Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Tony Ferguson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The November UFC schedule is focused around a lightweight battle happening at UFC 205 on November 12 between Conor McGregor and Eddie Alvarez, but on November 5 there is another one you don't want to miss.
No. 2-ranked contender, and former champion, Rafael Dos Anjos meets No. 3-ranked Tony Ferguson at UFC Fight Night 98 in Mexico City.
The main event will be Dos Anjos' first trip back inside the Octagon since losing the belt to Alvarez in the summer. Ferguson hopes to extend his winning streak to nine and claim a title shot. The scheduled five-round battle will put the winner in the driver's seat for an early-2017 tilt with the winner of the McGregor-Alvarez fight.
That begs the question: Who walks out of Mexico City in the lightweight division's driver seat?
Striking
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Much like the fight itself, we will start on the feet. And just like every other category we will touch upon, it is an interesting clash of styles.
Ferguson has greatly improved his stand-up over the years, and he can look simply sensational at times. His coaches have done a tremendous job. Likewise, Dos Anjos improved his hands as well. The former champion is more tactical and fundamental than Ferguson.
Ferguson's biggest issue standing is a penchant for getting into slugfests. He enjoys them, but it's a dangerous game to play. It's one that almost caught him when he welcomed Lando Vannata to the UFC on short notice. Vannata clocked Ferguson a lot in that fight.
Ultimately, the scale still tips in Ferguson's favor.
He is more dynamic, faster and has greater output. Per FightMetric, Ferguson lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute compared to Dos Anjos' 3.07.
Ferguson needs to stay within himself in this fight and not get drawn into a wild exchange where a more compact Dos Anjos can do damage.
Edge: Ferguson
Grappling
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This may surprise a few folks, but I am not siding with the classic amateur wrestler in this case.
Ferguson has a solid wrestling background from being a state high school champion to having a successful collegiate career. So why doesn't he get the nod?
In MMA, Ferguson has gotten away from his roots, while Dos Anjos embraces grappling exchanges.
Ferguson attempts fewer than one takedown a fight with only a 50 percent success rate and 78 percent defense, per FightMetric. While the latter number is even lower for Dos Anjos (66 percent), his style is predicated off his grappling, which led him to the title in the first place.
And it's not just being successful with single-leg takedowns or double-legs. It's holding positions on the mat and against the cage in the clinch. Dos Anjos' strength in that field gives him an advantage when they lock up. He can turn this into a slog of a fight by stifling the offense of Ferguson.
Edge: Dos Anjos
Submissions
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Dos Anjos is an accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he hasn't been too successful finishing with submissions inside the UFC.
He holds just two submission wins in his UFC tenure, and both come against mid-level competition (Kamal Shalorus and Terry Etim). Meanwhile, Ferguson has five submissions during his current eight-fight win streak.
That's really the tale of this category.
Ferguson has an excellent D'arce choke with his long arms, and his work on the mat is exceptional. If Dos Anjos puts him on the canvas, it will be difficult to find offense, and he will always be in danger of Ferguson's active ground game.
More submissions, against higher-level competition, make this an easy one to give to Ferguson.
Edge: Ferguson
X-Factors
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Dos Anjos' X-Factor: His Mental State
Saturday will be the first time we see Dos Anjos since he has lost his title. We have no idea what his mental state is or what it will be when the fight starts.
Dos Anjos left Kings MMA where he had been training and began a new camp (h/t Bloody Elbow, translated from Combate). A move of desperation or a necessary shift moving forward? We won't know until the fight happens. Title losses can make fighters stronger or be the tipping point for the downside of their careers. Saturday's main event will give us a better look into the future of Dos Anjos.
Ferguson's X-Factor: Staying Composed
This was touched upon briefly in the striking slide, but Ferguson will allow himself to get drawn into a brawl. In those exchanges, he becomes susceptible to taking big shots. He cannot allow that to happen against Dos Anjos.
Dos Anjos doesn't get enough credit for working the body. If Ferguson allows him to get in range, watch for body shots to pay off over five rounds.
Ferguson needs to stay calm, pick his shots and wait for his opportunities to throw violent combinations. Anything too hasty will see him get clocked by the former champion.
Prediction
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This is a fantastic fight that is being overshadowed by the monster card that is UFC 205.
The former lightweight champion will have his moments, but ultimately I am picking Ferguson to claim his title shot for 2017.
Ferguson's reach will play a big role early in this fight. He will establish his jab to keep Dos Anjos on the outside, and that will give him space to read his opponent. As Dos Anjos seeks more ways to close the distance, Ferguson will unleash knees right down the center.
In the third round, one of those knees will connect to the jaw of Dos Anjos. It won't knock him out clean, but it will rock him to the point where Ferguson can start unloading a fight-ending combination for the TKO. An inability to stick Ferguson on the cage will cost Dos Anjos his chance at reclaiming gold.
For Ferguson? 2017 will be looking very bright.
Prediction: Ferguson defeats Dos Anjos by TKO in the third round
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