What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 9?
We've reached the halfway point in the 2016 NFL and fantasy-football seasons. Eight weeks have passed, and eight weeks will remain once Week 9 is complete.
For you fantasy-football enthusiasts out there, this means that the home stretch of the fantasy season is looming. Most leagues typically start the playoffs in Week 13 or 14, so you have about a month to either make your push or hang onto your spot.
If this idea doesn't conjure up a little pressure, consider the fact that it's also bye-week season. The Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans are off this week.
This might mean only some of your fantasy studs are available in Week 9—and some of those are undoubtedly facing tough matchups or situations.
How comfortable should you be about your fantasy studs heading into Week 9? That's what we're going to determine here.
For this list, we'll examine players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at difficult situations and challenging matchups as we provide a comfort level for each player on our list.
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
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Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has emerged as a legitimate fantasy star this season. He's already racked up 2,231 yards and 17 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Last week alone, he passed for 513 yards and four scores with no picks.
Last week, though, Carr faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 23rd-ranked pass defense (274.7 yards per game allowed). This week's opponent, the Denver Broncos, represent an entirely different animal.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Broncos first in pass coverage, fifth in pass rush and first in overall defense. The team is allowing just 17.0 points per game (fifth in the NFL) and is routinely making quality quarterbacks look pedestrian.
Last week, for example, San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers passed for 267 yards and two touchdowns but with three interceptions and four sacks.
This is why is it's tough to predict anything more than an average day for Carr. Yes, the young gunslinger is talented, but he is also inexperienced compared to Rivers.
"He’s gifted enough to one day become a top-tier QB, but he’s not there yet," Andy Benoit of theMMQB.com recently wrote of Carr. "He must sharpen his play."
Denver possesses the kind of defense that could force Carr into mistakes—and a disappointing fantasy outing.
Comfort Level: Two-State Drive with a Broken Fuel Gauge
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2 of 9
The fantasy rule regarding Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is that if he's playing, you start him. Sure he has the occasional disappointing game—just 257 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in Week 3, for example—but his upside is too great to ignore.
This is just how things are when you're talking about a perennial Pro Bowler with weapons such as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown at his disposal.
The question heading into Week 9, then, is whether or not Roethlisberger is going to play. Big Ben suffered a torn meniscus in Week 6 during a loss to the Miami Dolphins. He underwent surgery and has spent the past couple of weeks recuperating.
As things stand, though, it seems as Roethlisberger has a chance to return this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Roethlisberger has returned to practice and is preparing for the upcoming game. According to Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has said that Roethlisberger could play this week.
We'd guess that there's about a 50-50 chance that Roethlisberger will suit up, and a lot will depend on how his knee responds to practices this week. We'd recommend grabbing or holding onto a replacement option, but we feel better about the prospect of starting Roethlisberger than we would have a week ago.
Comfort Level: Blind Date that Your Mother Set Up
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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The risks with playing Bell are twofold. For one, we don't yet know whether Roethlisberger is going to play. For two, Bell will be going up against a Ravens defense that Pro Football Focus rates first overall against the run.
On average, Baltimore is surrendering just 81.9 yards rushing per game.
Well, given Bell's role in the Steelers offense, we're pretty comfortable starting him anyway. Bell is an outstanding pass-catcher, which gives him value even against stout run defenses.
Two weeks ago against the New England Patriots, for example, Bell produced 81 yards rushing, 10 receptions and 68 yards receiving. Pro Football Focus rates the Patriots are rated third overall, and the Steelers played without Roethlisberger in that game.
You can probably expect similar numbers from Bell this week, even if Landry Jones makes his second consecutive start. If Roethlisberger plays, Bell could be in store for an even bigger afternoon.
Start Bell, and don't think twice about it.
Comfort Level: Riding Shotgun in a Luxury SUV
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Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is a top-flight quarterback and a regular fantasy star. So far this season, he has 2,284 yards with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. However, Luck doesn't have the best supporting cast and is prone to the occasional fantasy disappointment.
The Kansas City Chiefs sacked Luck sacked six times last week. He committed two turnovers and managed just 210 yards passing with two touchdowns. He did rush for 60 yards, however.
Can Luck have a better game this week against the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau? Well, there are reasons to be concerned. The Packers allow an average of just 247.1 yards per game passing, and Pro Football Focus rates then third overall in pass rush. Those Chiefs, who got six sacks and forced two turnovers, are No. 21 in pass rush.
It doesn't help that Luck has a line that has allowed 31 sacks already this season.
However, there are a couple of reasons to believe Luck can still have a decent fantasy outing. The Colts probably aren't going to waste much time testing Green Bay's second-ranked run defense (74.4 yards allowed per game). If Luck can get the ball out quickly enough, he can likely take advantage of the Packers' 29th-ranked secondary, per Pro Football Focus.
Last week, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan sliced through that secondary for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Expect similar number for Luck, with a turnover or two bundled in.
Comfort Level: Riding Shotgun in an Early '90s Pickup
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
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Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has long been a fantasy favorite because of his ability to produce through the air and on the ground. Even in a subpar week, he usually at least avoids embarrassing numbers.
Last week against a tough Arizona Cardinals defense, for example, Newton passed for 212 yards and rushed for 43 more. Of course, since Newton didn't find the end zone, his outing was a bit of a disappointment.
Will Newton disappoint again this week against the Los Angeles Rams? Even though the Rams possess the No. 4 overall defense, per Pro Football Focus, we believe Newton can have a bounce-back week.
Newton will probably have to shoulder the majority of the offensive load in this game because the strength of the L.A. defense is its line. His mobility can counter the pass rush, and his strong arm can attack the secondary, which allows an average of 239.0 yards passing per game.
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford exploited the Rams defense for 270 yards passing and four touchdowns a few weeks ago. In the Rams' last game, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning passed for only 196 yards and no touchdowns. But he avoided both turnovers and sacks.
Newton should fall somewhere between these two performances. Expect around 250 yards passing, 40 yards rushing and a couple scores. These numbers won't make fantasy owners drool, but they're better than what we saw last week.
Comfort Level: Sitting on a Park Bench
Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions
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Theo Riddick is the Detroit Lions running back to own in fantasy this season. Not only has he emerged as one of the league's best receiving backs, but he is running the ball better than many expected.
Despite only playing six games, Riddick already has 227 yards rushing, 267 yards receiving, 34 catches and five touchdowns. NFL.com ranks him 20th in RB fantasy scoring.
Riddick missed two weeks with an ankle injury but returned in Week 8 to face the Houston Texans. He rushed for 5.1 yards per carry in that game and caught eight passed for 77 yards and a touchdown. The question now is whether Riddick can put up similar numbers this week against the Minnesota Vikings.
Yes, Riddick can. While the Vikings defense has been dominant at times, Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard exposed it last week. He rushed for 153 yards and caught four passes for 49 more.
Minnesota is still ranked eighth in rushing yards allowed (92.6 per game), but the Bears proved last week that teams can run against this defense. Riddick should lead the charge if the Lions choose to follow Chicago's blueprint.
In addition, Riddick is such a big part of the team's passing game that he is a virtual must-start in PPR formats.
Comfort Level: Hot Tub and Cold Drinks
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi has made himself a fantasy stud after producing back-to-back 200-yard games. Despite appearing in just six games with three starts, he now has 535 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
NFL.com ranks him 17th in RB scoring.
Ajayi faces a tough challenge this week, though, in the form of the AFC East rival New York Jets. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards this season (74.0 per game), and there is a good chance the Dolphins choose to attack New York primarily though the air.
The Jets are sixth in run defense but just 28th in pass coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
Ajayi's outlook would be better if he were more of a receiving threat, but he isn't. He actually has eight receptions this year and two in his past three games.
The Jets are probably going to focus on shutting down Ajayi, so he could find it difficult to roam free as he has in recent weeks. He can probably still have a decent outing, given the volume of touches he is likely to receiver. But this could be a down week for Ajayi.
We're not suggesting to sit him, and it could turn into a good day if the Dolphins decide to use him as a receiver to get him the ball in space. However, we're not sure that it's wise to expect another massive fantasy day from the Boise State product.
Comfort Level: Worn Bar Stool
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Allen Robinson was a fantasy mega-star in 2015. He racked up a whopping 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns on 80 receptions last year. You can bet he was a hot commodity in fantasy drafts this year.
Unfortunately, Robinson has been more of a disappointment than anything in 2016. Through seven games, he has 32 catches, which means he isn't too far off his 2015 receptions pace. However, he has produced just 366 yards and three touchdowns with those catches, which isn't good.
The problem isn't necessarily poor play from Robinson. The issue is that Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles seems to have regressed in a big way. Pro Football Focus ranks Bortles, who has a passer rating of 80.3, 48th out of 53 quarterbacks.
In case you've been holding onto Robinson and waiting for Bortles to return to form, it probably isn't happening this week. The Jaguars travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, whom Pro Football Focus rates eighth in pass coverage.
This is a defense that sacked Luck six times last week while holding him to 210 yards with two touchdowns and two turnovers. If the Chiefs can handle the Colts QB that well, they can handle Bortles.
Robinson caught six passes for 70 yards last week against the Tennessee Titans. He'll be lucky to get that this week.
Comfort Level: Canned Chicken with a Missing Expiration Date
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
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Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy is a veritable fantasy star when healthy. In seven games this season, he has 598 yards rushing, 20 receptions and seven total touchdowns. The problem with McCoy is that he hasn't been healthy recently.
McCoy aggravated a hamstring injury two weeks ago during a loss to the Miami Dolphins and was inactive last week against the New England Patriots. There's a chance that he'll return this week to face the Seattle Seahawks, but there is no guarantee.
"He's progressing," Bills head coach Rex Ryan said of McCoy, per the team's Twitter account. "Hopefully we'll have him practicing on Thursday."
Even if McCoy does play, we're not sold on starting him. He isn't facing the best matchup—the Seahawks are third in run defense, per Pro Football Focus—and the Bills have other options at running back.
Backup Mike Gillislee rushed for 85 yards and touchdown last week against the Patriots. He also caught three passes and averaged 7.1 yards per carry. Unless the Bills are certain McCoy is 100 percent healthy, Gillislee should be the lead back.
The last thing Buffalo needs is another McCoy injury.
Even if McCoy is healthy, he'll probably share the load with Gillislee against a tough defense on the road. We'd recommend waiting until after the team's Week 10 bye to start him.
Comfort Level: Truth or Dare with the In-Laws
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