Orange Bowl Betting: Michigan vs. Florida State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Florida State is 4-2 in six bowl appearances under coach Jimbo Fisher but 0-3 against the spread over its last three bowls. Michigan is 1-0 both straight up and ATS in bowls under coach Jim Harbaugh. The ACC meets the Big Ten when the Seminoles clash with Wolverines in the 83rd edition of the Orange Bowl.

Capital One Orange Bowl point spread: The Wolverines opened as 6.5-point favorites.

OddsShark computer pick: Wolverines 39, Seminoles 28 (College football picks on every game)

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

Michigan just came one first-down spot away from a division title and a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game. Instead, the Wolverines ended their regular season with a tough 30-27 double-overtime loss at rival Ohio State.

Michigan led the Buckeyes in the third quarter 17-7 but allowed OSU to force overtime on a field goal at the buzzer. The Wolverines then nearly won the game in the second extra period when, protecting a three-point lead, they appeared to stuff Buckeyes quarterback JT Barrett on a 4th-and-1. But the zebras disagreed, and Ohio State scored a touchdown on the next play.

So both of Michigan's losses this season came down to the last play of the game. The Wolverines also out-gained 10 of 12 opponents this season and out-rushed eight of 12 foes.

Meanwhile, the Michigan defense held nine of 12 opponents to 14 or fewer points.

In their only bowl under Harbaugh, the Wolverines bombed Florida 41-7 in last year's Citrus Bowl, easily covering as four-point favorites.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU recovered from that crushing loss to Clemson in October to win its last four games, including a 31-13 rivalry victory over SEC East champion Florida in the season finale. The Seminoles only led the Gators 10-6 midway through the third quarter but scored touchdowns on back-to-back drives to take control on their way to the cover as nine-point favorites.

Florida State out-gained Florida 387-207 and out-rushed the Gators 249-58, as running back Dalvin Cook came up with his eighth 100-yard effort in the last nine games.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles defense held Florida to 0-for-12 on third downs, recorded six sacks and kept the Gators offense out of the end zone all day. Florida's only touchdown came on a fumble return.

Toss in earlier wins over Syracuse and Boston College, and Florida State has won its last three games by an average score of 40-11, going 3-0 ATS in the process. On the season, the Seminoles out-gained nine of 12 opponents and out-rushed 10 of 12 foes.

Smart pick

Florida State won its last four games, while Michigan lost two of its last three. Also, the Seminoles might be the underdogs here, but they can run the ball and play defense. The Wolverines might still win this game, but the smart pick takes FSU plus the points.

Betting trends

• The total has gone over in 16 of Michigan's last 20 games.
• Michigan is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after an ATS win.
• Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after a win.

All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, OddsShark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.