College Football Odds Week 7: Picks, Score Predictions for Top 25 Teams
College football's Week 7 slate is anchored by games in which the odds-on favorites to play for the national championship will take on ranked conference foes.
According to the most recent futures from Odds Shark, the Alabama Crimson Tide are the favorites to win the championship this season at 5-2 odds. That status will be put to the test when head coach Nick Saban's squad travels to Tennessee to take on a Volunteers team that is coming off its first loss of the season.
The headliner for Saturday's evening slate of games will see the Ohio State Buckeyes attempt to navigate Camp Randall Stadium and the Wisconsin Badgers. Ohio State comes in with the second-best odds to win the College Football Playoff at 13-4 odds.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The two heavyweight battles are supplemented by just one other Top 25 matchup. The No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels will pay a visit to the No. 22 Arkansas Razorbacks in SEC action. Here's a look at the latest polls and the complete Top 25 schedule with the latest odds from Odds Shark.
| Friday, Oct. 14 | 7 p.m. | Duke at Louisville | Louisville -35 | Louisville |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 12 p.m. | Kansas State at Oklahoma | Oklahoma -11 | Oklahoma |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 12 p.m. | West Virginia at Texas Tech | Texas Tech -1 | Texas Tech |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 12 p.m. | NC State at Clemson | Clemson -17.5 | Clemson |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 3:30 p.m. | Wake Forest at Florida State | Florida State -21 | Florida State |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 3:30 p.m. | Kansas at Baylor | Baylor -35 | Baylor |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 3:30 p.m. | Nebraska at Indiana | Nebraska -3.5 | Nebraska |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 3:30 p.m. | North Carolina at Miami | Miami -7.5 | Miami |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 3:30 p.m. | Alabama at Tennessee | Alabama -13 | Alabama |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 3:45 p.m. | Virginia Tech at Syracuse | Virginia Tech -19.5 | Syracuse |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 4 p.m. | Utah at Oregon State | Utah -9 | Utah |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 4 p.m. | Missouri at Florida | Florida -13.5 | Missouri |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 7 p.m. | Ole Miss at Arkansas | Ole Miss -6.5 | Ole Miss |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 7 p.m. | Tulsa at Houston | Houston -21.5 | Houston |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 7:30 p.m. | Stanford at Notre Dame | Notre Dame -3 | Stanford |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 8 p.m. | Ohio State at Wisconsin | Ohio State -10 | Ohio State |
| Saturday, Oct. 15 | 10:15 p.m. | Colorado State at Boise State | Boise State -25.5 | Boise State |
Games of the Week
Alabama at Tennessee
Last week, the magic finally ran out on the Tennessee Volunteers. After five weeks of comebacks, an early deficit finally proved to be too much against Texas A&M.
Now, the Vols have to attempt a turnaround against the No. 1 team in the country.
The Tide have won nine in a row against the Vols and will try to make it 10 in the 99th game in the series. However, Tennessee gave them a scare last season, as they only fell 19-14 in Tuscaloosa.
A similar outcome this Saturday would be a surprise from a betting perspective, as the Tide are 13-point favorites.
Alabama is likely to cover that spread, because as the video below notes, this matchup is all about the running game.
Both teams love to use their strong running games to set up play-action passes. According to TeamRankings.com, Alabama runs the ball on 56.7 percent of its plays, while the Vols run it 57.6 percent of the time.
The difference is that while Tennessee is only average at stopping the run, Alabama is one of the best in that nation at it.
Tennessee is 81st in the nation in yards allowed per carry, giving up 4.5 on average. They also give up 183 rushing yards per game, which ranks 86th. Meanwhile, the Tide are tops in the country in yards per carry at 2.2 and rushing yards per game at just 69.1.
Alabama is likely to shut down the Vols' rushing attack and render them one-dimensional, even at home. It's unlikely that Tennessee's subpar run defense will even slow down Alabama's rushing attack, and when that's the case, the floodgates can open.
Ole Miss at Arkansas
Football is a sport of matchups, and Arkansas hasn't been a great matchup for Ole Miss recently.
The Razorbacks have a two-game winning streak against the Rebels, and Hugh Freeze has acknowledged that taking on Bret Bielema's squad hasn't been easy for his team.
"I think matchups are important in college football," Freeze said, per David Brandt of the Associated Press. "Sometimes you look at them and feel 'Oh I like this matchup' and then other teams seem to give you more of a problem. They've been that to us the past few years."
This might be the year the Rebels right the ship against Arkansas, though.
The Razorbacks are usually brutally efficient on offense, attacking defenses with the subtlety of a bulldozer through their running game. However, this year's running game isn't nearly as dominant as usual. The team is ninth in the SEC in rushing yards per game (176.3) and yards per carry (4.4).
That's all good news for the Rebels, who aren't particularly good at stopping the run.
Arkansas isn't as sound at defending the pass as usual, either. It ranks 12th in the SEC in yards allowed per attempt. With quarterback Chad Kelly leading the SEC in yards per pass attempt, the stars have aligned for the signal-caller to have a big day. Ole Miss should snap its cold streak against the Hogs.
Ohio State at Wisconsin
The Ohio State Buckeyes have been nothing but dominant this season. Every win has come by at least 21 points in their perfect 5-0 start.
Now, they'll travel to Wisconsin to take on a defense that only allows 12.2 points per game.
The Badgers defense is for real. Whether looking at traditional stats like points and yards allowed or advanced metrics like Football Outsiders' S&P+, Wisconsin has played defense as well as anybody.
| 2 | Points Allowed/Game | 4 |
| 2 | Yards Allowed/Play | 27 |
| 4 | Yards Allowed/Game | 11 |
| 7 | S&P+ | 6 |
Stopping the Ohio State offense is another beast altogether, though.
As Michael Felder noted in the video below, the Ohio State offense is so hard to stop because J.T. Barrett is quite possibly the best quarterback to run head coach Urban Meyer's system, and he has a deep receiving core this year that won't allow defenses to lock in on one guy.
Barrett is having a great season as a passer, completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 981 yards with 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions. But he also has 342 yards rushing and four additional touchdowns on the ground.
The problem for Wisconsin is that while it has a legitimate top-tier defense, so does Ohio State. As the table indicates, the stats aren't far off for each team.
That means it's going to come down to which offense can figure out how to break down the defense more often. The Buckeyes are much more equipped to do that than the Badgers are at this point.
Expect Ohio State to join Alabama in making big statements regarding why they should be favorites to win the national championship.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
