Bold Predictions for Boxing in 2017
It's that time of year again!
Out with the old and in with the new.
So, here at Bleacher Report, that means it's time for our year-end tradition of making bold (and hopefully accurate) prognostications about what will happen in the sweet science over the coming 12 months.
We check in on some of the sport's biggest fighters and biggest potential fights.
Will there be any power shake-ups?
Who will end the year as the top fighter in the sport?
We'll answer all these questions and more.
These are 10 bold predictions for boxing in 2017!
Mayweather and Pacquiao Will Rematch in the Spring
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Let's get this one out of the way so you can commence reading about (some) topics that won't make you want to launch your computer off the desk and across the room.
When Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao met in May 2015, the "Fight of the Century" sold more than 4.4 million subscriptions on pay-per-view and generated a half-billion dollars in revenue.
That bears repeating.
It generated a half-billion dollars in revenue.
Lots of people made lots of money, and with the money fight market in boxing so depressed of late, there's zero reason why a rematch can't and won't happen in 2017.
Sure, there will be plenty of grumbling by fans and media. Many will swear not to buy the PPV and complain that a rematch of what by all accounts was a bland fight in the ring is simply a money grab designed to bilk hardcore fans once more.
Let us reassure you then.
That's exactly what this is.
And it'll work.
It won't make nearly as much money as the first fight, but it'll still make a killing, especially since no single fight in boxing today comes within a light-year of the hype that will surround this one. And you should always follow the money.
And enough of you will buy it to make the bean counters happy.
Vasyl Lomachenko Will End 2017 as the Top P4P Fighter
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You can make a case that Vasyl Lomachenko is the best pound-for-pound fighter in boxing right now.
The Ukrainian virtuoso has captured two world championships in as many weight classes and spent the second half of his 2016 battering a pair of world-class fighters.
Lomachenko blasted veteran tough guy Roman "Rocky" Martinez in June to capture a super featherweight championship via highlight-reel knockout and followed up by making Nicholas Walters quit on his stool in a fight where he made him look like an amateur who had never fought before.
We can wax poetic about his footwork, speed and boxing intelligence, but so many words have already been written on those subjects. All you need to do is put on one of his fights to see for yourself.
And the two-division champ (in only eight pro fights) only seems to be getting better.
That's a scary thought for the rest of boxing.
Lomachenko and his team have plenty of good options to choose from for an opening opponent in 2017.
A rematch with Orlando Salido, who beat Lomachenko in a rough 2014 fight after failing to make weight, has been on the table and is being discussed. There's also the possibility of a super featherweight unification bout with Francisco Vargas, should he make a successful defense in January against Miguel Berchelt.
Plus, a certain guy named Pacquiao could wind up in the mix before long.
The options are there for significant fights, and you'd be a fool to bet against Lomachenko, who will end next year as the undisputed top P4P fighter in boxing.
Sergey Kovalev Will Even the Score with Andre Ward
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Sergey Kovalev has every right to be upset with the scoring of his razor-thin decision loss to Andre Ward in November. The Russian scored an early knockdown and seemed to dominate the first half of the fight before dropping a verdict by one point on all three official cards.
According to Talking Boxing, a poll of 60 members of the boxing media conducted after the fight found that 44 had the fight in favor of the Russian champion; just 15 scored it for the challenger, and one had it a draw. It was a close fight, but Ward seemed to receive every possible benefit of the doubt.
An immediate rematch clause was built into the contract, which Kovalev has activated, and there's no reason under the sun (save for Ward's notorious difficulty when it comes to getting and staying active) why that fight shouldn't happen soon.
Ward is already making things difficult though. He received $5 million guaranteed for the fight, which bombed on PPV, and is demanding more for the rematch, per TMZ (h/t Boxing Scene). If the right deal doesn't come along, he said he might retire instead of take the rematch.
Let's assume/hope that doesn't happen.
The two will meet in a rematch, barring further ridiculousness.
And when it happens, Kovalev will learn the lessons of the first fight. He'll be aggressive throughout and not let Ward off the hook when he hurts him a second time. He'll finish the job and avenge his first career defeat in decisive fashion.
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Gennady Golovkin Will Get All the Belts
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Gennady Golovkin has been clear about his desire to capture all four middleweight championship belts and become the undisputed kingpin of one of boxing's glamour divisions. He's already three-fourths of the way there with only one piece of hardware outstanding.
GGG has a tall task ahead of him in the first quarter of the year.
He'll defend his WBA, WBC and IBF Middleweight Championships against secondary titlist Daniel Jacobs March 18 at Madison Square Garden in New York City on HBO pay-per-view. That's a big matchup of heavy hitters and represents the toughest challenge of the Kazakh bomber's career.
We think that fight will be interesting for however long it lasts, but Golovkin will ultimately send Jacobs down for the count.
That leaves just Billy Joe Saunders, who spent most of 2016 holding the WBO's middleweight belt hostage and then looked dreadful in his lone defense against virtually unknown Artur Akavov early in December.
Saunders was disappointed in his performance and lucky to get out with a win that could have just as easily gone the other way on the scorecards. He's nowhere near the orbit of Golovkin, but the pressure of running his mouth will catch up to him.
The Brit will take an interim fight before moving forward to the end of his reign.
That might come against Golovkin, if Saunders fancies himself getting smashed, or against Canelo Alvarez, who is now the WBO's mandatory challenger based exclusively on his star power, but either way the result will end the same.
GGG will end the year with all the belts because...
...He'll Beat Canelo
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Canelo Alvarez's star power is undeniable.
He's a tremendous fighter from a fighting-crazed nation, and being the biggest Mexican star in boxing is still an accolade that carries some considerable weight. It also carries a significant amount of responsibility. Mexican fans will support their guys to the ends of the earth, but they must abide by a certain warrior code.
Canelo's 2016 campaign tested the limits of many fans' patience.
He began the year by starching Amir Khan, a blown-up welterweight with a history of chin issues, in a middleweight bout before going back down to 154 pounds to blow out the overmatched Liam Smith.
The latter fight received considerable criticism given Smith's lack of reputation in the United States and Canelo's seemingly naked avoidance of Golovkin, which he demonstrated by vacating both a middleweight title and leaving the division altogether.
That avoidance cannot continue.
Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya recently told ESPN's First Take (h/t Dan Rafael of ESPN.com) that a fight between his cash cow and GGG would take place in the fall, but we all know in this business those types of promises don't carry any water. It's pen to paper that matters.
De La Hoya has taken the brunt of the criticism for the fight not happening, and there's a reason for that.
He doesn't want to risk his money maker, but he'll have no choice.
The heat will be too much, and GGG will knock out Canelo in September, reminding the Golden Boy of why De La Hoya never wanted to risk him in the first place.
Showtime Will Outperform HBO
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By all measures, 2016 was at best a trying year for HBO, long the premier home for cable boxing, as the network struggled to put on quality matchups in a year of shrinking budgets for the sweet science. The last couple of months salvaged something, but overall the year was a lost one.
You don't need to look hard to realize that trend is set to continue, at least into the early part of the new year.
HBO has only one network show on its calendar, and that won't take place until January 28.
Yes, Francisco Vargas vs. Miguel Berchelt and Takashi Miura vs. Miguel Roman has barnburner written all over it, but as of this writing, it's literally the only thing on the HBO calendar that isn't slated for PPV.
Miguel Cotto and James Kirkland will meet in what's certain to be a bomb of epic proportions on HBO PPV February 25. There's zero demand for that fight, and the fans are likely to steer clear in droves.
GGG-Jacobs will also be on PPV, though that's more defensible under the circumstances.
Showtime, on the other hand, has loaded up its first-quarter calendar.
Badou Jack and James DeGale will meet January 14 in a super middleweight unification fight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, followed two weeks later by a highly anticipated featherweight title rematch between Carl Frampton and Leo Santa Cruz.
Also on the latter card is a high-level match where Dejan Zlaticanin puts his WBC Lightweight Championship and unbeaten record on the line against fellow unbeaten former world champ Mikey Garcia.
Adrien Broner fights a couple of weeks later, and in perhaps the crown jewel, Keith Thurman and Danny Garcia meet March 4 in a welterweight unification showdown.
Meanwhile, HBO remains asleep at the wheel.
Ring Star Will Rise While Roc Nation Falls
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Richard Schaefer, who is best known for building Golden Boy Promotions into a powerhouse during his tenure as CEO of the company, returned to boxing in 2016 with the formation of Ring Star Promotions, his own promotional outfit.
That decision was altogether unsurprising, given Schaefer's deep ties to the sport and the many connections he has with fighters, sponsors, networks and managers. It was just a matter of time before he got the bug once the non-compete clause in his legal settlement with Golden Boy expired.
Schaefer is a shrewd boxing mind known for putting on quality fights.
His first card of the year was the December doubleheader that saw Abner Mares capture featherweight gold in the main event over Jesus Cuellar and Jermall Charlo paste Julian Williams in a grudge match.
It might have been the card of the year.
Schaefer's company will also co-promote the Frampton-Santa Cruz rematch that also carries a tremendous fight between Zlaticanin and Garcia as the support bout. That's two cards, two high-quality shows and more expected to be on the way.
Running opposite of Schaefer's Ring Star is Roc Nation Sports.
Roc Nation looked out of its depth for its promotion of Kovalev-Ward (the company promotes Ward), and the result was just about 160,000 buys on PPV for a fight that was the year's most significant, according to RingTV.com.
All Roc Nation's fault? No, but it was part of the problem.
Cotto also fights under its banner, and with one fight and $10 million left on his contract, the Puerto Rican has given Roc Nation the suicide mission of having to sell a PPV against Kirkland in a bout that nobody wants to see and will swim in the red financially.
But wait, it's likely Guillermo Rigondeaux will co-feature that PPV.
Roc Nation really isn't good at this boxing economics thing.
Gonzalez-Inoue Will Be Fight of the Year
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Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez ascended to the pound-for-pound throne shortly after the retirement of Floyd Mayweather and has held the title ever since. His last four fights have been on HBO platforms, giving him exposure to mainstream audiences after spending years as one of boxing's insider secrets.
He's already beaten a who's who of fighters in the lower weight classes, but with P4P supremacy and increased attention comes the demands to reset the bar higher and higher. A win over Carlos Cuadras in September—a Fight of the Year contender—was impressive, but we always want something more.
And we know who we want.
Naoya Inoue is a prodigy.
The 23-year-old has already captured world championships in multiple weight classes through his first 11 fights and has the type of style that presents a salivating matchup for Gonzalez and boxing fans in the new year.
With both men now possessing world championships at super flyweight, a unification bout between Gonzalez and Inoue—who have both shown an interest in the matchup in the past—would be a can't-miss event for HBO to help get its boxing brand back on track.
Not only will this fight come together—say in the second half of the year—but it will wind up being one of the greatest lower-weight fights in boxing history and the 2017 Fight of the Year.
Anthony Joshua Will Be the Top Heavyweight
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Anthony Joshua will end 2017 as the best heavyweight on the planet.
That's probably not much of a surprise, since he's ending 2016 with the same title.
The towering Brit struck while the iron was hot and snagged a world championship with an April demolition of Charles Martin. He then made a pair of successful defenses against Dominic Breazeale and Eric Molina.
He's now set for a megafight with former longtime divisional kingpin Wladimir Klitschko April 29 at Wembley Stadium in London. The fight is already a smashing success, with general admission tickets sold out and prices on the secondary market skyrocketing through the roof.
Not bad for a guy who started the year as a prospect, albeit one who was considered can't-miss.
This is your typical changing-of-the-guard moment for the division.
Klitschko is the old guard; he's still dangerous but clearly not the fighter who dominated the heavyweights during one of the division's most dominant runs.
Joshua should win, and he will win with a big right hand that establishes him as the beyond-a-doubt man to beat.
Deontay Wilder will be able to make a claim, but with the pair not certain to fight in 2017 (for what would be all the marbles that matter), the Brit will end the year as the top dog.
The Featherweight Division Will Sizzle
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The featherweight division is on fire right now.
Frampton and Santa Cruz are set for a January rematch of their summer slugfest, and the Irish fighter will be looking to establish his dominance over the division with a second win over the high-octane Mexican star.
The winner of that fight will have plenty of options for good fights going forward.
Abner Mares resurrected his career—despite being dismissed by most in the boxing community after a few tough years—with a hard-fought and clear win over Jesus Cuellar to claim his fourth world title in December. He remains firmly in the mix.
Mares dropped a decision to Santa Cruz in 2015, but a rematch would make sense from a competitive standpoint, regardless of whether Leo can unseat the Jackal and reclaim a world title. A fight with Frampton would also be enticing.
There's a ton of talent at 126 pounds, and that makes for a ton of potentially great matches in the new year.
Gary Russell Jr. and Lee Selby hold the other two world title belts, and beyond them are rising top contenders like Oscar Valdez and Joseph Diaz. The future of this division is bright, and it will produce several memorable matchups in 2017.
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