Alabama vs. Florida: Preview and Predictions for SEC Championship 2016

Alabama's place in the College Football Playoff is almost assuredly locked in place. The Crimson Tide have gone undefeated, have a non-conference win over USC on their resume and have just one win by less than a double-digit margin.

Even in a down year for the SEC, that's incredibly impressive.

Even if Alabama loses, they could remain the top seed in the playoff. So the SEC title game might actually be more important for Florida than it is for the Crimson Tide.

After all, a Gators win would guarantee their spot in the Sugar Bowl. Lose and Auburn likely gets the nod. 

But one lingering question remains: Do the Gators have any shot? Like, any chance at all of winning this game?

Probably not. But let's break down the matchup.

Preview

When	Where	Watch	Line
Saturday, Dec. 3	The Georgia Dome in Atlanta	CBS	Alabama (-24)

Just to be clear, Florida is a 24-point underdog in this game. To put that in perspective, no other team in a Power 5 title game is more than an 8.5-point underdog. Florida is the biggest underdog in the history of the SEC Championship game, according to Alex Martin Smith of SEC Country. So Vegas is pretty darn confident in an Alabama win.

And why not?

On offense, Alabama is 15th in the country in rushing (245.9 yards per game) and 19th in points per contest (39.4). Defensively, they give up the fewest yards (247), rush yards (68.7) and points (11.4) per game in the country.

According to B/R's Matt Miller, Alabama has eight players within his top-100 for the 2017 NFL draft, and five players with first-round grades. Four of the players that could be selected in the first round of this offseason's draft come on the defensive side of the ball (defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, linebacker Reuben Foster, edge-rushers Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson).

And that doesn't even include some of the team's dynamic underclassmen who won't be draft eligible, like quarterback and Heisman candidate Jalen Hurts (3,294 yards from scrimmage, 33 total touchdowns), running back Damien Harris (1,005 yards from scrimmage, four scores) and wideout Calvin Ridley (62 receptions for 684 yards and seven touchdowns).

ArDarius Stewart has been pretty darn good, too.

Top to bottom, Alabama is loaded. They don't have any glaring weaknesses. They won't face a team more talented on paper this season, which makes their most dangerous opponent, well, themselves.

"Alabama is our strongest competition," Crimson linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton told Paul Myerberg of USA Today. "We hold each other accountable. Coaches hold coaches accountable. Coaches hold players accountable. Players hold players accountable."

Head coach Nick Saban added:

"

The legacy of our team still lies ahead, in terms of what they can accomplish and what they can do. There’s a lot more out there for this team in terms of an SEC championship, which we still hold in very high esteem. That’s our next focus and that’s the next thing that we’re going to focus on. And what happens from there happens from there.

"

In other words, don't expect Alabama to look past this game.

So does Florida have a chance? Well, sure, but it's a slim one. To beat Alabama, you need to do a few things:

1. Force turnovers.
2. Get excellent play from your quarterback.
3. Play the best game of your season in every facet.

Florida has been decent at forcing turnovers throughout the year. The Gators are tied for 29th in interceptions (13) and tied for 53rd in fumbles recovered (eight). Beating Alabama will require winning the turnover battle by a significant margin, however.

Austin Appleby has been solid if unspectacular for Florida as well, throwing for 964 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 60 percent of his passes. He's been better than Luke Del Rio was, though being good against Alabama won't be enough.

He'll need to be great.

As for the last key to the game for Florida, they'll need to be nearly perfect. Scoring a defensive or special teams touchdown will be key. An inspired defensive performance is a must. They'll need to be well-rounded on offense. And even then, they'll likely need Alabama to have an off game.

Can all of those factors come together? Sure, it's possible.

Will they?

No, almost assuredly not.

Prediction: Alabama wins, 35-10.

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