New Orleans Bowl Betting: South. Miss vs. La-Lafayette Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns ended their regular season with three wins and four covers over their last four games. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles, on the other hand, finished with just two wins over their last seven games and with just one cover over their last eight outings. Still, Southern Miss is a short favorite for its New Orleans Bowl matchup with the Cajuns.

New Orleans Bowl point spread: The Golden Eagles opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.6-26.5 Ragin' Cajuns (College football picks on every game)

Why the Southern Miss Golden Eagles can cover the spread

The Eagles snapped a three-game losing streak in their regular-season finale and became bowl-eligible, upsetting Louisiana Tech 39-24. Southern Miss outgained the Bulldogs 426-254, as senior quarterback Nick Mullens, back after missing the previous two games to injury, connected on 29 of 33 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns against zero interceptions. The Eagles also held the ball for over 38 minutes and won the turnover battle 3-1.

Southern Miss actually outgained every opponent during the regular season except LSU. Nationally, the Golden Eagles rank 24th in total offense, averaging 475 yards per game, and 18th in total defense, allowing just 334 yards per game. And a pair of rankings like that are much more suggestive of an 8-4 team, even 9-3, rather than one that's 6-6. Unfortunately, a minus-16 turnover ratio, tied for second worst in the country, took a toll.

Why the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns can cover the spread

Through the first weekend of November, UL-Lafayette sat at 3-5 and looked like it would miss a bowl for the second straight season. But upsets of Georgia Southern and co-Sun Belt champion Arkansas State got the Cajuns to five wins, and a 30-3 victory over UL-Monroe in the finale secured bowl eligibility.

UL-Lafayette outrushed the Warhawks that day 240-116, won time of possession by a 38-22 margin and scored twice on defensive touchdowns, on its way to an easy cover as a six-point favorite. So the Cajuns have outgained and outrushed four of their last six opponents, going 5-1 against the spread in the process.

On the season, UL-Lafayette is 4-2 ATS as an underdog on the betting line.

Smart pick

The Cajuns finished well, while the Eagles did not, but it's hard to ignore the fact that Southern Miss outgained opponents this season by over 140 yards per game. If the Eagles can just avoid turning the ball over, they should win this game and cover this spread at online betting sites.

Betting trends

Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Louisiana-Lafayette.

The total has gone under in five of Louisiana-Lafayette's last seven games.

Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-2 straight up and ATS in its last nine games in December.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.