College Football Week 9 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Week 9, we dub thee Separation Saturday.
While the clash between Clemson and Florida State highlights a slate with three matchups involving ranked programs, every Top 10 team in action except Ohio State is on the road.
Those challenges will be seen in two areas. First—the one that matters—between the white lines. And secondly, between the white space as we pick Top 25 games against the spread after a disappointing week dropped us to 63-67-3 on the year.
Please remember that the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
No. 25 Virginia Tech vs. Pitt
1 of 10
When: Thursday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Virginia Tech (-4.5)
After smacking both North Carolina and Miami, Virginia Tech is a victory over Pitt away from taking control of the ACC Coastal Division.
On the other side, Jenn Menendez of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi said the Thursday night clash is a must-win for the Panthers, who take on Miami and Clemson in the following weeks.
Pitt is 0-4 against the spread at home this season, but it won each game straight up. Narduzzi's team will edge the Hokies and further complicate a messy Coastal race.
The Pick: Pitt (+4.5)
No. 22 Navy vs. South Florida
2 of 10
When: Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Line: South Florida (-8)
Despite losing a strong majority of its production, Navy continues to be a thorn. Although the Midshipmen are big underdogs for the AAC showdown, they have a major advantage.
South Florida ranks 100th nationally against the run. Perhaps the standing is skewed because of two terrible games, but those dreadful performances offer a glimpse of what will happen Friday.
Navy's triple-option attack will control the clock, limiting possessions for an explosive but injured Quinton Flowers.
The Pick: Navy (+8)
No. 2 Michigan vs. Michigan State
3 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
The Line: Michigan (-23.5)
Michigan State supporters may as well pull out the "disrespekt" card because that's the Spartans' only advantage in this one.
While it's possible their defense assembles its best performance of 2016, the offense has a quarterback problem. Wisconsin had more punts than first downs against Michigan, the No. 1 defense in the country. Will it be different for MSU?
The Spartans have looked abysmal throughout their five-game losing streak. Rivalries can get weird, but Michigan hasn't allowed more than 200 total yards since mid-September.
The Pick: Michigan (-23.5)
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No. 10 West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
4 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (Fox)
The Line: West Virginia (-4.5)
Dana Holgorsen teams are typically known for their scoring, but defense is driving this undefeated West Virginia squad.
Oklahoma State will be a challenge. Mason Rudolph is probably the most underrated quarterback prospect in the country, and the receiving corps is explosive. But the Pokes aren't better offensively than Texas Tech, which the Mountaineers throttled two weeks ago.
Plus, Skyler Howard and Co. will stomp a defense that has surrendered at least six yards per play in five of seven games. West Virginia will improve to 7-0 overall and 2-0 ATS on the road.
The Pick: West Virginia (-4.5)
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 17 Utah
5 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
The Line: Washington (-10)
College football has many unwritten guidelines, and one is to never doubt Kyle Whittingham. So let's start doubting Kyle Whittingham.
Utah has jumped out to a 7-1 record, thanks to a resurgent rushing attack. But Washington doesn't have to respect the Utes' passing game, so it can focus on stopping Joe Williams. And while Utah is one of the best teams at forcing turnovers, so are the Huskies—and their offense has committed just five.
Washington will build an early lead behind that balanced, efficient unit. And once Utah must throw to catch up, that only favors the Huskies.
The Pick: Washington (-10)
No. 14 Florida vs. Georgia
6 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Florida (-7.5)
Rivalry games can be senseless. And when two of the nation's most inconsistent teams are pitted against each other, good luck.
Georgia's offense has immense potential, but it hasn't showed in more than flashes. Conversely, Florida's defense has only had one bad game. The secondary—which returned two pick-sixes against Missouri—will be a nightmare for freshman quarterback Jacob Eason.
The question is whether Nick Chubb and Sony Michel can run effectively. After combining for 254 yards at South Carolina, they mustered just 68 against Vanderbilt. We'll lean toward no and an ugly double-digit win for the Gators.
The Pick: Florida (-7.5)
No. 7 Nebraska vs. No. 11 Wisconsin
7 of 10
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Wisconsin (-9)
Wisconsin has a history for playing games closer than they should be, but that works both ways. For example, the Badgers narrowly avoided a loss to Georgia State yet had a potential game-tying possession at Michigan and took Ohio State to overtime.
But the defense just took a hit. Leading tackler Jack Cichy is out for the season, per Jason Galloway of the Wisconsin State Journal. Nebraska has also battled through injury troubles, but Josh Harvey of Scout noted Jordan Westerkamp is listed as probable.
Although the Badgers will protect home field, they'll need a late defensive stop to hand Nebraska its first loss of 2016.
The Pick: Nebraska (+9)
No. 15 Auburn vs. Ole Miss
8 of 10
When: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
The Line: Auburn (-4)
Auburn put together two excellent games against inferior teams, but Arkansas was expected to provide a formidable test. Instead, the Tigers excelled while the Razorbacks looked horrendous.
Meanwhile, following a promising start, Ole Miss struggled mightily at LSU. The Rebels couldn't stop the ground game, and Auburn steamrolled its way to 543 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground—all without Kerryon Johnson.
Plus, pressure derailed the Rebels offense in Death Valley, and Auburn spent Week 8 wreaking havoc on Arkansas. Per CFBStats, the Tigers collected a season-high 15 hurries in addition to four sacks.
Auburn must overcome a prime-time SEC environment, but Gus Malzahn's team will avoid an upset in Oxford.
The Pick: Auburn (-4)
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 12 Florida State
9 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Clemson (-4.5)
It's a good thing style points don't matter, but Clemson is 7-0.
"Winning is hard," defensive coordinator Brent Venables said, per ESPN.com's David M. Hale. "There's all kinds of ways you can win, and fortunately they don't put an asterisk by it. They all count the same."
Although Florida State's defense has improved lately, the unit will surrender too many explosive plays to Clemson's versatile rushing attack and vertical passing game. The Tigers will earn a one-touchdown win and all but lock up the ACC Coastal Division.
The Pick: Clemson (-4.5)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
No. 5 Louisville (-30.5) vs. Virginia
When: Saturday, noon ET (ABC/ESPN2)
Virginia has dropped two straight games at home. Lamar Jackson probably isn't the face the Wahoos want to see. Virginia hasn't held an opponent below 4.3 yards per play, and Louisville is only the most efficient offense in the nation at 7.97 per snap. Jackson and Co. will roll to another blowout win in conference action.
The Pick: Louisville (-30.5)
No. 24 Penn State (-11.5) vs. Purdue
When: Saturday, noon ET (ABC/ESPN2)
All aboard the Penn State hype train! Nah, not really. Stunning Ohio State in Week 8 was an important victory for James Franklin's job security, though. Now, the Nittany Lions need to avoid a letdown against Purdue, which put a scare into Nebraska last week and is 3-0 ATS after a loss. But Penn State is 3-1 ATS following a win, and the defense has consistently improved since getting blown out at Michigan.
The Pick: Penn State (-11.5)
Northwestern vs. No. 6 Ohio State (-25.5)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ohio State has never lost consecutive regular-season outings in Urban Meyer's tenure, and that trend isn't going to change. However, the Buckeyes are riding a three-game losing streak against the spread, while Northwestern has won three straight both outright and ATS. Ohio State will win comfortably, but the Wildcats' stingy defense will atone for a poor showing from the offense.
The Pick: Northwestern (+25.5)
No. 8 Baylor (-3) vs. Texas
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Here's what a lost locker room sounds like: Per Mike Finger of the San Antonio Express-News, defensive tackle Paul Boyette Jr. said Charlie Strong's postgame speeches are "like a broken record." Baylor is coming off a bye week, and it'll waltz past an unraveling Texas team.
The Pick: Baylor (-3)
No. 13 Boise State (-14) vs. Wyoming
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Boise State has a strong chance to finish undefeated. But for that to happen, the offense needs to stop turning the ball over. The Broncos have a negative-eight differential, while Wyoming has the 16th-most takeaways in the country. Boise State is just 2-5 ATS this season, and the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in Mountain West play. Although the Broncos will stay perfect in the standings, it'll be another tight win.
The Pick: Wyoming (+14)
Kansas vs. No. 16 Oklahoma (-40)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
"Road trip" and "Kansas" don't often mix well. The Jayhawks are 0-3 with a 38-point average margin of defeat on the road this season, but they'll be saved by Oklahoma facing short rest. Next Thursday, the Sooners travel to Iowa State, so starters should get pulled early. Plus, Oklahoma has allowed five-plus yards per play in six of seven games. Kansas will score a couple of touchdowns—just nowhere near an upset.
The Pick: Kansas (+40)
No. 18 Tennessee (-13) vs. South Carolina
When: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The story of South Carolina's season is "hope followed by a setback." That roller coaster will continue when a rested and motivated Tennessee team travels to Columbia. The Vols need a victory to remain a top contender in the SEC East. Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd will shred the nation's 103rd-ranked rushing defense to help Tennessee record a much-needed triumph.
The Pick: Tennessee (-13)
New Mexico State vs. No. 9 Texas A&M (-43.5)
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Texas A&M has a similar outlook to Oklahoma. While the opponent isn't a serious challenger for a win, its offense should put up some points. Tyler Rogers has thrown at least two touchdowns in five of the last six games, and Larry Rose III will find some running lanes against the nation's No. 79 rush defense. The SEC Aggies will cruise to a victory, but the Sun Belt Aggies will beat the spread.
The Pick: New Mexico State (+43.5)
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All recruiting information via Scout. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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