New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints will try to sweep a season series against Carolina for the first time in four years when they take on the Panthers on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium.

The Saints are coming off a 25-23 home loss to the Denver Broncos, ending a five-game winning streak against the spread in which they went 4-1 straight up.

The Panthers are also coming off an outright defeat at home, a 20-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs as three-point favorites. That ended Carolina's brief two-game SU win streak, and marked the sixth time in nine games this season that the Panthers have scored 20 or fewer points.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 51.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.6-22.2 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints have scored 34 or more points on five occasions this season. The result has been an impressive performance at the sportsbooks, where they have covered in six of their last eight games overall, and in each of their past six road contests.

New Orleans has also won four of six SU against NFC South divisional rivals, and is an impressive 6-1 ATS in its past seven games, covering three times as betting underdogs.

Conversely, the Panthers have been a bitter disappointment when favored at home by three or more points. Carolina is winless SU and ATS in its past three such outings, averaging a feeble 13.7 points per game.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

While the Panthers may be struggling to generate offense, they have proved effective at shutting down opponents, holding them to 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.

Carolina has regularly piled up the points in dates with the Saints. The Panthers have averaged 36.75 points per game over their past four games against New Orleans, powered by 12 touchdown passes by quarterback Cam Newton.

The Panthers have been effective at containing opposing pivots in recent weeks, holding them to 280 or fewer passing yards in three of five games. Carolina's defense has also created havoc for Saints quarterback Drew Brees, tallying 15 total sacks and six interceptions over its past five games against him.

Smart pick

The Saints outlasted Carolina in a 41-38 Week 7 home win and have now pushed the point total over in four straight meetings.

The Panthers have struggled to rebound from that loss and must also overcome a dismal 2-5 SU record in appearances on Thursday night.

Look for New Orleans to rebound with a crucial SU and ATS victory over the fading Panthers, who have fallen to a 5.3 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to PredictionMachine.com.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in 10 of the Saints' last 13 games on the road against the Panthers.

The visiting team is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games in this matchup.

The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.