The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 14
Week 13 was our nightmare week, as we were on the wrong side of several very close lines, a Buffalo Bills collapse against the Oakland Raiders and a surprise benching of Cam Newton on Sunday Night Football. With a full slate of games in Week 14, the first since Week 3, we have plenty of time to make up the distance.
We'll go over every aspect of point spreads, using projected lines from the Massey Ratings and FiveThirtyEight to see where lines are overinflated from a power ranking and numbers perspective. We'll also use TeamRankings.com to find up-to-date trends spanning over the last two seasons over various situations.
As always, our lines are brought to you via OddsShark, which compiles books online and in Vegas to find you the best value, for both the teams we do and do not select in our picks.
Record ATS total: 80-92-4
Record ATS last week: 4-10
Oakland vs. Kansas City
1 of 17
The line: Kansas City -3
The result: Kansas City 21, Oakland 13
For the most part, multi-score wins and losses are better predictors of future success than the ability to win close games. If you are within a one-score game, the difference between winning and losing is simply one play.
This year, the Oakland Raiders are 7-1 in close games, an amazing, unsustainable rate. The Kansas City Chiefs, a talented team, have now beat them in back-to-back games and are now in control of the AFC West and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The emergence of Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs has made them a big-play team, even without testing the deep ball often with quarterback Alex Smith. That's significant, especially for a Kansas City team that has won 20 of its last 23 regular-season games.
Cover: Kansas City
Washington vs. Philadelphia
2 of 17
Best home line: Philadelphia +2.5
Best away line: Washington PK
Red Alert. The Philadelphia Eagles aren't one of the worst teams in the league, and they're home underdogs against an in-division foe.
According to both FiveThirtyEight and the Massey Ratings, the Eagles should be home favorites against the Washington Redskins, which means that not only does this game have value on the point spread, but a straight-up bet on Philadelphia.
The Eagles being underrated at home is nothing new this season. They are 4-1 against the spread this year in Philadelphia, according to TeamRankings.com.
The pick: Philadelphia +2.5
Minnesota vs. Jacksonville
3 of 17
Best home line: Jacksonville +3.5
Best away line: Minnesota -3
Sit back and think about this one for a second. The Minnesota Vikings lost by two points against the Dallas Cowboys, who might be the best squad in the NFL, on Thursday Night Football last week, which means that they have extra rest heading into this game.
On the flip side, the Jacksonville Jaguars are led by a head coach who has a career record of 14-43, winning less than a quarter of his games. Both in margin of victory and margin of victory against the spread, the Jaguars are only second to the 0-12 Cleveland Browns in terms of how bad they are at home, according to TeamRankings.com.
Of those 46 losses under head coach Gus Bradley, 44 of them came by three or more points. Skol.
The pick: Minnesota -3
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Chicago vs. Detroit
4 of 17
Best home line: Detroit -7
Best away line: Chicago +9
Chicago Bears quarterback Matt Barkley, who was a third-stringer behind Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer at one point, has thrown for three touchdowns and four interceptions this season. For his career, he has three passing touchdowns and eight interceptions in four years.
Against the now 1-11 San Francisco 49ers last week, it took him until 1:43 left in the second quarter to record his first registered completion against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That team isn't going to have a quarterback advantage this week.
At the same time, Matthew Stafford has thrown for 38 touchdowns and six interceptions since Week 12 of last season. This year, Detroit is 3-1 against the spread as home favorites, per TeamRankings.com, while Chicago is 1-4 against the spread as road dogs.
The pick: Detroit -7
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
5 of 17
Best home line: Cleveland +6
Best away line: Cincinnati -5
How you play games is more of a reflection of a team's talent than if they win or lose a game. The 4-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals, to some extent, are on the unlucky side of the coin for the amount of close games that they've lost this season.
For reference, three of their four wins came by multiple scores, just one short of the mark the 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks have been able to accomplish this season. On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns can't even manage to get one single win on the board.
While you assume that a bye week would help Cleveland's chances to get its first win on the season, it went full Browns when its rookie safety Derrick Kindred had his year ended due to injury in his off week. At some point, you just have to say it isn't a team's year.
Cleveland is 0-6 against the spread at home this season, per TeamRankings.com, its margin of victory is negative-13.7, with the second-worst mark in the NFL being negative-7.2, and its margin of victory against the spread is also the worst in the league.
The pick: Cincinnati -5
Arizona vs. Miami
6 of 17
Best home line: Miami +2
Best away line: Arizona +1.5
The Arizona Cardinals have five wins this season. The Miami Dolphins had a six-game winning streaking heading into last week's game against the Baltimore Ravens.
If there's ever been a knee jerk with enough violence that it could tear the public's ACL, it's the Cardinals being road pick'em candidates this week. This line means that Arizona would be about a touchdown favorite at home against the Dolphins, despite the fact that they've had a worse season.
The Cardinals have a 4-8 record against the spread, the fourth-worst in the NFL, according to TeamRankings.com, for a reason. People are giving them credit for their 2015 squad that went 13-3. Quarterback Carson Palmer is seventh in the league with 11 interceptions thrown this year, despite the fact that he threw only 11 last season in total and nearly posted double the passing touchdowns he currently has.
The pick: Miami +2
Houston vs. Indianapolis
7 of 17
Best home line: Indianapolis -6
Best away line: Houston +7
This line is a direct overreaction to the last few weeks of play. Sure, the Brock Osweiler-led Houston Texans aren't great on the offensive side of the ball, but the Indianapolis Colts have the same record as the Texans for a reason: They aren't very talented, either.
Indianapolis blew the doors off a bad New York Jets team on Monday Night Football, but that just gave the public a chance to overreact to a single nationally televised game leading up to a short week of preparation. Before that game, the Colts won just one game this whole season by multiple scores, which is what this line assumes for a non-push.
On the other hand, in the first 10 games of the season, the Texans only lost two games by more than one score, despite their 1-5 record on the road this season. This line is just too many points.
The pick: Houston +7
Denver vs. Tennessee
8 of 17
Best home line: Tennessee PK
Best away line: Denver +1
How many points is Trevor Siemian worth? Top quarterbacks in the NFL, like Ben Roethlisberger, are worth about six or seven points of value relative to their backup passers, but the drop from Siemian to Denver's No. 2 quarterback, rookie Paxton Lynch, can't be that steep, considering Siemian's talent.
Even a month ago, if you would have said that the Denver Broncos were underdogs to the Tennessee Titans, anywhere on Earth, the majority of the public, sharps and books would have reacted in the same way: aligning themselves with the Broncos.
A rookie quarterback may dissuade you from this line, but there has been historical value on putting money on rookie passers, since the public hates to do so. At the end of the day, according to TeamRankings.com, Denver is 9-1 against the spread as underdogs over the last two seasons.
The pick: Denver +1
San Diego vs. Carolina
9 of 17
Best home line: Carolina PK
Best away line: San Diego +1.5
Since quarterback Cam Newton was drafted first overall, the Carolina Panthers are 3-1 against the spread as home underdogs, according to TeamRankings.com. They haven't been a home underdog all season, so they've never been as underrated as now, as they're pick'em candidates against a sub-.500 San Diego Chargers season.
The public is grading this team off a nationally televised game against the Seattle Seahawks, who very well might have a first-round bye in the playoffs, after its head coach surprisingly suspended the reigning NFL MVP and his backup quarterback threw an interception on the first play of the game. That's not normal.
History says ride with the Panthers here.
The pick: Carolina PK
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
10 of 17
Best home line: Buffalo +3
Best away line: Pittsburgh -1
Though the Buffalo Bills lost to the Oakland Raiders by two scores last week, they did do enough to build up a 24-9 lead in the third quarter before imploding. Buffalo's offense can score when running back LeSean McCoy is in, but its defense just wasn't enough to hold up for 60 minutes against the Raiders.
Luckily for the Bills, the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't close offensively to Oakland this year, even though they might have one of the best trios in the sport between quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Raiders have the fourth-best offense in the league, while the Steelers have the eighth-best offense in the NFL.
Since the end of the 2010 season, the Steelers have only finished over .500 as road favorites against the spread in one single season, which you would think correlates to their stock as a "public" team. This is a case of an underrated home team going up against a public road squad, leading to the home team being listed as straight-up underdogs.
Both the Massey Ratings and FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating have value on Buffalo from a point-spread standpoint relative to these lines, too.
The pick: Buffalo +3
New York Jets vs. San Francisco
11 of 17
Best home line: San Francisco -2.5
Best away line: New York Jets +3
The New York Jets have three wins as the laughingstock of the AFC East right now, but that's still three times as many wins as the San Francisco 49ers have posted this season.
In 12 games, the 49ers have played in three fewer one-possession games than the Jets, all games that they lost by multiple scores. At the end of the day, the Jets are just better than the 49ers.
Maybe New York head coach Todd Bowles' emotional news conference motivates the team. Maybe Bryce Petty taking over as the starting quarterback motivates the team. Maybe not putting money on a 1-11 favorite motivates you to side with the Jets.
The pick: New York Jets +3
New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
12 of 17
Best home line: Tampa Bay -2.5
Best away line: New Orleans +3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-4 against the spread at home this season and 5-9 overall under quarterback Jameis Winston. Of the 32 teams in the league, only seven, including the Buccaneers, have a negative point differential at home.
Quietly, New Orleans is 4-0-1 against the spread on the road, per TeamRankings.com. The Saints are improving, as they allowed over 28 points on the defensive side of the ball four of the first five games of the season, while they haven't allowed that many points in the last seven weeks.
This is the tale of an underrated team coming off a win going head-to-head with an underrated team coming off a loss. Layup.
The pick: New Orleans +3
Atlanta vs. Los Angeles
13 of 17
Best home line: Los Angeles +7
Best away line: Atlanta -5.5
As a home team this season, the Los Angeles Rams have scored only 58 points. The second-worst team in the NFL, the 0-12 Cleveland Browns, have scored 93 points at home, more than 50 percent better than the Rams.
Los Angeles is essentially averaging an 11-point game at home on the offensive side of the ball, which means that the Atlanta Falcons would only have to score 17 points to cover a 5.5-point spread on the road. On the offensive side of the ball, Atlanta has scored 23 or more points, a touchdown more than the number it needed to hit, in 11 of its 12 games this season.
The Rams have lost seven of their last eight games. They aren't good.
The pick: Atlanta -5.5
Seattle vs. Green Bay
14 of 17
Best home line: Green Bay +3
Best away line: Seattle -2.5
This is not an overreaction to two weeks of solid play for the Green Bay Packers. This is just a play on numbers.
As three-point home underdogs, that means the Seattle Seahawks would be somewhere been nine- and 11-point favorites if this game were played in Seattle. Basing that off the 2016 Seahawks team, not the brand of those which went on runs to the Super Bowl, is insane.
Seattle is 2-3-1 on the road this season, and if it didn't win a one-score game against the New England Patriots, we'd be asking if a squad that has only beaten the 3-9 New York Jets on the road can make a splash in the postseason. Because of that one win, though, we now think of the Seahawks as contenders, even if the public is using selective memory.
Both the Massey Ratings and FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating make statistical arguments for the Packers having a valuable line as full field-goal dogs at home. According to TeamRankings.com, the Aaron Rodgers Packers have only been home underdogs four times in his career, and they are 3-1 against the spread in those situations.
The pick: Green Bay +3
Dallas vs. New York Giants
15 of 17
Best home line: New York Giants +4
Best away line: Dallas -3
The Dallas Cowboys are 9-3 against the spread this season, the best mark in the NFL. Not only that, but their three losses against the spread came by two points in Week 1 and a half-point in the last two weeks back-to-back.
Four points of value would be the difference between a lossless Cowboys teams in terms of gambling. The 11-1 team is also second in the NFL in terms of average margin of victory, only behind the New England Patriots, and it averages a plus-7 margin of victory over the spread, while the second-best team is listed at plus-4.5 for the season.
Dallas is red-hot and is just three-point road favorites. As long as you can get that key number, pull the trigger.
The pick: Dallas -3
Baltimore vs. New England
16 of 17
Best home line: New England -7
Best away line: Baltimore +7.5
How many more times are you going to bet against New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick in one-score games? New England leads the NFL with a 9-3 record against the spread and the best margin of victory in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens are a quality football team, but they aren't great. They do some things well, like stop the run, but even when they go up against a dominant force, like they did against the Dallas Cowboys, they lose straight up and against the spread.
The only team that Dallas is behind in terms of margin of victory is the Patriots, and the Cowboys also have a 9-3 record against the spread this season. Baltimore is good, but not Patriots good, and history has shown us that when you bet against Brady squads when they are "Patriots good," you're likely to lose your money on one-score lines.
The pick: New England -7
Locks of the Week
17 of 17
1. Baltimore vs. New England +7
2. Dallas -3 vs. New York Giants
3. Atlanta -5.5 vs Los Angeles
4. New Orleans +3 vs. Tampa Bay
5. Denver +1 vs. Tennessee
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