Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Oklahoma State is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in four meetings with TCU since the latter joined the Big 12 four years ago. The Cowboys shoot to stay alive in this season's Big 12 race when they battle the Frogs on Saturday afternoon down in Fort Worth.

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.4-38.2 Cowboys (College football picks on every game)

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread

Since starting 2-2 this season, OSU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS after outlasting Texas Tech last week 45-44. The Cowboys took a 7-0 lead on their first possession of the game and never trailed after that, although things got a little crazy at times. Oklahoma State led 14-0, allowed the Red Raiders to tie the score at 28-28 just before halftime, but scored the first 10 points out of the locker room and held on from there.

In the end, the Cowboys won it when Texas Tech's kicker missed an extra-point attempt with just under two minutes to go.

Oklahoma State racked up 605 yards of offense on the day—210 on the ground at 395 through the air. The Cowboys have now outgained four of their last five opponents.

At 6-1 in conference play, OSU trails 7-0 Oklahoma by one game for the lead in the Big 12. But a victory this week sets up a showdown with the Sooners for all the marbles in the Bedlam game December 3.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

TCU snapped a two-game losing streak with a 62-22 bashing of Baylor in Waco two weeks ago. The Frogs then enjoyed last week off.

TCU spotted the Bears a touchdown on the second play from scrimmage, then it scored the next 31 points to take control on its way to a shockingly easy victory as a seven-point underdog. TCU outgained Baylor 688-415, piling up 431 yards on the ground, as running back Kyle Hicks exploded for 192 yards and five touchdowns.

The Frogs have now outgained six of nine opponents this season.

At 5-4 overall, TCU needs one win against either Oklahoma State, Texas or Kansas State to become bowl-eligible.

Smart pick

The Cowboys are hot—and a bit lucky. TCU, meanwhile, is coming off perhaps its best performance of this season, one that will be hard to repeat immediately. The smart money here takes the points with Oklahoma State.

Betting trends

Oklahoma State is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games against TCU.

The total has gone under in three of Oklahoma State's last four games against TCU.

TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.