TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Baylor and TCU have split six meetings over the last six seasons, but the Horned Frogs, playing as underdogs four times, are 5-1 against the spread over that span. In the 106th meeting between these Lone Star State rivals, the Bears host TCU on Saturday afternoon in Waco.

Point spread: The Bears opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 44.4-30.4 Bears (college football picks on every game)

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs have lost their last two games to fall to 4-4 on the season; last week, they fell in double overtime to Texas Tech 27-24. But of TCU's four losses this season, two now have come in extra frames, another by one score against conference-leading Oklahoma.

TCU took a 7-0 lead late in the first quarter against the Red Raiders and never trailed in regulation. But after the teams traded touchdowns in the first OT, Frogs kicker Brandon Hatfield missed his third field-goal attempt of the day, allowing Tech to kick the game-winner in the bottom of the overtime.

On the afternoon, TCU outgained the Raiders 418-345 and won the ground battle 172-139, but those missed kicks proved terribly costly. On the season, the Frogs have outgained and outrushed five of eight foes.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor was 6-0 but just suffered its first loss of the season, a 35-34 heartbreaker at Texas last week. The Bears trailed the Longhorns 23-14 in the second quarter, used a 20-3 run to take a 34-26 lead midway through the fourth quarter but gave up the last nine points of the game, the last three on a Texas field goal with less than a minute to go.

BU piled up 624 yards of offense on the day, including 398 on the ground, as running back Terence Williams popped off for 180 and quarterback Seth Russell ran for 138. But a second-quarter safety on a Baylor holding penalty in the end zone ultimately decided the game.

At 3-1 in conference play, the Bears now trail first-place Oklahoma by a game-and-a-half, but they get their shot at the Sooners next week. They're just hoping it means something.

Smart pick

Baylor has outgained every opponent this season, while TCU has been outgained in three of its last four games. Also, while the Frogs won this matchup last season 28-21 in overtime, the Bears won the ground battle by 120 yards but turned the ball over five times. In anticipation of a bounce-back effort, the smart money here on the college football lines backs Baylor.

Betting trends

TCU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against Baylor.

The total has gone over in four of TCU's last five games against Baylor.

Baylor is 25-2 straight up and 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games at home.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.