Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Green Bay's home-field advantage at Lambeau Field is well-known, but the Packers have actually been a better bet on the road of late, going 7-2 against the spread over their last nine road trips. The Pack takes its show on the road this week, taking on the Titans in Nashville on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Packers opened as one-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.9-19.9 Titans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay lugs a two-game losing streak into Tennessee, but those two losses come by a total of six points. Two weeks ago, the Packers lost at Atlanta, 33-32, on a Falcons touchdown with 30 seconds to go, and last week they fell to Indianapolis, 31-26.

The Pack gave up a 99-yard return for a touchdown on the opening kickoff last week and never fully recovered. They later trailed, 31-13, and rallied to within 31-26 with three minutes to play, but an injury-depleted defense couldn't get the ball back. On the day, Green Bay actually outgained the Colts, 405-355, but missed a field goal, threw an interception just outside the Indy red zone and failed on a two-point conversion.

At 4-4 overall, the Packers are obviously struggling, and they're trailing the rival Minnesota Vikings with just a 26.9 percent chance of winning the NFC North, according to PredictionMachine. But sometimes the best thing for a struggling team is to go on the road, get away from the distractions and rally around the "us versus the world" theory.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee had won three of four games to reach .500 on the season, but lost a wild one last week at San Diego, 43-35. The Titans fell down 16-0 to the Chargers early in the second quarter, rallied to take a 21-19 lead early in the third but gave up a pair of San Diego defensive scores in the fourth, which proved impossible to overcome.

Tennessee piled up 413 yards of offense, as quarterback Marcus Mariota hit the 300-yard mark passing for the first time this season, threw three touchdown passes and ran for another. Unfortunately, he also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and tossed a pick-six.

In all, three Titans turnovers led directly to 17 Chargers points. Still, at 4-5, Tennessee is only a game-and-a-half behind first-place Houston in the AFC South.

Smart pick

Tennessee has outgained five of nine opponents this season; Green Bay has only outgained three of eight foes. Also, the Titans' third-ranked running game gets to go against a banged-up Packers defense. The smart money here takes Tennessee.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in four of the Packers' last five games against the Titans.

The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.

The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in Week 10.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.