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Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 9, 2016

Baylor quarterback Seth Russell (17) passes in the first half of an NCAA college football game against TCU on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016, in Waco, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Oklahoma owns the all-time rivalry with Baylor by a large margin, but the Bears are working on whittling that difference down, winning three of the last five meetings straight up and going 4-1 against the spread. Coming off a demoralizing defeat last week, Baylor shoots for an upset of the Sooners in a Big 12 bout Saturday afternoon in Norman. 

Point spread: The Sooners opened as 15.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.4-38.0 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

   

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

The Bears were 6-0 and 3-0 in Big 12 play, but they have lost their last two games, including a 62-22 blowout at home against TCU last week. Baylor took a 7-0 lead 22 seconds into the game on a long Seth Russell touchdown hookup with Ishmael Zamora, but as often happens with home teams that score right away, it seemed to ease up from there. The Bears then proceeded to give up the game's next 31 points and faded even further in the second half.

The Horned Frogs outgained and outrushed Baylor, but that's the first time that's happened to the Bears this season. Two weeks ago, BU outgained and outrushed Texas but lost 35-34 on a field goal with less than a minute to go.

   

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

OU remained unbeaten in Big 12 play last week, holding off Iowa State in Ames 34-24. The Sooners snatched an early 14-3 lead, fell down to the Cyclones 17-14 late in the second quarter, but scored the next 17 points to take the lead for good and held on from there.

On the night, Oklahoma outgained Iowa State 477-290, made 28 first downs to the Cyclones' 15 and won time of possession by a 37-23 margin. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw four touchdown passes against one interception, and he now owns a 19-2 touchdown-interception ratio over the last four games. Meanwhile, wide receiver Dede Westbrook caught seven balls for 131 yards and a touchdown to give him six straight 100-yard receiving efforts. He's also scored 13 touchdowns—12 receiving, one on a punt return—over the last six games.

At 6-0 in conference play, the Sooners lead the Big 12 by a game over second-place Oklahoma State, and they get the Cowboys at Memorial Stadium in the season finale.

    

Smart pick

Baylor is coming off a miserable performance last week, while Oklahoma still thinks it's got a shot at the College Football Playoff. But these teams are closer in talent and ability than this spread seems to indicate. The Sooners may still win, but the smart money on the Vegas odds bets the Bears, plus the points.

   

Betting trends

Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games on the road against Oklahoma.

Oklahoma is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.

The total has gone under in six of Baylor's last eight games.

   

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.

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