NFL Predictions Week 6: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

I’m almost positive the Minnesota Vikings will lose a game at some point this season.

I just have no idea when that might be. Last week’s predictions placed them on "Upset Alert"—I thought Jadeveon Clowney and Co. could get some pressure around backup blockers. Mike Zimmer’s team dropped 21 points on Houston before it could say "Brock Osweiler."

It was a rare miss in an otherwise spot-on Week 5. Derek Carr shredded another defense. The Bills out-picked the Rams on the road. And some guy named Tom Brady blew out the Browns.

Let’s carry that momentum over. I’ve watched hours of film. Now, let me tell you where the action will lay in Week 6.

Upset Alert!

Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Prediction: Chiefs over Raiders

Jamaal Charles is back—and just in time for his annual multitouchdown game versus Oakland.

That’ll bode well for head coach Andy Reid’s sterling reputation after a bye week. The Chiefs coach can reach a 16-2 all-time post-bye-week record by getting Charles his touches. I expect plenty of carries, screens and flat-out receiving routes on Sunday.

I don’t expect the Chiefs to blow four more coverages this week, though. Marcus Peters is back home in Oakland and itching to prove his secondary’s last outing was a fluke (five Ben Roethlisberger touchdown passes) instead of the norm. Remember: He’s gotten the better of Derek Carr before.

This game could easily come down to the last possession. If it belongs to Kansas City, it could hand the rival Raiders their second loss.

Cakewalk of the Week

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Prediction: Steelers over Dolphins

Miami can’t cover a twin-size bed with a king-size sheet.

Up next: A battle against the best deep-ball offense we’ve seen in years. Good luck with that, Adam Gase.

I don’t see a path to success for this Dolphins defense. Its greatest asset—a defensive line led by Ndamukong Suh and Cam Wake—won’t sniff Big Ben behind the Pittsburgh line. Roethlisberger will have all day to rip Miami a new one.

And rip he will. Sammie Coates can roast his cover, be it Tony Lippett or Xavien Gooden. Antonio Brown can turn any five-yard post into an 80-yard score. Le’Veon Bell will take whatever he wants against any Miami linebacker, too.

Now flip the script: Ryan Tannehill won’t have time to even the score against a defense that’s still great without Cam Heyward. I say it’s Steelers by three scores.

Matchup Nightmare

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Prediction: Bengals linebackers vs. Patriots offense

Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict are in for 60 minutes of hell.

Both Cincinnati linebackers need to figure out how to stop LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots' power-running game—all while making sure that Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett don’t roast them by air. It’s an impossible ask.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will run Blount enough to establish a ground presence. Then…play action. Play action. Even more play action.

Tom Brady knows neither linebacker’s best asset is turning and running in coverage. He also knows formation could spring wide-open passes; McDaniels stacked Gronk and Bennett on the same side of the formation and totally befuddled the Browns last week.

I expect more of the same. New England is kind of uncoverable right now.

Sleeper QB

Al Pereira/Getty Images

Prediction: Alex Smith

I’ve already predicted a strong outing from Andy Reid’s team overall.

Let me go a step further. I expect Alex Smith can go toe-to-toe with the fifth-ranked scoring offense in football—and maybe come out on top.

Remember: No defense in football is surrendering more yards than the Raiders are. I think Smith can pick on two Raiders defensive backs: Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson. The former is Smith’s old teammate, and the latter is playing like a 33-year-old safety should. He’ll also pick on Raiders linebackers because none of them can cover Travis Kelce.

Smith’s last appearance on Sunday Night Football might’ve turned a lot of people off. It was one game—miserable but not an indication of what he he can really do.

Sleeper RB

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Prediction: Chris Ivory

Chicago is really stubborn about how it attacks an offense.

Jacksonville should be just as stubborn in countering it. Its power running back is finally healthy and ready to ram against some advantageous fronts.

This is the week Chris Ivory breaks out. When healthy, his yards-after-contact ability is matched by guys such as Adrian Peterson and…not many others. It’s not like the Bears defense fields a group of sound tacklers, either.

Chicago won’t help itself by essentially playing nine-on-11 defensive football. It sits two safeties back off the line of scrimmage to talk teams out of throwing the long ball. I don’t see why the Bears would stop with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in town.

Ivory can make them pay. He’ll rattle off eight-yard runs like nothing in Week 6.

Sleeper WR/TE

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Prediction: Cole Beasley

Ever think the Cowboys’ top pass-catching option would be Cole Beasley?

It’s happening right now. The SMU product has as many catches as Odell Beckham Jr.—and he’s doing more with his opportunities than OBJ is right now.

The relationship he’s forged with Dak Prescott will come in handy this week. The Green Bay pass defense is still banged-up; Beasley can separate on his normal crossing patterns and swing stuff. He can also run some of the rub/drag routes Prescott wants to throw off play action.

Those fakes should be there all game. The Packers won’t let Ezekiel Elliott run wild, and that’ll help Beasley break free.

Instant-Impact Rookie

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Prediction: Michael Thomas

Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis can only cover so many holes in coverage.

Michael Thomas can find the ones they don’t reach. I think he’s in for a Marques Colston-like day against Carolina’s zone coverage.

Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will draw Carolina’s top two cornerbacks. Who’s that leave to stick with Thomas, though? That job might’ve fallen to Bene Benwikere—except he’s playing in Miami now.

Thomas can establish himself as Drew Brees’ second or third read. He’s not afraid to go over the middle. And Sean Payton isn’t afraid to call some plays for him. Expect big stats from No. 13 in white and gold.

Best Game No One’s Talking About

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Prediction: Falcons at Seahawks

We all figured the Seahawks would contend for a playoff spot in 2016.

No one outside of Atlanta had the Falcons doing the same. That’s just a fact—and it’s one of many that make this Week 6 matchup so cool.

Here’s another: Richard Sherman on Julio Jones. Seattle has been more flexible with its top cornerback in recent years; Sherman has manned up Dez Bryant, A.J. Green and Antonio Brown. These two stars will find each other regardless of what coverage the Seahawks deploy.

Jimmy Graham-Keanu Neal. Devonta Freeman-Bobby Wagner. These two teams are built so similarly that an exciting matchup is almost inevitable. And it’ll all take place in the loudest stadium in pro sports.

More Passing Yards: Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson?

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Prediction: Russell Wilson

I need to see someone throw on this Seahawks secondary before I pick against it with any kind of confidence.

Until then, I’ll take Russell Wilson. Seattle’s starter was playing light out as a pocket quarterback before the bye. He might mix some signature razzle-dazzle back in his game now that his knee and ankle have had time to rest.

Atlanta’s pass defense has been much better than advertised through five weeks. Can it stop a full-throttle Jimmy Graham? Or the speedy duo of Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett? I’m not so sure it can.

More Passing Touchdowns: Carson Wentz or Kirk Cousins?

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Prediction: Carson Wentz

Only five teams have gained fewer yards than the Philadelphia offense.

Time to panic, right? Wrong. The Eagles’ early bye week is the only culprit here—not Carson Wentz’s stellar play. And you should never judge a rookie quarterback by the numbers.

Make up your mind about Wentz when you watch him this weekend. The kid has Roethlisberger-like ability when it comes to fitting throws in windows 15-25 yards away. I think he’ll freeze Washington’s weak linebacking corps on play-action fakes and shred the secondary behind it.

Kirk Cousins can keep up, but he’ll have one eye on Philly’s big, nasty front four. Jim Schwartz knows how to dial up some pressure, and Cousins might hurry some easy throws.

More Total Yards: Le’Veon Bell or Sammie Coates?

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Prediction: Le’Veon Bell

Talk about an exercise in picking your poison.

Sammie Coates gets his yards in bulk. He has a 40-plus-yard reception in five consecutive games to start this season and leads the NFL at 22.2 yards per catch. If he can get three or four deep passes, he could be in for a big day as he usually doesn’t square off against a secondary as bad as Miami’s.

But I’m going with the best running back in football. Why? Because the Steelers use Le’Veon Bell more. They’ll feed him on the ground, in the screen game, out wide as a receiver, in the Wildcat and so on.

Miami’s linebackers might be worse than its defensive backs; Bell will take whatever he wants. I think he’ll take more than Coates at the end of the day.

More Receiving Yards: Benjamin and Olsen or Cooks and Snead?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Prediction: Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen

This pick isn’t just a referendum on New Orleans’ bad defense. It’s an honest analysis of two different passing games.

Drew Brees had an extra week to figure out ways to get his top wideouts the football. Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks aren’t the only pass-catchers in town, though. The Saints have Coby Fleener and Brandon Coleman and Michael Thomas and Travaris Cadet and…enough guys to chip away at Cooks and Snead’s numbers.

Ted Ginn Jr. and Corey Brown don’t scare me like that. The Panthers' passing game is Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. Cam Newton rarely throws a pass without looking at one or both of them.

Under/Over Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Line: 99.5

Prediction: Under

I’ll be dammed if Dom Capers is going to let Ezekiel Elliott run wild for a second straight week.

Capers is going to pack the box and dare Dak Prescott to make downfield reads. His Packers defense won’t be bullied like the Bengals were.

How can I be so sure? For starters, Green Bay has two awesome run-stuffers in Letroy Guion and Mike Daniels. Those two can give even the most dominant line in football a run for its money. And Capers rotates five or six more run-stopping talents to keep his top ones fresh. Green Bay currently leads the NFL allowing only 42.8 rushing yards-per game and an incredible 2.0 yards-per-carry on 86 attempts through four games.

Let’s say Dallas breaks through. I still like the new-look linebacking corps in Green Bay to clean up. Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez have played inspired ball. Both guys have helped the Green Bay defense stifle running backs all year.