Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, Football Pick

Michigan State has been making up ground in its rivalry with Michigan, winning seven of their last eight meetings straight up and going 8-0 against the spread in the process. But the struggling Spartans will have their hands full when they host the undefeated Wolverines in the annual battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.  

Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 21-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 44.0-15.0, Wolverines (college football picks on every game)

Why Michigan can cover the spread

The Maize and Blue just moved to No. 2 in the national rankings, thanks to its 41-8 victory over Illinois and Penn State's upset of Ohio State last week. The Wolverines jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead on the Illini and bumped that to 34-0 late in the third quarter, but they missed the cover as 39-point favorites by allowing Illinois a meaningless fourth-quarter score.

On the afternoon, the Wolverines outgained the Illini 561-172 while winning time of possession by a lopsided 41:23-18:37 margin.

Michigan has now won five of its seven games this season by at least 33 points.

Why Michigan State can cover the spread

The case for Michigan State is tough to make at the moment, considering it's lost five games in a row. Last week, the Spartans led at Maryland going into the fourth quarter but fell 28-17.

Michigan State spotted the Terrapins the game's first touchdown, rallied to take a 17-14 lead but gave up the last 10 points to fall to 0-4 in Big Ten play. It didn't help that the Spartans lost senior linebacker Riley Bullough to a targeting penalty in the second quarter, missed a chance at a field goal just before halftime and later lost a fumble inside the Maryland red zone.

On the day, Michigan State rushed for a season-high 270 yards, as running back LJ Scott came up with his first 100-yard effort since Week 1. So that's encouraging.

Smart pick

Michigan had Michigan State beat last year until that botched punt on the last play of the game. The Wolverines are probably still fuming.

It's been a while since this matchup looked like such a mismatch, but these programs are cycling; Michigan is up after a down period, while the Spartans are going through what they hope is just a one-season rebuilding project. They're also starting a red-shirt freshman at quarterback. The smart money on the college football point-spread wagers is on the Wolverines. 

Betting trends

Michigan is 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against Michigan State.

The total has gone under in five of Michigan's last seven games against Michigan State.

Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.

All college football betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.