Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Houston holds the upper hand in the rivalry with Jacksonville, winning nine of the last 11 meetings straight up, including the last four in a row, and going 6-4-1 against the spread. The AFC South-leading Texans shoot to make it five straight over the Jaguars on Sunday in Jacksonville.

Point spread: The Jaguars opened as one-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.5-16.8 Jaguars (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans bounced back from that dismal defeat to the Denver Broncos three weeks ago to down the Detroit Lions two weeks ago 20-13. They then had last week off.

Houston grabbed a 14-0 lead on the Lions and never trailed after that. On the day, the Texans outrushed the Lions 105-58, grinding out much of that yardage while working the clock in the fourth quarter. They also won time of possession by a 34-26 margin on their way to covering as one-point favorites.

Last year, Houston swept two games from the Jaguars by a combined score of 61-26, winning the ground battle by a combined margin of 255-115.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville just lost at Kansas City last week 19-14, but it garnered a back-door cover as a seven-point road dog. The Jags fell down to the Chiefs 10-0 in the second quarter, pulled to within five points with four minutes to go but had their final drive end on downs at the KC 32-yard line.

On the day, the Jaguars outgained Kansas City 449-231 and outrushed the Chiefs 205-62. Running back Chris Ivory finally came up with his first 100-yard effort for his new team. But he also lost a fumble at the Kansas City goal line, and three other Jacksonville turnovers led directly to 13 Chiefs points.

On the season, the Jags are plus-nine in per-game total yardage, a stat more indicative of a 4-4 or 5-3 team rather than one that's 2-6.

Smart pick

Jacksonville is one of the bigger disappointments in the league so far this season, because playing with heightened expectations can be tough for young teams. But now, with that bubble popped, perhaps the Jags can put together a good second half.

Houston, meanwhile, may be 5-3 overall, but it's also 0-3 both SU and ATS on the road, losing three road bouts by an average score of 28-7. The smart money likes the Jaguars in this spot.

Betting trends

The Texans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last six games against teams with winning records.

The Texans are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games against their division.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.