Complete Guide to UFC Fight Nights 99 and 100: Hall-Mousasi and Bader-Nogueira
The UFC returns to action a week after its epic UFC 205 event with a pair of Fight Night cards on opposite sides of the globe on Saturday.
In Belfast, Northern Ireland, Uriah Hall and Gegard Mousasi clash for a second time in the headliner of a decent event that lost its scheduled main event of Gunnar Nelson vs. Dong Hyun Kim just a few weeks ago. In Sao Paulo, Brazil, Ryan Bader and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira meet in a rematch of their 2010 bout. The former is at least a fun matchup, but the latter is something of a head-scratcher.
The Belfast event isn't exactly loaded down with name value, but it should still produce a number of fun fights, especially the flyweight scrap between Kyoji Horiguchi and Ali Bagautinov. The Sao Paulo card is much deeper, with a violent bantamweight fight between Thomas Almeida and Albert Morales, a prospect battle featuring Warlley Alves and Kamaru Usman and the return of Claudia Gadelha.
In lieu of fully examining every fight from both events, I've picked five fights, including both main events, to examine in depth while giving the other fights shorter previews.
Let's dig into this weekend's smorgasbord of UFC action.
Best of the Rest: Quick Picks for UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Mousasi 2
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Welterweights
Charlie Ward (2-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-0; 0-0 UFC)
Conor McGregor teammate Ward opens the show against the American Alhassan, who has finished all six of his wins by knockout inside 90 seconds, in the event's opening bout. Ward throws a nice jab and seems to mix punches with takedowns well, but we don't have much video. Alhassan is a big-time puncher with huge power who generally throws in combination.
Prediction: If Ward can't get this to the ground, he's in big trouble. Alhassan finds the knockout in the first round.
Bantamweights
Brett Johns (12-0; 0-0 UFC) vs. Kwan Ho Kwak (9-0; 0-0 UFC)
Highly touted bantamweight prospects clash in an outstanding matchup as Wales' Johns takes on South Korea's Kwak. Johns isn't a great athlete, but he's a good combination puncher and times his takedowns beautifully before grinding away with ground strikes from top position. Kwak is an aggressive, athletic fighter with great speed and legitimate power.
Prediction: Kwak could dismantle Johns on the feet if this stays standing, but the Welshman's ability to hit takedowns as his opponents move forward should be the difference. Johns takes a decision.
Women's Bantamweights
Marion Reneau (6-3; 2-2 UFC) vs. Milana Dudieva (11-4; 1-1 UFC)
The American Reneau takes on Russia's Dudieva in a decent bantamweight scrap. Reneau is an outstanding athlete with some pop in her hands, but her skills are limited in every phase aside from pure grappling. Dudieva has a strong takedown game and a big right hand, but that's about it.
Prediction: Reneau is a much better athlete and has a much more dangerous submission game. She finds a choke in the second round.
Welterweights
Zak Cummings (19-5; 4-2 UFC) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (23-7-1; 2-3 UFC)
Welterweight gatekeepers collide as the American Cummings meets Russia's Yakovlev in a solid bout. The southpaw Cummings is an excellent counterpuncher with real power in his hands, while Yakovlev is a strong wrestler with a functional striking game.
Prediction: Cummings is a much more dangerous and crafty striker and should stuff Yakovlev's takedowns. The American wins a decision.
Heavyweights
Justin Ledet (7-0, 1 NC; 1-0 UFC) vs. Mark Godbeer (11-2; 0-0 UFC)
After a decision win in his UFC debut over Chase Sherman, Ledet looks to make it two in a row against debuting Englishman Godbeer. Ledet is a talented striker with a clean jab-cross sequence that he throws with great speed and legitimate power. Crisp striking is likewise Godbeer's calling card, plus he has a nice arsenal of punch-kick combinations and big power in his shots.
Prediction: Ledet works at a quicker pace and has a bit more depth to his boxing game. He takes a decision.
Strawweights
Anna Elmose (3-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Amanda Cooper (1-2; 0-1 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 23 runner-up Cooper takes on Denmark's Elmose in a matchup of talented young strawweights who badly need a win. Aggression is Elmose's hallmark, and she likes to sling hard punching combinations as she moves forward; decent takedowns form a nice secondary skill set. Combination punching is Cooper's wheelhouse, especially on the counter, and she seems to be quick and athletic.
Prediction: This is a close matchup. Elmose hits harder and should be the more physical fighter in the clinch and wrestling exchanges, while Cooper is faster of hand and foot and has a better grappling game. Without much confidence, the pick is Cooper by decision.
Lightweights
Kevin Lee (13-2; 6-2 UFC) vs. Magomed Mustafaev (13-1; 2-0 UFC)
Rising lightweights meet in one of the best fights on the card as the American Lee takes on Dagestan's Mustafaev. Lee is an athletic but meat-and-potatoes fighter who relies on sturdy wrestling and crisp, high-output punch-kick combinations. Mustafaev is hyper-athletic and dangerous everywhere with a vicious kicking game, strong work in the clinch and nasty submissions.
Prediction: If it goes the distance, it's Lee's fight to lose, but Mustafaev is exactly the kind of fighter who can make Lee pay for his bad defense and lack of dynamism. Mustafaev knocks him out in the first round.
Flyweights
Kyoji Horiguchi (17-2; 6-1 UFC) vs. Ali Bagautinov (14-4; 4-2 UFC)
Japan's Horiguchi and Russia's Bagautinov clash in a bout featuring two former flyweight title challengers. Horiguchi is exceptionally quick, powerful and athletic, and he prefers an in-and-out striking game that he complements with explosive takedowns. A powerful right hand and a strong wrestling game make Bagautinov dangerous in bursts, but he's limited in the depth of his technical repertoire.
Prediction: Horiguchi is quicker, more dangerous and more skilled everywhere except perhaps pure wrestling. The Japanese fighter dices up Bagautinov on the way to a dominant decision.
Middleweights
Magnus Cedenblad (14-4; 4-1 UFC) vs. Jack Marshman (20-5; 0-0 UFC)
Sweden's Cedenblad takes on Wales' Marshman in an under-the-radar but entertaining scrap at 185 pounds. Marshman isn't a great athlete, but he's tough and carries big power in his hands, which lends itself to banging it out in the pocket with counter combinations. Cedenblad is huge for the division at 6'3" and owns a crafty striking game, technical takedowns and an aggressive submission game.
Prediction: It wouldn't be surprising if Marshman landed a potent counter and put Cedenblad to sleep, but it's more likely that he gets repeatedly taken down and winds up in a choke. Cedenblad submits Marshman in the second round.
Flyweights
Ian McCall (13-5-1; 2-3-1 UFC) vs. Neil Seery (16-12; 3-3 UFC)
Seery, a beloved figure in the Irish MMA scene, will be retiring after this fight. He draws the American McCall, a former top fighter, in a solid matchup at 125 pounds.
Seery can do a bit of everything. He's a crisp, crafty boxer who works at a good pace on the feet; he wrestles competently and is a tricky grappler. McCall has strong skills everywhere, with a smooth, in-and-out striking game on the feet, excellent takedowns and defensive wrestling, and a solid grappling arsenal.
Prediction: Unless McCall is shot or makes some bad decisions, which is always a possibility, he should win this handily. McCall takes a decision.
Featherweights
Artem Lobov (12-12-1, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC) vs. Teruto Ishihara (9-2-2; 2-0-1 UFC)
Lobov, a training partner of Conor McGregor, takes on Japan's Ishihara in a fun featherweight scrap. Ishihara is an athletic, powerful striker with great counters and serious pop in his hands. Lobov is a limited fighter, as his record indicates, but he's a skilled counterpuncher and carries some power.
Prediction: Ishihara is a more skilled, more athletic and more powerful version of everything that Lobov does well. He also has the benefit of a wrestling game. The Japanese fighter knocks out the hittable Lobov in the first round.
Heavyweights
Timothy Johnson (10-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Alexander Volkov (26-6; 0-0 UFC)
North Dakota's Johnson takes on former Bellator heavyweight champion Volkov as the Russian makes his UFC debut. Johnson is a grinding wrestler with some power in his hands to go along with his takedown and clinch games. Range striking is Volkov's wheelhouse, and he puts his 6'7" frame to good use with long kicks and crisp combinations of straight punches.
Prediction: Unless Volkov has drastically improved his takedown defense, Johnson will wear him out in the clinch and from top position. The American takes a decision.
Lightweights
Ross Pearson (19-12, 1 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) vs. Stevie Ray (19-6; 3-1 UFC)
England's Pearson meets Scotland's Ray in an all-U.K. affair at 155 pounds. Pearson is a crisp, technical striker with a strong counter game and occasional takedowns. Ray is an athletic southpaw striker with excellent power in his hands, but his takedown defense failed him badly in his last outing against Alan Patrick.
Prediction: Pearson might have an edge in craft, but Ray is much faster, more athletic and more powerful. The Scotsman wins a decision.
Uriah Hall vs. Gegard Mousasi 2
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Main Event: Middleweights
Gegard Mousasi (40-6-2; 7-3 UFC) vs. Uriah Hall (12-7; 5-5 UFC)
Former top prospect Hall meets the surging Mousasi for a second time in the Belfast event's headliner.
Since Hall knocked out Mousasi with a miracle jumping spinning back kick to the face in September 2015, the two fighters have gone in opposite directions. Hall has lost two in a row to middleweight contenders, dropping a decision to Robert Whittaker and then suffering a knockout loss to Derek Brunson, while Mousasi took out Thales Leites and then finished Thiago Santos and Vitor Belfort.
This is Hall's last real chance to establish himself as a contender, but for Mousasi, it's yet one more step on the road to finally fulfilling his enormous potential after 48 fights and 13 years as a professional.
Mousasi has never looked better than in his last three fights. His skills have never really been in doubt; it's his motivation, aggression and sense of urgency that have sometimes been lacking, and he finally seems to have solved those issues.
At his best, Mousasi moves forward with subtle but grinding pressure. His jab is one of the best in MMA, and it serves to measure the distance, set a rhythm, score points and drive the opponent back toward the fence. Cracking low kicks help to cut off the opponent's escape angles and score while setting a long-enough distance that Mousasi is difficult to hit.
When the range and timing are right, Mousasi sits down on a gorgeous, potent straight right hand or a smooth left hook. He's working in combination now more than he used to, and especially when his opponent hits the fence, he's happy to unload with vicious head-body sequences.
While he doesn't work at an overwhelming pace, Mousasi is difficult to hit and even harder to hit cleanly, which prevents opponents from easily winning rounds.
As good as he is on the feet—and Mousasi's striking game has been good enough to win kickboxing matches against K-1 competitors—Mousasi is an even better grappler.
He has an active, dangerous guard that features a mixture of triangles, armbars, strikes and sweeps. On top, his control is outstanding, he passes with great skill, and he can hit a variety of submissions. His move to the back is particularly quick. When he postures up, he drops bombs.
If there's a weakness to Mousasi's game, it's his defensive wrestling. Especially when faced with a chain wrestler and backed up to the fence, Mousasi has struggled to stuff takedowns. He's better in open space, but it's still a weakness. Offensively, he has a nice array of trips, throws and shot takedowns.
Hall is a slick striker with exceptional speed and power, but he has never been able to translate his gifts into consistent success. When he's working well, Hall throws a potent jab and uses an array of kicks to score and keep his opponent at long range. He then picks his opponent off with sniper-like straight rights and highlight-reel spinning kicks.
This is a devastating arsenal, and in open space, with a willing opponent, Hall's diversity, quickness and power make him a handful. There are two serious problems with this approach, though.
First, Hall doesn't respond well to pressure. His footwork is lacking the tight, technical pivots and turns that allow him to operate in the face of an aggressive opponent without giving up too much space and ending up with his back on the fence.
Second, Hall suffers from a serious lack of urgency and killer instinct. Even when the opportunities are there, he doesn't capitalize. This leads to him giving away rounds and entire fights.
The rest of Hall's skills are competent. Though he sometimes struggles to get his back off the fence, he's a strong defensive wrestler and isn't easy to get to the mat. He can be held down, but from his back his defensive skills have allowed him to survive against even excellent grapplers. When he gets on top, Hall is a punishing ground striker with serious power in his shots.
Betting Odds
Mousasi -600 (bet $600 to win $100), Hall +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
Prediction
This is Mousasi's fight to lose. Then again, so was their first bout, and a spinning kick-flying knee combination out of nowhere still ended Mousasi's night.
Still, the first round of that meeting is more likely to be indicative of how the second one will play out than the finish. Mousasi dominated Hall on the ground, and there's no reason he can't do the same this time around. In fact, Mousasi's pressure—Hall's kryptonite—is even better than it was the first time around.
Mousasi gets in Hall's face, works takedowns and finishes with a submission in the third round.
Best of the Rest: Quick Picks for UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira 2
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Light Heavyweights
Francimar Barroso (18-5; 3-2 UFC) vs. Darren Stewart (7-0; 0-0 UFC)
The veteran Brazilian Barroso takes on debuting prospect Stewart, a native of the United Kingdom, at 205 pounds to open the show. Barroso is a grinder by nature who likes to use top position and the fence to wear his opponent down. Stewart can grind it out and is a strong, nasty clinch fighter and wrestler.
Prediction: Barroso has big advantages in experience and size (Stewart is just 5'10"), though he's giving up athleticism and power. If Stewart can avoid Barroso's takedowns, he should match the Brazilian in the clinch and beat him at range. Stewart wins a decision.
Bantamweights
Pedro Munhoz (12-2, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC) vs. Justin Scoggins (11-2; 4-2 UFC)
Brazil's Munhoz takes on American up-and-comer Scoggins in one of the evening's better fights. Scoggins fought six times at flyweight but was forced to move up to 135 pounds after a bad weight cut. He draws former blue-chip prospect Munhoz, who is trying to live up to his substantial promise. The winner will be on the cusp of the top 10.
Munhoz is nasty everywhere, with a crisp striking arsenal, strong takedowns and a nasty submission game on the mat, especially in transitions. Scoggins prefers a rangy, karate-based striking game, and surprisingly good wrestling skills complement his work on the feet.
Prediction: If it stays standing, Scoggins' volume and preference for long range present a real problem for the Brazilian, but if it goes to the ground, Munhoz can get Scoggins in serious trouble. Munhoz finds a submission in the second round.
Heavyweights
Luis Henrique (9-2; 1-1 UFC) vs. Christian Colombo (8-1-1; 0-0-1 UFC)
Denmark's Colombo drew with Jarjis Danho in his September debut and looks to get back on track against the Brazilian Henrique. Colombo is a big, strong striker with nice knees in the clinch, but he's slow and plodding. Henrique has an explosive takedown game and does damaging work from top position.
Prediction: The Brazilian takes Colombo down and works him over from the top. Henrique finishes with a submission in the first round.
Bantamweights
Johnny Eduardo (27-10; 2-2 UFC) vs. Manny Gamburyan (15-9, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC)
Brazilian veteran Eduardo, a pro since 1996, takes on Gamburyan in a fun bantamweight scrap. Eduardo is a slick, skilled striker with excellent takedown defense, while Gamburyan complements his strong takedown game with powerful hands.
Prediction: Eduardo keeps this standing and carves up Gamburyan with punches and low kicks. The Brazilian wins a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-3-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (18-4; 0-0 UFC)
Russia's Antigulov makes his debut against the Brazilian de Lima in a matchup of up-and-coming light heavyweights. De Lima is a crafty striker with big power in his punches and kicks, but his takedown defense hasn't been tested much in recent years. Antigulov is a physical fighter with a diverse takedown game, grinding skills in the clinch and serious power in his right hand, but he's not especially crafty on the feet.
Prediction: De Lima will want to keep this standing, and Antigulov will want it on the ground. Antigulov will get de Lima down and beat him up before finding a second-round submission.
Middleweights
Cezar Ferreira (10-5; 6-3 UFC) vs. Jack Hermansson (14-2; 1-0 UFC)
Ferreira, the winner of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, draws Sweden's Hermansson in a good fight at 185 pounds. The southpaw Ferreira can do a bit of everything, with a potent kicking game on the feet, strong takedowns and a suffocating top game, but he struggles to take a punch. Striking is Hermansson's wheelhouse, featuring a crisp, active jab and good combinations.
Prediction: Hermansson has the takedown defense to keep this standing and should outwork Ferreira with combinations. The Swede takes a decision.
Welterweights
Sergio Moraes (10-2-1; 4-1-1 UFC) vs. Zak Ottow (14-3; 1-0 UFC)
Ottow debuted with an upset win over Josh Burkman in October and now meets TUF: Brazil veteran and Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Moraes. Ottow is a bull of a fighter with nice forward-moving punching combinations, a stout wrestling game and a nose for finding chokes on the mat. Moraes is a world-class grappler, and he supplements those skills with a surprisingly dangerous striking game.
Prediction: If Ottow can keep this on the feet, it's his fight to lose. The American wins a decision.
Middleweights
Thales Leites (26-6; 11-5 UFC) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (18-1; 5-1 UFC)
Poland's Jotko takes on Brazilian former title contender Leites in an excellent, if under-the-radar, middleweight bout. Leites is best known for his lethal top game, but he's also a dangerous striker and a decent takedown artist in the clinch. The southpaw Jotko has become an effective striker, utilizing an arsenal of rangy kicks along with solid punching combinations backed up by outstanding takedown defense.
Prediction: If Leites can't get this to the mat, the Pole is going to outpoint him on the feet. Jotko takes a decision in a mild upset.
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Warlley Alves vs. Kamaru Usman
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Welterweights
Warlley Alves (10-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Kamaru Usman (8-1; 3-0 UFC)
Talented welterweight prospects, each a winner of a season of The Ultimate Fighter, meet in a compelling battle. Brazil's Alves won his first four UFC outings but came up short in a decision loss to Bryan Barberena last May. Usman has won all three of his fights in the UFC and most recently took a one-sided decision from Alexander Yakovlev in July.
The winner will likely receive a fight with a name fighter in his next bout and stands a good chance of making a quick run to the top in a wide-open division.
Alves is an exceptional athlete blessed with great explosiveness and power. Aggression is his hallmark, and he presses forward from the opening bell behind a vicious kicking arsenal and hard punching combinations.
Unloading strikes against the fence is one piece of Alves' pressure, but he's often happy to dive into the clinch instead, where he looks for slick trip takedowns and tries to force transitions. If his opponent slips up, Alves looks for his lethal arm-in guillotine choke and is happy to pull guard, looking for the finish.
In essence, Alves tries to overwhelm his opponent early in the fight with a stream of diverse offense. When that works, it's impressive; when it doesn't, Alves tends to drain his gas tank quickly and leaves himself vulnerable in the second and third rounds.
Skill-wise, Alves is fine. He's a strong defensive wrestler and has elite offensive skills in every phase, and while he's not a defensive mastermind, he's good enough. The real problem is his inability to modulate his pace and maintain his volume and pop late into the fight.
Usman too is an outstanding athlete with great quickness and strength. He's crisp and fundamentally sound as a striker, though he's a bit rote with his choice of punch-kick combinations. For the most part, however, he's more interested in punching his way forward into the clinch or takedown attempts than he is in striking at range.
The former wrestler is a suffocating blanket when he can get his hands on his opponent. He's especially adept against the fence, mixing head pressure and underhooks with trips and chains of leg attacks. Transitional positions like the ride are a specialty, and he doesn't need to get his opponent all the way to the mat to find openings to land sequences of hard punches.
When he can establish top position, Usman is no less controlling. He likes half guard and is difficult to shake off, and while he's mostly a ground striker, he'll look for the occasional topside submission for good measure.
Betting Odds
Usman -220, Alves +180
Prediction
If Usman can weather the early storm, he should win this handily. His grinding style of clinch fighting and wrestling against the fence is tailor-made to wear down a fighter like Alves, who tends to empty his gas tank in a series of short bursts. After a scary couple of minutes, Usman will grab ahold of Alves and control his way to a decision win.
Claudia Gadelha vs. Cortney Casey
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Strawweights
Claudia Gadelha (13-2; 2-2 UFC) vs. Cortney Casey (6-3; 2-2 UFC)
Former title contender Gadelha looks to get back on track against the surging Casey. Gadelha fell short in a competitive fight with dominant champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her last outing; it was her second loss to the Polish dynamo. The Brazilian has won every other fight in her career, however, and is the consensus second-best strawweight on the planet. Casey has won two in a row since dropping her first two fights in the UFC.
There's nothing Gadelha can't do well in the cage. She's a crisp, technical striker who puts together clean combinations of punches and kicks at distance, packing legitimate power in her shots and showcasing sharp triggers on her counters. Her jab is one of the best in the division, and she works at a quick, punishing pace on the feet.
The real heart of Gadelha's game lies in her arsenal of takedowns. She's a strong, controlling clinch fighter, especially against the fence, where she pins her opponent in place with strong head pressure and underhooks before looking for trips or chains of singles and doubles. In terms of technical skill, she's one of the best wrestlers in the division.
On top, Gadelha's skills are elite. She controls well, uses a variety of smooth passes and packs some pop in her ground strikes. When she establishes dominant position, she's happy to look for topside submissions, particularly the armbar.
Casey is big for the division at 5'7" and physically gifted, and she has made real strides in improving her skills since debuting in the UFC in July 2015. She has an increasingly sound striking arsenal on the feet, working behind a crisp jab and sharp low kicks before committing to hard punching combinations in the pocket.
Her strength is obvious whenever she ties up with her opponent, and it combines with growing technical acumen in the clinch. Casey throws hard knees and has a knack for sneaking in elbows on the break while making effective use of the double-collar tie.
On the mat, Casey is aggressive. She throws bombing strikes from top position and excels at getting to the back, where she has a clean rear-naked choke. Transitions and scrambles are the best part of her grappling game. If anything, though, she's a bit too aggressive from her back and is too willing to attack instead of trying to get back to her feet.
Wrestling is the weakest part of Casey's game. She has some slick trips in the clinch but isn't a strong defender of takedowns.
Betting Odds
Gadelha -450, Casey +360
Prediction
While Gadelha is deservedly the overwhelming favorite here, Casey can make this a tough fight by using her length on the feet and leveraging her size in the clinch. With that said, Gadelha has a huge advantage in takedowns and her top game, and that should power the Brazilian to a decision win.
Thomas Almeida vs. Albert Morales
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Bantamweights
Thomas Almeida (20-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Albert Morales (6-0-1; 0-0-1 UFC)
Blue-chip prospect Almeida tries to rebound from the first loss of his career against fellow up-and-comer Morales. After winning the first 20 fights of his career, 19 by stoppage, Almeida fell to top contender Cody Garbrandt by knockout in the first round in May. While his talent isn't in doubt, we'll see how he responds to such a devastating loss. Morales looked good in a draw with Alejandro Perez in his debut in September.
Almeida will be right back on track with a win here, while Morales would vault from obscurity to the fringes of the top 10.
Despite his long run of stoppage victories, Almeida isn't a huge puncher. He's a clean, technical and aggressive striker who laces his opponent with such a tremendous volume of offense that his competition eventually reaches his mental and physical breaking point.
Pressure is the core of Almeida's approach. He takes the first few minutes to gauge his opponent's timing and range, and as he gathers information, he's quite hittable. This is what cost him against Garbrandt, for example, but it's been a problem in other fights as well.
Once Almeida gets rolling, however, he's hard to stop. He works his way into range behind his jab and sharp low kicks and then swarms with head-body combinations, jumping knees and slashing elbows. He delivers such a bewildering variety of offense at such a quick pace that the opponent struggles to keep up. Counters are a specialty; when his opponent throws to back him off, Almeida responds with even more volume.
That's the heart of Almeida's game. He has excellent takedown defense and knows how to sweep and get back to his feet if planted on the mat. He also appears to be competent on the rare occasion he finds himself on top.
Morales is huge for the division at 5'9" and complements his sheer size with quickness and big power. While his skills are raw, as one would expect from a fighter with just seven bouts under his belt, his physical gifts combine with a few well-executed techniques to make him quite dangerous.
At his heart, Morales is an aggressive puncher. He likes to pressure his opponent toward the fence, tossing out the occasional jab or front kick and a steady diet of low kicks before sliding into the pocket with a potent straight right hand. The occasional double-leg takedown adds some variety, and he carries his power into his ground strikes. He seems to be a competent defensive wrestler, but there isn't much to go on.
Betting Odds
Almeida -320, Morales +260
Prediction
On paper, Morales presents many of the same challenges as Garbrandt: athleticism, power, aggression and the ability to start quickly. With that in mind, it's reasonable to think that Morales might buzz Almeida with a big shot or two early.
On the other hand, Garbrandt has a great deal more craft to his game than Morales, who doesn't have the chops to exchange without brawling in the way Garbrandt managed to repeatedly catch Almeida. The Brazilian will eat a couple of shots early, but he'll walk Morales down and put volume on him before finishing with a flurry in the third round.
Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 2
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Main Event: Light Heavyweights
Ryan Bader (21-5; 14-5 UFC) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-7; 5-4 UFC)
It's not clear why a rematch between Nogueira and Bader makes much sense six years after their lackluster first meeting, especially as a five-round main event, but here we are.
Bader saw an impressive five-fight winning streak snap in the face of Anthony Johnson's thunderous fists last January, but he rebounded with a highlight-reel knockout of Ilir Latifi in September. Now on the last fight of his contract, he's looking for another big win as he heads on to the market.
Nogueira had lost two in a row to Johnson and Shogun Rua, but a knockout win over Patrick Cummins got him back on track. He's still hanging around the fringes of the light heavyweight elite, but that's mostly because of the lack of new blood in the division in recent years.
While he's now 40 years old, Nogueira's skills are still crisp and fundamentally sound in every phase. The southpaw works behind a probing jab, but the real foundation of his game is a razor-sharp straight left hand that he fires early and often as a lead, a counter and on clinch breaks. While not an especially powerful puncher, he's accurate and has the kind of timing you'd expect from an experienced striker.
Striking is Nogueira's wheelhouse, but over the years he's become a surprisingly nasty clinch fighter as well. He knows all the little tricks for applying pressure and creating space to land knees and short punches, and he has a gift for sneaking in hard shots while entering or exiting.
Although he's not a bulletproof defensive wrestler, Nogueira is not easy to get to the mat, and if planted on his back, he makes good use of the deep half guard for sweeps. His front headlock is also excellent. If he can get on top, Nogueira's control is excellent, and he has a deep command of passes.
Bader has evolved over the years from a one-dimensional wrestler with power in his hands into a fully fledged mixed martial artist. He's fairly meat-and-potatoes with his arsenal, but he's an excellent fighter in every phase with no real weaknesses.
It sounds a bit strange to say, but he has one of the best jabs in the division; it's a varied tool for setting his rhythm and distance that scores points and does actual damage. He's less dependent on the right hand than he used to be, but he can still sit down on a vicious shot when the mood strikes. A potent round kick, particularly on the left side, adds some variety.
As good as he's become on the feet, wrestling is still the cornerstone of Bader's game. He does an excellent job of covering his level changes with strikes, puts together technical chains, and finishes with explosive, driving authority. It's difficult to get Bader to the mat in return.
Bader isn't a serious threat to finish the fight on the mat, but he's a smothering control artist. He tends to let his opponent move quite a bit under him, transitioning between wrestling control positions like the ride and more traditional top control, but all the while he wears his opponent down and lands short punches.
Betting Odds
Bader -350, Nogueira +290
Prediction
This is Bader's fight to lose. In their first matchup, it was clear that Nogueira was still the deeper and more technical striker, but that may not be the case anymore. Bader has always held the wrestling advantage, and that's no less true now than it was in 2010.
It probably won't be exciting, but Bader will mix in volume striking with takedowns to grind out round after round. There's a chance he'll land the knockout shot, but that's less likely than Bader winning a dominant 50-45 decision.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark; current as of Wednesday.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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