
What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 10?
The 2016 fantasy football season is creeping ever closer to playoff time. We've gone through nine weeks already, and those weeks have all been filled with excitement, intrigue and unexpected surprises.
Things have been so wild this season that depending on even the top fantasy stars has felt like a crapshoot. Ben Roethlisberger returned to action in Week 9, for example, but he didn't play like a fantasy stud is expected to play—he produced 264 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Injuries, unexpected events and tough matchups have led to a number of disappointing fantasy outings this season. Julio Jones has three games with fewer than 40 receiving yards. 2015 fantasy phenom Todd Gurley hasn't reached 90 rushing yards in a game yet this season.
It's hard to figure out who exactly we can trust, which is a problem with the fantasy playoffs right around the corner. Fortunately, we're here to help by trying to figure out which fantasy studs are trustworthy in Week 10.
For this list, we'll examine players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at difficult situations and challenging matchups and providing a comfort level for each player on our list.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans
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Former league rushing leader DeMarco Murray has definitely been a stud for the Tennessee Titans this season. He's also been a stud for fantasy owners.
Through nine games, Murray has racked up 807 yards rushing, 226 yards receiving and nine total touchdowns. He is ranked third in RB fantasy scoring on NFL.com.
This week presents a tough challenge for Murray, though. The Titans host the Green Bay Packers, who are rated fourth in run defense by Pro Football Focus and are allowing an NFL-low 75.8 yards rushing per game.
While the Packers have been solid at shutting down opposing ball-carriers, we don't see them completely stopping Murray. He holds points-per-reception value—35 receptions so far this year—and it appears he'll be handling the entire backfield load.
Backup running back and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry recently suffered a calf injury that could sideline him for some time.
"He had an MRI, and it showed a strain of the calf," Titans head coach Mike Mularkey said, per Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website. "That is kind of an injury where a lot of it is pain tolerance. It could be a day, it could be up to a couple of weeks. We'll monitor that as we go."
Volume is key when it comes to fantasy, and Murray should have plenty of it in Week 10. This, plus his ability to function as a pass-catcher, gives us some confidence in him for the coming week.
Comfort Level: New Pillow
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback returned from a tron meniscus to face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9, but unfortunatly didn't return to full stud status.
Playing at less than 100 percent health, Roethlisberger completed just 51.1 percent of his passed for 264 yards with a touchdown, an interception and two fumbles (zero lost).
Roethlisberger's health and his matchup with the Dallas Cowboys make us a bit skeptical about his Week 10 potential. The Cowboys are allowing just 264.0 yards passing per game and are rated first in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
It would make more sense for the Steelers to attack the Cowboys defense on the ground with a healthy Le'Veon Bell. If the Steelers do decide to go with a run-oriented approach, Roethlisberger's value is likely to dip.
Even if the Steelers are forced to attack through the air, this isn't an ideal matchup. Expect Roethlisberger to produce numbers similar to those he produced last week. These are adequate numbers for some quarterbacks, but a disappointinment for a stud like Big Ben.
Comfort Level: Overnight on an Inflatable Matress
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
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A strong Dallas Cowboys pass defense also makes for a stiff challenge for Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. In addition to the defense in front of him, Brown will have to operate with a sub-100 percent Roethlisberger and without another top pass-catcher on the field with him.
Finding other go-to targets is a priority for Pittsburgh, according to head coach Mike Tomlin.
"It's important we get consistent contributions from guys not named Antonio Brown," Tomlin said, per ESPN.com's Aditi Kinkhabwala.
Dallas should be able to put the majority of its defensive efforts toward stopping Brown.
Of course, Brown's situation also means that he is the only go-to target for Roethlisberger, and this should lead to a heavy volume of targets. Brown finished last week's game with seven receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown.
We'd expect similar numbers from Brown in Week 10. Since he doesn't quite carry the same turnover risk as Roethlisberger, we feel even better about his prospects.
Comfort Level: Overnight on a Pull-Out Couch
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
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Running back Todd Gurley was a true fantasy stud as a rookie in 2015. He racked up 1,106 yards rushing, 188 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in just 13 games last season.
While Gurley is still the biggest offensive weapon for the Los Angeles Rams, he hasn't been the fantasy favorite that he was a year ago. Gurley has only found the end zone three times so far this year, and he's averaging a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry.
Much of his struggles are likely due to the fact that Gurley is the only top-tier weapon on the Rams offense. Teams have been able to focus solely on stopping him while daring journeyman quarterback Case Keenum to beat them through the air.
This is likely the same strategy the New York Jets will employ this week, and that isn't great news for Gurley owners. The Jets are rated sixth in run defense by Pro Football Focus and are allowing just 81 yards rushing per game.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has made it clear that he wants to start leaning on Gurley more.
"Todd's not getting enough carries," Fisher said of L.A.'s last two losses, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com. "Our passing numbers were skewed."
The problem is that New York has a secondary rated just 29th in coverage by Pro Football Focus.
This isn't the week for the Rams to eschew the pass, and this isn't the week for Gurley to finally break out.
Comfort Level: Overnight in a Hotel Bathtub
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
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Part of the reason the 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs are racking up wins and staying in the AFC West race is a defense that forces turnovers and keeps points off the scoreboard.
Kansas City has forced five fumbles and has already snagged a whopping 12 interceptions. The Chiefs' pass-coverage unit—which is rated seventh overall by Pro Football Focus—is making life miserable on opposing quarterbacks.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton will try his hand against the Chiefs defense this week.
Newton has been a regular fantasy producer because of his ability to perform as a passer and as a runner. Last season, he passed for more than 3,800 yards, rushed for more than 600 yards and scored 45 total touchdowns.
Newton hasn't been quite as effective this season. In fact, he has scored just 12 touchdowns while committing seven turnovers through seven games.
We're not so sure Newton finds a way to turn things around this week. If he produces, he's going to have to do it on the ground and in the end zone. A performance similar to the one he had last week against the Rams (225 yards, one touchdown, 16 rushing yards) would leave fantasy owners wanting.
Comfort Level: Thrift Store Socks
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins
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Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins might not be a traditional fantasy star, but he's been a viable starting option this season. He's already passed for 2,454 yards and is ranked 14th in QB fantasy scoring by NFL.com.
The issue for Cousins is that he has had difficulty finding the end zone. He has thrown just 12 touchdowns and rushed for one with eight turnovers in eight games.
Cousins also faces a physical Minnesota Vikings defense this week. The Vikings are rated 11th in overall defense and 11th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
Unless Minnesota's defense rebounds, though, we're pretty sure that Cousins can have a solid outing. The trick for fantasy will be getting into the end zone and avoiding turnovers.
Last week, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 219 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. This is probably about what we can expect from Cousins, which equates to a subpar fantasy day.
If Cousins can take care of the football and get it into the end zone a couple of times, owners will be OK. However, this is a big risk against a solid defense.
Comfort Level: Week-Old Chip Dip
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green is a fantasy stud in the truest sense of the term. He is the focal point of the Bengals offense, and he has already racked up 59 receptions, 896 yards and three touchdowns.
The challenge facing Green this week is an underrated New York Giants defense in prime time. That defense is rated 10th in overall defense and second in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
We expect Green to see a large number of targets from Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. The problem is that Dalton isn't exactly known as a prime-time star. Seeing as how this game comes on Monday night and on the road, we're not so sure targets will equal production.
The key for Green may reside in his ability to find the end zone. He should have good PPR value, but he may not rack up the points if he cannot score. Unfortunately, the Bengals have struggled to find the end zone this season, and Green has just those three receiving scores so far.
Realistically, Green is probably headed toward a solid, not stud-worthy performance.
Comfort Level: Dress Slacks
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been a revelation in his four appearances since returning from suspension. He has already passed for 1,319 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
This week, though, the big, bad Seattle Seahawks defense comes to Foxborough. Can Brady really keep up his passing excellence against it?
There are reasons to be skeptical. Seattle is rated ninth in pass coverage and fifth in overall defense by Pro Football Focus. The Seahawks defense is allowing just 233.9 yards passing and 16.8 points per game on average.
However, we're not going to suggest benching Brady—not by a long shot. Brady will benefit from playing at home, and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has had the entire bye week to install a game plan with which to attack Seattle.
Besides, we've seen some quarterbacks find success against that Seahawks secondary this year. Most recently, Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor produced 289 yards passing with a touchdown, an interception and a rushing touchdown.
Realistically, we'd expect similar numbers from Brady this week, with the possibility of an extra score on the stat sheet.
However, the potential for turnovers and a run-oriented game plan suggest you might want to temper overall expectations.
Comfort Level: Overnight on an Air Mattress
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