St. Petersburg Bowl Betting: Miami (Ohio) vs. Miss State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Mississippi State is 4-2 straight up in six bowl appearances under head coach Dan Mullen and 3-2-1 against the spread, including a victory and cover last year. The Bulldogs will shoot for more bowl success when they meet upstart Miami (Ohio) in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Dec. 26.

St. Petersburg Bowl point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 11.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.6-29.2, RedHawks (College football picks on every game)

Why Miami (Ohio) can cover the spread

Through the first two-and-a-half seasons under head coach Chuck Martin, the RedHawks were 5-25 SU, including an 0-6 start to this season. But a come-from-behind victory over Kent State back in October sparked something, and Miami finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak, capped off by another come-from-behind victory in its regular-season finale over Ball State.

The RedHawks tied for first place in the MAC East with Ohio but lost the tiebreaker.

Miami trailed the Cardinals 20-14 late, but quarterback Gus Ragland connected with wide receiver Sam Shisso for a 27-yard touchdown with five minutes left, and the RedHawks hung on to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010.

Miami is now 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since Ragland took over as the starting quarterback and, almost amazingly, 22-13-1 ATS over the last three seasons.

Why Mississippi State can cover the spread

MSU snapped a two-game losing streak in its season finale, romping rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl 55-20. The Bulldogs led the Rebels at the half 27-20 and then pulled away with a 28-0 second half, winning outright as 10-point underdogs.

On the day, Mississippi State piled up 566 yards of total offense, including 457 on the ground, as star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald popped off for 258 on just 14 carries, accounting for five touchdowns. And running back Aeris Williams added 191 more and two scores.

The Bulldogs have outgained three of their last five opponents and outrushed five of their last seven foes.

Smart pick

Miami has been a different team since having to make a change at quarterback, winning six straight and averaging 29.8 points per game. Mississippi State, meanwhile, doesn't even deserve to be in a bowl with its five victories. The Bulldogs might still win this game, but the RedHawks plus the points is the smart bet.

Betting trends

Mississippi State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games in December.

The total has gone under in 11 of Mississippi State's last 15 games after a win.

Miami is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.