Bowl Predictions 2016: Updated Playoff CFP Projections Heading into Week 10
Week 9 of the college football season was filled with fireworks, but the elite tier of playoff contenders remained in tact on Saturday.
That much was reflected in Sunday's updated Associated Press Top 25 poll, which features the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 1, followed by the Michigan Wolverines, Clemson Tigers and Washington Huskies:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
So before the first College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings of the 2016 season are unveiled on Tuesday, here's a look at our latest projections for which teams should crack the top four.
As a reminder, the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl will serve as this year's CFP semifinals.
No. 1: Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide had a bye in Week 9, so their status as the nation's top team is safe.
That time to rest up should serve Alabama well, too, as a road game against the No. 15 LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge is slated for next Saturday (8 p.m. ET on CBS).
And if performances to this point in the season have been any indication, Alabama and LSU should engage in yet another defensive struggle. The Crimson Tide rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense, surrendering 14.9 points per game, and LSU clocks in at No. 5 at 15.0 points per game allowed.
However, LSU has been vulnerable on the ground, allowing 104.1 rushing yards per contest.
That's good news for the Tide, who have compiled an 11th-ranked 264.8 yards on the ground per day through eight games.
With running back Damien Harris and quarterback Jalen Hurts serving as one of the nation's most dynamic two-pronged attacks, Alabama should be favored to remain undefeated.
If the Crimson Tide roll on, they'll be in position to close out the regular season with three more wins before the SEC Championship. Following Saturday's meeting with LSU, Alabama will square off against Mississippi State, Chattanooga and Auburn.
No. 2: Clemson Tigers
Clemson's moving up.
Although the Tigers rank third in the latest AP poll, Dabo Swinney's club has a resume that's rivaled only by the Crimson Tide.
Following Saturday night's 37-34 win over the Florida State Seminoles, Clemson has three Top 25 wins—two of which (at Auburn and at Florida State) have come on the road. The other Top 25 triumph came against the Louisville Cardinals, who are on the fringe of the CFP conversation after Saturday's narrow win over the Virginia Cavaliers.
"It’s big," Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson said following Saturday's triumph, per the State's Matt Connolly. "Very huge. All road wins are very huge in college football. We made a couple of mistakes but overcame that and got the job done."
While Clemson's efforts haven't always been pretty, as Watson noted, they have engendered confidence that it can win in tough spots.
"The Tigers haven’t played quite like a top-three or top-four team, at least not all the time," SB Nation's Alex Kirshner wrote. "But they’ve sure won like one, and they’re in a terrific spot. I feel like I’m watching 2013 Auburn or 2014 Florida State, or some team like that."
Considering the remainder of Clemson's schedule consists of games against four unranked teams in Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and South Carolina, Clemson has a relatively easy path on paper to another undefeated regular season.
No. 3: Michigan Wolverines
It's always hard to drop a team after a win, especially when that team is the Michigan Wolverines.
But considering Clemson beat a highly ranked Florida State team and Michigan has just one ranked win this season (against then-No. 8 Wisconsin), Michigan moves to No. 3 despite being 8-0 with one of the nation's most balanced teams.
Not only does Michigan's defense rank first among all FBS teams in scoring defense (11.6 points per game), but its offense is also scoring an outrageous 46.6 points per game. To put that number in perspective, only Lamar Jackson's Louisville Cardinals and the Texas Tech Red Raiders are scoring more points on average.
But as strong as those numbers are, the Wolverines can't allow opponents to hang around the way they did on Saturday against the 2-6 Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan led by 17 points at halftime, but an inability to clamp down against the Spartans offense allowed Michigan State to battle back and close the gap to within single digits.
"We just didn’t go out and play," cornerback Jourdan Lewis said, according to the Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "They played a tough game the whole way. They tried to beat us. They gave us their all the whole game. We just didn’t come out (in the fourth) as intense as the second and third quarters."
The good news for the Wolverines is that they'll have a chance to correct those intensity issues next weekend at home against the Maryland Terrapins.
If Michigan can avoid an upset back at the Big House, it will need to survive a tough trio of games against Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State in order to keep its undefeated status in tact.
No. 4: Washington Huskies
If it wasn't clear already, the Washington Huskies are for real.
A dominant 44-6 win over Stanford on Sept. 30 hinted at that fact, but Washington reaffirmed its status as one of the nation's best teams on Saturday when it bested the 16th-ranked Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium behind a game-winning punt return from Dante Pettis:
The Huskies' win over Utah didn't come without some serious hiccups, but their ability to fight through some brief adversity and triumph in one of the nation's most hostile environments reflected positively on the class of the Pac 12.
"Having games with huge leads in the first half, we’ve been fortunate, but I don’t think that’s how it goes from here on out," head coach Chris Petersen said, per the Seattle Times' Larry Stone. "So we need to learn to be able to play, and play with poise, in tight games."
After learning a big lesson Saturday, Washington will need to carry that hard-fought approach into the final month of the regular season.
With four conference showdowns remaining, the Huskies will have to quell California, USC, Arizona State and Washington State to maintain their place in the CFP picture.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
