College Football Odds Week 8: Latest Top 25 Picks and Final-Score Predictions
The college football landscape has some real head-scratchers in Week 8.
Looking at the most recent lines from Odds Shark, there are some games that have a real Vegas-must-know-something quality to them.
For instance, Auburn, a team that scored between 13-18 points in three of its first four games, is favored by 10 points against Arkansas. West Virginia—despite a blowout win over Texas Tech in Lubbock last week—is not even a full-touchdown favorite over a TCU team that just beat Kansas by one point its last time out.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
In some cases, there's a case to be made that Vegas has the line right. A closer look at the stats reveals that Auburn's rushing attack, which is 38th in the nation at 4.8 yards per carry, is probably going to have a field day against an Arkansas defense that ranks 123rd in rush defense, giving up 5.5 yards per carry.
What follows is a complete listing of the Top 25 games, the lines from Odds Shark and predictions for each. Then we take a closer look at some of the biggest matchups on the slate.
| Thursday, Oct. 20 | BYU | (14) Boise State | BSU -7 | Boise State |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | NC State | (7) Louisville | LOU -19 | NC State |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (10) Wisconsin | Iowa | WISC -3.5 | Wisconsin |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (22) North Carolina | Virginia | UNC -8.5 | UNC |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | Eastern Michigan | (20) Western Michigan | WMU -23.5 | Western Michigan |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (6) Texas A&M | (1) Alabama | BAMA -18.5 | Texas A&M |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | Illinois | (3) Michigan | MICH -36 | Michigan |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | Purdue | (8) Nebraska | NEB -24 | Purdue |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | Memphis | (24) Navy | MEM -2.5 | Navy |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | TCU | (12) West Virginia | WVU -6.5 | West Virginia |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (19) Utah | UCLA | UCLA -7 | Utah |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (17) Arkansas | (21) Auburn | AUB -10 | Auburn |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | Oregon State | (5) Washington | WASH -36.5 | Washington |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (11) Houston | SMU | HOU -21 | SMU |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (2) Ohio State | Penn State | OSU -19.5 | Ohio State |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (16) Oklahoma | Texas Tech | OU -14 | Oklahoma |
| Saturday, Oct. 22 | (23) Ole Miss | (25) LSU | LSU -5.5 | LSU |
Texas A&M at Alabama
After watching Alabama absolutely dismantle the Tennessee Volunteers last week, you'd be excused if you are willing to take Alabama regardless of how many points it is giving to its opponents. The Crimson Tide looked like a machine specifically designed to suck the will to play football out of their own opponents.
Now, they'll face another ranked conference foe when the Aggies roll into Tuscaloosa.
There are a lot of skill players whose names will be talked about leading into this one, but the truth is that this game will be won up front. The Aggies feature one of a few defensive fronts that can legitimately say they are nearly as disruptive as the Crimson Tide up front.
The Solid Verbal noted the similarity both defenses have in their abilities to get into the backfield to make plays:
"Frequency of TFL vs Power 5
— The Solid Verbal (@SolidVerbal) October 19, 2016"
(min 4 gm)
1. Michigan, 16.5%
2. Clemson, 12.5%
3. Alabama, 12.4%
4. Texas A&M, 11.9%
5. Ohio State, 11.7%
While Alabama's crushing defense is well-known, the key for any team looking to slow down Alabama's attack is stopping the run and forcing quarterback Jalen Hurts to beat them throwing the football. With the disruptive front and a run defense that allows just 3.85 yards per carry, the Aggies have the ingredients to do just that.
Alabama is still likely to win the game. The Crimson Tide steamroller appears to be just about unstoppable now. But the Aggies have the right pieces in place to at least make Bama work for it.
If A&M can get this game into the fourth quarter within striking distance, it'll be hard for the Tide to cover the large spread.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Texas A&M 20
Arkansas at Auburn
As previously mentioned, it's hard to believe that the same Auburn team that scored just 16 points against Texas A&M is now favored to beat another ranked team by 10 points.
Yet, it's not that hard to envision the Tigers covering the spread in this case.
In addition to the obvious mismatch that is Auburn's running game against Arkansas' running defense, head coach Gus Malzahn's squad is throwing the ball much better than it did early in the season. As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee noted in the video below, quarterback Sean White has been the catalyst behind a resurgent Auburn team that is quietly impressive:
The truth about Auburn is that the brutal schedule at the beginning of the season probably altered its perception. Playing Clemson and Texas A&M in two of the first three weeks would do that to anyone.
Now, the Tigers are hitting their stride, and Malzahn believes the leadership on his team has a lot to do with it, per Charles Goldberg of AuburnTigers.com:
"The leadership will definitely keep everybody grounded. They're on a mission. They really helped us through the tough times. It really starts with our leaders. They've got a good pulse for our team. Our younger guys really listen to them. They found a way to practice and be ready to practice every practice. There hasn't been any kind of practice where I'd say, 'Aw, we just survived through practice.' And that's tribute to our leaders. As far as things are going better now, this is a well-grounded team and there won't be any issues as far as patting ourselves on the back.
"
Arkansas is coming off an impressive win against Ole Miss, but some advanced metrics still believe that Ole Miss is the better team. Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings put Ole Miss as the No. 9 team in the country, while the Razorbacks are No. 40.
Arkansas might have been able to overcome those odds once this season, but Auburn is ranked No. 8 in the metric, and head coach Bret Bielema's squad will be hard-pressed to repeat that kind of upset.
Prediction: Auburn 42, Arkansas 28
TCU at West Virginia
To put it bluntly, it's surprising that West Virginia isn't a bigger favorite in this game.
The Mountaineers are coming off their best performance of a 5-0 season on the road against Texas Tech. David Ubben of Sports on Earth shared his thoughts about West Virginia's mauling of the Red Raiders:
What's scary for the Horned Frogs is that the same recipe it takes to beat them is more or less the same as it is for beating Tech.
The key for a team beating the Frogs is to stuff the run game and force quarterback Kenny Hill to win the game on his own. That's evidenced by the fact that both of TCU's losses this season have seen the Texas A&M transfer put up big numbers in losing efforts while putting up modest numbers in wins:
| Wins | 100/156 | 64.1 | 329 | 6 | 6 | 139.9 |
| Losses | 62/100 | 62 | 413 | 6 | 2 | 147.1 |
That's a strategy West Virginia can have success with on Saturday. The Mountaineers' run defense isn't stellar, but it does force teams to be patient. As the Solid Verbal noted, WVU is one of the best in the nation at limiting big plays in the run game:
"Frequency of 10+ yd runs allowed
— The Solid Verbal (@SolidVerbal) October 18, 2016"
(of total rushes, min 3 gm vs P5)
1. Mich St, 6.1%
2. LSU, 6.8%
3. Iowa, 7.1%
4. Baylor, 7.6%
5. WVU, 7.7%
Without any breakdowns in the run defense, the Frogs will be forced to either be patient with the run game or start depending on Hill to lead them to victory.
That hasn't been a good recipe for TCU all season, and it should lead to another turnover-filled game for Hill and a win for the Mountaineers.
Prediction: West Virginia 28, TCU 20
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
