Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Wisconsin owns the rivalry with Purdue as of late, winning the last 10 meetings in a row by an average of 23 points per game and going 9-1 against the spread. The Badgers are expected to run that streak to 11 when they bump up against the Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana, on Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Badgers opened as 26.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.0-8.2 Badgers (college football picks on every game)

Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

Wisconsin won its fourth game in a row last week, pounding Illinois 48-3. The Badgers scored a touchdown on their second possession of the game and led 21-3 after one quarter and 31-3 at the half on their way to an easy cover as 24-point favorites.

For the day, Wisconsin outgained the Illini 455-200, outrushed them 363-99 and won time of possession by a lopsided 42-18 margin. The Badgers defense also held the Illinois offense to an 0-of-9 performance on third-down conversions.

Wisconsin has now outgained and outrushed each of its last five opponents, including Ohio State.

At 5-2 in conference play, the Badgers are tied with Nebraska atop the Big Ten West. But Wisconsin also owns the tiebreaker on the Cornhuskers thanks to that 23-17 head-to-head overtime victory three week ago.

Why the Purdue Boilermakers can cover the spread

The case for Purdue is a little tougher to make. The Boilermakers have lost five games in a row, including a 45-17 decision last week at home against Northwestern. Purdue actually grabbed an early 10-0 lead on the Wildcats and trailed only 28-17 in the third quarter but gave up the game's final 17 points.

The Boilermakers produced nearly 400 yards of offense last week but turned the ball over four times, directly resulting in 17 Northwestern points.

Two weeks ago, Purdue gave Minnesota a good game up in Minneapolis, losing 44-31 but covering an 18-point spread. Just before that, the Boilermakers played Penn State to a tie at halftime before fading late. And just before that, they led at halftime at Nebraska and covered a 24-point spread. If Purdue can give something close to four quarters this week, it could cover.

Smart pick

Four touchdowns is a lot to deal with, but compared to the rest of Wisconsin's schedule this season, this game looks like a scrimmage. And Purdue just lost by four touchdowns to Northwestern. The smart bet here is the Badgers.

Betting trends

Wisconsin is 10-0 straight up and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Purdue.

The total has gone under in seven of Wisconsin's last 10 games against Purdue.

Purdue is 0-15 SU in its last 15 games in November.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.