The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 12
After a long day of Thanksgiving football, we still have a full slate of NFL football on Sunday. With a few close losses last week, we hope to get over .500 with the remaining schedule in Week 12.
As always, we'll reference FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating and the Massey Rating to see how much teams should be favored by. With that and TeamRankings.com's trend database, we'll try to use information to win this week.
Odds Shark, a site which aggregates lines across the internet and in Vegas, will provide the lines we choose from.
Record ATS total: 69-77-4
Record ATS last week: 6-8
Thanksgiving Day
1 of 14
Minnesota vs. Detroit
The Minnesota Vikings were anything from one-point underdogs to 2.5-point underdogs heading into this game. The Detroit Lions won by three points in a 16-13 game on a last-second field goal.
Washington vs. Dallas
In the second game of the day, the Dallas Cowboys, who were seven- to six-point favorites, won a 31-26 game. While they were in control for the vast majority of the game, they came just short of covering the spread.
Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis
As nine-point favorites, the Pittsburgh Steelers won a 28-7 game. This was Ben Roethlisberger vs. Scott Tolzien—the result was expected.
San Francisco vs. Miami
2 of 14
Best home line: Miami -7.5
Best away line: San Francisco +9
The Miami Dolphins have won five straight games, mostly because of the bump that they have received from running back Jay Ajayi. On the other hand, the San Francisco 49ers are 1-9 this season, losing seven games by multiple scores.
Miami hasn't had a great home-field advantage in the last decade or so, but Ajayi, and head coach Adam Gase's willingness to ride him, has completely flipped the script recently. If the Dolphins don't have to pass, Gase doesn't want to.
The 49ers have allowed 1,795 rushing yards this year. Only one other team has allowed over 1,261 rushing yards heading into Week 12. San Francisco also allows 5.2 yards per carry, with no other team allowing over a 4.6-yard average.
Ajayi will get this game to double digits.
The pick: Miami -7.5
Tennessee vs. Chicago
3 of 14
Best home line: Chicago +5.5
Best away line: Tennessee -3
Matt Barkley has thrown for zero touchdowns and six interceptions—with another one called back—in his NFL career. He has a career passer rating of 34.2. He's the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears this week.
Under no circumstances should you put money on Barkley in a one-score game against a starting-caliber NFL quarterback in Tennessee's Marcus Mariota.
The pick: Chicago +5.5
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Arizona vs. Atlanta
4 of 14
Best home line: Atlanta -4
Best away line: Arizona +5
The Atlanta Falcons should be favorites here, but since this line is over three points, you need to think about taking Arizona. This is nothing more than a numbers play.
According to the Massey Rating, the Falcons should be 4.5-point favorites, and FiveThirtyEight's Elo numbers don't even state that they should be a field-goal favorite. If you can find this number at five or higher, you're good money.
As a home favorite over the past two years, the Falcons are a combined 1-8 against the spread, per TeamRankings.com.
The pick: Arizona +5
Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
5 of 14
Best home line: Baltimore -3.5
Best away line: Cincinnati +4.5
This is a four-point line in favor of the Baltimore Ravens. How on earth is that possible?
Think about it this way, the Cincinnati Bengals just lost wideout A.J. Green, the heart of their offense, and home-field advantage is worth three points—and might be worth a notch more for Baltimore. That means if you take home-field advantage out of the equation, the 3-6-1 Bengals are only one point worse than the Ravens, who are most like going to the playoffs, on a neutral field.
A four-point line is closer to what you'd see if this game were in Mexico City or London, not Baltimore. There's value on the Ravens in this one.
The pick: Baltimore -4
New York Giants vs. Cleveland
6 of 14
Best home line: Cleveland +7.5
Best away line: New York Giants -7
The Cleveland Browns are 0-11 straight up. The Cleveland Browns are 0-5 against the spread as home underdogs, according to TeamRankings.com.
The Browns have lost seven games by multiple scores, and the only team with a winning record that kept it within a score against Cleveland was the 6-4 Miami Dolphins—and that was in Week 3, before the Dolphins adjusted their offense and went on a 5-0 run.
The Browns are more focused on the development of young players than winning games immediately. That's all good and dandy, but that's exactly why the Jacksonville Jaguars have had a horrible record under head coach Gus Bradley. The Bradley Jaguars and Hue Jackson Browns are too similar, and that means you need to align yourself against them.
The pick: Cleveland +7.5
Los Angeles vs. New Orleans
7 of 14
Best home line: New Orleans -7
Best away line: Los Angeles +8.5
The Los Angeles Rams are going to be starting Jared Goff, a rookie with one NFL game under his belt, on the road in a dome against the New Orleans Saints. That's not ideal, and they will likely lose the game.
The Saints are getting better defensively, as they started the season by allowing at least 34 points in four of their first five games, but no team has put up more than 25 points against them in the last four weeks. Still, 8.5 points is a big line to cover for a 4-6 team.
They've only won one game by more than five points this entire season. Assuming this line is problematic at best.
The pick: New Orleans -7
Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
8 of 14
Best home line: Buffalo -7
Best away line: Jacksonville +9
The Buffalo Bills have the sixth-best margin of victory in the league, and they have the third-best margin of victory against the spread, per TeamRankings.com. The Jacksonville Jaguars have won two road games in regulation in the last three seasons.
For a one-score line, this is a layup. Ride with the Bills going over .500 and winning by multiple scores.
The pick: Buffalo -7
San Diego vs. Houston
9 of 14
Best home line: Houston +2
Best away line: San Diego PK
The Houston Texans are ninth-worst in the NFL in margin of victory against the spread, while the San Diego Chargers are ninth-best, per TeamRankings.com. The biggest difference between these two teams, from a record juxtaposed to power-ranking standpoint, is their strength of schedule.
The Texans haven't had to play many talented teams this year, and the Chargers, despite their record, can still hang around with the best teams in the league. Houston is coming off a short week, too.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, San Diego has a better offense, defense and special teams than the Texans. As long as this number is under three points, there's value in taking the Chargers, who, frankly, are just the better team in a pick'em situation, no matter where the game is being played.
The pick: San Diego PK
Seattle vs. Tampa Bay
10 of 14
Best home line: Tampa Bay +6.5
Best away line: Seattle -5.5
On a yearly basis, the Seattle Seahawks stumble out of the gate and get hot down the stretch. This year, while winning games, there were serious concerns about the Seahawks offense.
After scoring just 15 points over the first two games of the season, the Seahawks have only lost one game in the last nine weeks. In the first seven games of the season, Seattle would only have covered a 5.5-point line once. In the last three weeks, the Seahawks would have covered a 5.5-point line in all three games.
Russell Wilson is 13-2 straight up in November since 2013.
The pick: Seattle -5.5
Carolina vs. Oakland
11 of 14
Best home line: Oakland -3
Best away line: Carolina +4
The Carolina Panthers are 3-1 in their last four games, and they've needed wins to keep their season alive. At 4-6, they are fighting for their playoff lives every time they step on the field.
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a big international game on Monday Night Football. This is a battle of one talented team in desperation mode against a young squad that has strung together a plethora of close wins to find themselves in first place in the AFC.
As long as this line is over the key number of three, side with the Panthers.
The pick: Carolina +4
New England vs. New York Jets
12 of 14
Best home line: New York Jets +9.5
Best away line: New England -7.5
All of the money is going to be on the New England Patriots here. They are the New England Patriots.
Las Vegas is Las Vegas. They don't build casinos because they lose money on football lines.
The Patriots are 9.5-point favorites on the road. In New England, that's a three-score game.
The Jets are still an NFL team. That line is too high.
The pick: New York Jets +9.5
Kansas City vs. Denver
13 of 14
Best home line: Denver -3
Best away line: Kansas City +4
The Kansas City Chiefs are a team led by their defense. According to the team's website, their No. 1 cornerback, Marcus Peters, has been limited in practice all week. Ten-sack pass-rusher Dee Ford has also missed practice all week. If they can't play, that completely reshapes what the Chiefs can do as a team.
There is a questionable team on the road—in a divisional game against a potential playoff team—and the line is at three points. That's the hidden value some don't necessarily see when they look at this game.
The pick: Denver -3
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
14 of 14
Best home line: Philadelphia -3.5
Best away line: Green Bay +4
The Philadelphia Eagles have the second-best margin of victory against the spread in the league, according to TeamRankings.com. The Green Bay Packers have the worst margin of victory against the spread in the league.
This could be another nationally televised embarrassment for the Packers. While the Eagles receivers have struggled, it's hard to imagine how the back end of the Packers secondary can keep up with anyone with NFL talent this season.
Philadelphia just might be the best 5-5 team in the league, and Green Bay is the public squad that is quickly falling off. Pull the trigger.
The pick: Philadelphia -3.5
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