Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Big spreads are tripping up both Louisville and Houston. The Cardinals, while remaining in the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff, are just 2-4-1 against the spread over their last seven games, while the Cougars are 0-5 ATS their last five times out. In an interesting late-season nonconference matchup, Louisville visits Houston on Thursday night.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 47.8-34.4 Cardinals (College football picks on every game)

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals carry a five-game winning streak into Thursday night, after last week's 44-12 win over Wake Forest. Louisville actually trailed the Demon Deacons 12-0 late into the second quarter, then scored the final 44 points of the game. Unfortunately for their financial backers, the Cardinals were favored by 34 points.

Louisville ended up outgaining Wake 491-214, rushing for 346 yards, often in gouges. The Cardinals have now outgained and outrushed every opponent this season, almost always by large margins.

At 9-1 overall and 7-1 in ACC play, it still appears Louisville will miss out on playing for its conference championship. But the Cardinals could still make the CFP, and a victory Thursday night, on the road against a quality opponent, would certainly help.

Why the Houston Cougars can cover the spread

Since that stumble against SMU three weeks ago, Houston has won two straight, including a 30-18 decision over Tulane last week. The Cougars scored 77 seconds into the game on a fumble recovery in the end zone, led 14-0 nine minutes in and held on from there. Houston actually got outgained by the Green Wave 341-287 but scored nine points on defense.

Two weeks ago the Cougars rallied from a 24-3 third-quarter deficit to beat Central Florida 31-24. So they've now won 14 games in a row at TDECU Stadium.

Last year Houston upset the Cardinals in Louisville 34-31, winning the ground battle that day by a 226-70 margin.

Smart pick

Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is iffy for this game, but regardless of his status, Louisville still owns edges in the running games and on defense. Also, Houston won this matchup last year, but the Cougars aren't quite the same team that played that day, while the Cardinals are better. The smart money at sports betting sites here lies with Louisville.

Betting trends

Louisville is 6-2 SU in its last eight games against Houston.

The total has gone over in 11 of Louisville's last 15 games.

Louisville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road against teams with winning records.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.