB, UNC
The Colin Kaepernick era will come to end after this season, but the 49ers have no answer to the future of their quarterback position. With Chip Kelly still in place, he gets a mobile passer that displays touch at all three levels of the field and will most likely start right away.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Jamal Adams, S, LSU
The Gus Bradley era is officially over, but Dave Caldwell is still in place at GM which could give quarterback Blake Bortles more time (not a great idea). The Jaguars have a hole at safety and get one of the best players in this draft in Adams. He has Eric Berry-type potential and with Jalen Ramsey already shining in their secondary, throwing on them will become even more difficult.
4) Chicago Bears - Jalen Tabor, CB, Florida
The Bears would be disappointed to not see the top quarterback fall into their lap here, but the consolation prize is the best shutdown cornerback in this draft class. Tabor is physical, aggressive and smooth in the secondary. He'd start right away in the Bears defense and give them a No. 1 cornerback for the future.
5) Tennessee Titans (From Rams) - Derek Barnett, EDGE, Tennessee
The Titans need to add a true No. 1 wide receiver for Marcus Mariota, but none warrant a top five selection in this class. Their defense has made a huge jump this year and landing a big-time pass-rusher in Barnett could take them to the next level.
6) New York Jets - Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
I'm breaking my own rule here by taking a running back this early for a team that has so many other needs, but Cook is a special offensive talent. The Jets currently have no sure-fire answer at quarterback and need to develop a rushing attack that scares the opposition. Cook's big-play ability could desperately help a franchise that needs to rally behind a superstar for a new generation.
7) San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
One can make the argument Allen is the safest prospect in this draft and his stock is beginning to feel quite similar to Leonard Williams from two years ago. He's smart, talented and works extremely hard.
With that being said, how high will the NFL value him? He's not a true "edge-rusher" but can certainly wreak havoc as a 4-3 defensive end, while also being extremely disruptive from the interior. Either way, the Chargers get a great player that should be a cornerstone for a decade.
8) Cleveland Browns (from Eagles) - Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
My gut feeling is that the Browns will trade this pick to the New England Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo, which would obviously wipe out the need for a quarterback. With that being said, Watson could have a really good draft process and elevate his name back into the Round 1 conversation. If Hue Jackson believes he could be a franchise passer, why pass on him in this situation?
9) Carolina Panthers - Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
The Panthers need to rebuild their secondary and get their defense back to the form they showed throughout the 2015 season. Jones is versatile and a complete cornerback that could excel under Ron Rivera.
10) Arizona Cardinals - DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
It's hard to believe the Cardinals are selecting this high, but unfortunately much of that has to do with the drop off in play from quarterback Carson Palmer this season. Kizer is the most physically gifted quarterback in this class (along with Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes) and it's hard to imagine a better scenario for him than working under Bruce Arians.
All advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
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