Potato Bowl Betting: Idaho vs. Colorado State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Colorado State and Idaho both finished their regular seasons hot on the money, each covering their last seven spreads in a row. But the Rams will play as nearly two-touchdown favorites when they hook up with the Vandals in the Potato Bowl on December 22 in Boise.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl point spread: The Rams opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.3-28.3 Rams (College football picks on every game)

Why the Idaho Vandals can cover the spread

Idaho started 2-3 this season, then finished on a 6-1 run SU, 7-0 ATS to finish in a tie for third place in the Sun Belt Conference, earning its first bowl bid since 2009. The Vandals became bowl-eligible with a 47-14 win over Texas State in Week 10, then defeated South Alabama 38-31 and finished with a 37-12 victory over Georgia State.

Idaho outrushed the Panthers 149-92 and forced six turnovers. So the Vandals have now outrushed each of their last four opponents. Meanwhile, the Idaho defense has held three of its last four foes to 14 points or fewer. Maybe that's why the Vandals have won and covered their last four games.

Why the Colorado State Rams can cover the spread

The Rams finished with four wins in their last five games and seven covers in a row, following their 63-31 upset romp over eventual MWC champion San Diego State in the finale. CSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Aztecs seven minutes into the game, let that advantage dwindle to 21-17 and then scored 42 of the game's next 49 points on its way to the outright win as a 13-point dog.

Colorado State outgained San Diego State 507-377 and won the ground battle 291-194, and 81 of the Aztecs' rushing yards came on one meaningless play late in the game. The Rams have now outgained seven of their last eight opponents and outrushed four of their last five foes.

CSU is also 4-1 ATS as a favorite this year, and 2-0 ATS when favored by double digits.

Smart pick

Colorado State is playing in a bowl for the fourth straight year, Idaho for the first time in seven seasons, which might give the Rams an edge. But the Vandals played their best ball of the season down the stretch, discovering the semblance of a running game along the way. Colorado State might well still win this game, but the smart play at online betting sites is Idaho plus the points.

Betting trends

Colorado State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games.

The total has gone under in five of Colorado State's last seven games after a win.

Idaho is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.