Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

LSU is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in its last three meetings with Florida and 5-1 both SU and ATS over the last six encounters. The Tigers hope to continue their late-season resurgence when they host the SEC East-leading Gators on Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge.

Point spread: The Tigers opened as 10.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.2-22.0 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Florida moved its magic number for a berth in the SEC Championship Game to one with a 20-7 win over South Carolina last week. The Gators grabbed a 7-0 lead four minutes into the game on an Austin Appleby touchdown pass and held a 20-0 advantage well into the fourth quarter before allowing the Gamecocks to hit the board.

Unfortunately for Florida's financial backers, that late South Carolina score cost the Gators the cover as 13-point favorites. The Gators also lost two fumbles deep in South Carolina territory in the first half. Without those, they probably cover.

Florida outgained the Gamecocks 372-256 and won the ground battle 171-43, as sophomore running back Jordan Scarlett hit the 100-yard mark for the second time in the last four games. The Gators have now outgained and outrushed three of their last four opponents.

At 5-2 in conference play, Florida needs a win Saturday or one Tennessee loss to win the SEC East.

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers rebounded from that tough loss to rival Alabama two weeks ago to rip Arkansas in Fayetteville last week, 38-10. LSU took a 7-0 lead six minutes into the game on a Leonard Fournette touchdown run, extended that to 21-0 early in the second quarter and capped off the evening on Derrius Guice's 96-yard scoring jaunt with six minutes left.

LSU outgained the Razorbacks 547-291, outrushed them by a lopsided 390-81 and won time of possession by a 35/25 margin, on its way toward a rather easy cover as a 10-point road favorite.

The Tigers are now 4-1 both SU and ATS under interim head coach Ed Orgeron, scoring at least 38 points in each of those four wins/covers.

Smart pick

The team that's won the ground game in this rivalry is 8-0 both SU and ATS over the last eight meetings, and the team that's more likely to win the ground battle Saturday night is LSU. That's why the smart money at online betting sites in this spot rides the Tigers.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

LSU is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in Week 12.

The total has gone under in six of Florida's last eight games on the road.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.