The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 10
We had a hard week against the spread last week after four solid weeks, and it was only compounded by hitting a line on the dot twice, but there's hope moving forward. Last week was the chaos week for the NFL, which on the surface means that this would be the overreaction week from a point-spread perspective.
Based on the math from Football Outsiders' DVOA, FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating and the Massey Rating, there's a good case to be made around the idea of an overreaction week. There are also many good trends this week, which we were able to pull from TeamRankings.com.
As always, our odds come off of Odds Sharks' database, which accumulates lines from all over Vegas and the internet.
Record ATS total: 54-65-4
Record ATS last week: 3-7-2
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
1 of 15
The line: Baltimore -7
The result: Baltimore 28, Cleveland 7
The Cleveland Browns were up 7-6 at the half after a last-second Baltimore Ravens field goal, but the second half was totally dominated by the Ravens. Baltimore finished the game on a 25-0 run.
In the end, Cleveland threw for 111 yards between two quarterbacks, 166 yards fewer than the Ravens. They also rushed for just 33 yards, less than a third of Baltimore's 119-yard mark.
The Ravens held onto the ball for 17:12 more than the Browns did overall. This game wasn't close once it hit the half, and Cleveland finds itself with a 0-10 start, which even for the Browns is particularly bad.
Cleveland finishes the year with Pittsburgh twice, the Giants, Cincinnati, Buffalo and San Diego on their slate.
Cover: Baltimore
Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
2 of 15
Best home line: Philadelphia +2
Best away line: Atlanta +1
It's hard to come up with trends for the Philadelphia Eagles under quarterback Carson Wentz because there is such a limited sample size, but we can say a few things about this year's Eagles team. First, if you look at the coverage of them relative to the Atlanta Falcons, you wouldn't think that Philadelphia is just one loss behind the Falcons in 2016.
The truth is, with the NFC's top-tier teams slumping, people have elevated the Falcons to the point where there are conversations around the subject of them being the second-best team in the conference. We keep trying to find elite squads in the NFC, while if you honestly look at the conference you'll find that the non-Dallas Cowboys squads are fairly similar.
Still, the Falcons are favored by two points more than the Eagles from a power-ranking perspective here. That's an issue, as this year's Philadelphia team has been incredibly underrated at home.
According to TeamRankings.com, the team is undefeated at home against the spread by enormous margins. Their margin of victory at home is plus-20.3 points, with Pittsburgh coming in second with just a plus-11.0 mark.
They are also beating the spread by an average amount of plus-21 points. Pittsburgh is also in second place in that category with a plus-8.9 average.
The pick: Philadelphia +1
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
3 of 15
Best home line: Tampa Bay +2.5
Best away line: Chicago +1.5
The Chicago Bears have been road dogs of 7.5 points, 4 points, 5.5 points and 6.5 points this season. Now they're road favorites for the first time in head coach John Fox's stint in Chicago.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just aren't that poor of a football team. The last time we saw the Bears, they beat the Minnesota Vikings by double-digits on Monday Night Football, but they also have a 2-6 record against the spread this year, the third-worst mark in the league according to TeamRankings.com.
Don't be fooled here. FiveThirtyEight finds 4 points of value on this line, while Massey Rating finds 5.5 points of value on this line. Ride with the Jameis Winston Buccaneers.
The pick: Tampa Bay +2.5
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Minnesota vs. Washington
4 of 15
Best home line: Washington -1
Best away line: Minnesota +3
After a 5-0 start, the Minnesota Vikings have lost three-straight games in 2016. You can take that in one of two ways: Either the Vikings are quickly falling off as a contender in the NFL, or they've had a few bad weeks and are still the 5-0 team we saw to begin the year.
For the most part, this is the same team as the 2015 Vikings, which is why it's easy to align yourself with two-year trends around the squad. Sure, Sam Bradford is playing quarterback now, but how much of a difference is there between him and Teddy Bridgewater anyway?
In the last two years, according to TeamRankings.com, Minnesota is 9-1 against the spread as an underdog. That's a very significant trend. The Mike Zimmer era would suggest that you should never sleep on them.
At the same time, Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has one career victory over a team with a record over .500, this year's two-point win over the 5-3 New York Giants. A two-point win wouldn't cover this spread.
Skol.
The pick: Minnesota +3
Kansas City vs. Carolina
5 of 15
Best home line: Carolina -3
Best away line: Kansas City +3
While many are excited about the Carolina Panthers winning back-to-back games, we need to step back and realize how they won them. Sure, they beat the Arizona Cardinals when they were able to notch five sacks, an unsustainable rate, but they only beat the Los Angeles Rams by three points, a lesser team than the Kansas City Chiefs, who are three-point underdogs this week.
This year, the Panthers have been incredibly overrated by the public, who have yet to see that their pass defense has massively regressed, not just because of the loss of cornerback Josh Norman to free agency, but because their defensive line isn't replicating the same season they had during their Super Bowl run. Against the spread as favorites, Carolina is 2-5-1, per TeamRankings.com.
At the same time, the Chiefs are just one of six teams, along with with the Cardinals, Steelers, Packers, Seahawks and Patriots, to be underdogs just one time this whole season. This 3-5 Panthers team is the one that is getting respect over some of Kansas City's AFC West rivals, from the toughest division in football?
Football Outsiders' DVOA metric believes the Chiefs are a better team on a neutral field. FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating believes the Chiefs are a better team on a neutral field. Massey Ratings' ranking believes the Chiefs are a better team on a neutral field.
Carolina just shouldn't be a three-point favorite here.
The pick: Kansas City +3
Houston vs. Jacksonville
6 of 15
Best home line: Jacksonville +2
Best away line: Houston +2
Under head coach Gus Bradley, the Jacksonville Jaguars have had a horrible 14-42 record. Because of that, in four years, the Jaguars have only been favorites in just eight games over that time span.
They're pick'em candidates this week.
The Houston Texans haven't lost to the Jaguars under head coach Bill O'Brien while he's been the head coach of the franchise. His team has outscored the Jaguars 111-66 in his career with the team, a nearly 2-1 margin.
Don't miss the forest for the trees. Bet against the Jaguars as long as Bradley is their head coach and Blake Bortles is their quarterback. It's really been that simple over the last four years.
The pick: Houston +2
Green Bay vs. Tennessee
7 of 15
Best home line: Tennessee +3
Best away line: Green Bay -2.5
Since 2013, the Green Bay Packers are 11-6 against the spread as road favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. Since Aaron Rodgers took over as the team's starting quarterback, the Packers are 26-19 in that situation, a 57.8 win percentage, well over the 55 percent mark that professional gamblers hope to hit.
As long as this line is under the key number of three, there's a huge value on betting on Green Bay, if you believe they're going to win.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Packers are the seventh-best team in the league, while the Tennessee Titans are the 21st-ranked team in the NFL. According to FiveThirtyEight, Green Bay should be a 4.5-point favorite, while Massey Rating claims the team should be favored by 3.5 points.
By all means, that key number of three is a huge play here, especially after the Packers have lost three of their last four games. Trust the process of a team that has lost two straight games by a combined six points.
The pick: Green Bay -2.5
Los Angeles vs. New York Jets
8 of 15
Best home line: New York Jets PK
Best away line: Los Angeles +2.5
Right now, there are questions as to whether Ryan Fitzpatrick or Bryce Petty will start for the New York Jets this weekend, but you need to step back and ask yourself this question: How many points above replacement does Fitzpatrick really matter in 2016?
If the best quarterbacks in the league are worth just six points and there are very few non-quarterbacks who are worth just a one-point swing, then the idea of the Jets losing their "starting-caliber" passer shouldn't mean much. Don't adjust for this line much.
At the end of the day, the Jets are pick'em candidates at home, which is problematic for the Los Angeles Rams, who are just 1-3 against the spread as road favorites in the last two seasons according to TeamRankings.com. First, they have a poor record against the spread in these situations. Second, they don't get these situations often.
The Jeff Fisher Rams are currently on a 10-17-1 streak on the road against the spread. Their team doesn't translate much on the road, which is especially concerning when they have the fewest points scored in the league at home this year.
The Rams have scored 15 fewer points than the Jets at home, the second-worst in terms of raw numbers, and that's despite the fact that they've played one more home game than New York. And they don't see a positive bump on the road in terms of spread projections.
Bite the bullet on this game and ride with the Jets.
The pick: New York Jets PK
Denver vs. New Orleans
9 of 15
Best home line: New Orleans -1
Best away line: Denver +2.5
A few weeks ago, the Denver Broncos pass defense was considered as good as the one that won the Super Bowl last season, and Trevor Siemian was considered an upgrade over their 2015 season's quarterback situation. After Denver lost on national television to the Oakland Raiders, a worse version of the New Orleans Saints, the Broncos have diminished in the minds of the public.
That's incredibly wrong. This is still the same Denver team, plus they've succeeded in nearly every game they've been doubted in under head coach Gary Kubiak.
As underdogs under Kubiak, the Broncos are 8-1 against the spread according to TeamRankings.com. If they zig, you zag. Vegas knows.
The pick: Denver +2.5
Miami vs. San Diego
10 of 15
Best home line: San Diego -3.5
Best away line: Miami +4
The Miami Dolphins have scored the second-fewest on the road this season league-wide. The San Diego Chargers have scored the most points at home this season league-wide.
3.5 points just isn't enough. Period.
The pick: San Diego -3.5
San Francisco vs. Arizona
11 of 15
Best home line: Arizona -13
Best away line: San Francisco +15
A below .500 team is a three-touchdown favorite in Week 10 in the NFL. That's all you need to know here.
They don't build casinos because they lose on more bets than they win. They know everyone will be on the Cardinals here, and this line reflects that.
It's hard to put money on a Chip Kelly team that has lost seven-straight games, but there are few matchups in the league that should be two-score differences if you're looking strictly at power rankings, let alone three-score differences.
The pick: San Francisco +15
Dallas vs. Pittsburgh
12 of 15
Best home line: Pittsburgh -1
Best away line: Dallas +2.5
For years, the rule has been go with the underdog in games featuring the Dallas Cowboys. Outside of 2015, when Tony Romo missed most of the season and incompetent quarterbacks started in his place at quarterback, the Cowboys are 14-3 against the spread as underdogs since 2013, according to TeamRankings.com.
This one is very simple. You ride with a trend this well-documented.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger misses few games due to injury, but we might have to start to question why he's able to return so fast to the lineup. Often, it looks like he's rushing the recovery process.
This isn't a fully healthy Roethlisberger. This isn't a game that should be a 2.5-point line.
Dallas has won seven-straight games against the spread. This very well might make it eight.
The pick: Dallas +2.5
Seattle vs. New England
13 of 15
Best home line: New England -7.5
Best away line: Seattle +9
We're at the point where the New England Patriots are being respected too much. At some point, we're going to reach a number where you can't just blindly bet on the Patriots.
No team in the history of this league has been able to survive an entire season with their starting quarterback beating the spread every week. This very well could be where the buck stops.
There are two major reasons why you should be leaning on a Seattle Seahawks cover here.
First, this number is over a touchdown. In the last 35 regular season games, the Seahawks have lost just one game, in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers in 2015, by more than a touchdown.
Second, Seattle has proven again and again to never doubt them. Since drafting quarterback Russell Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks are 12-4-1 against the spread as underdogs according to TeamRankings.com.
No team can consistently cover multi-score spreads. It just hasn't been seen before.
The pick: Seattle +9
Cincinnati vs. New York Giants
14 of 15
Best home line: New York Giants +1
Best away line: Cincinnati PK
For the most part, the Cincinnati Bengals are living off the team they had last season. The Bengals only have three wins against the spread this season according to TeamRankings.com.
Only four teams, the Carolina Panthers, who have massively regressed, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns, who might be the three worst teams in the NFL, have fewer wins against the spread this year. On the flip side, since 2012, the New York Giants have only had one season fall below .500 against the spread as the home team.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Giants are better than the Bengals. According to the Massey Rating, the Giants are better than the Bengals. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Giants should be favored by more than their spread suggests, even if they rank slightly behind the Bengals in a neutral-site matchup.
New York has two more wins than Cincinnati this year, too. All signs point to the Giants here, no matter what you think about last year's team.
The pick: New York Giants +1
Locks of the Week
15 of 15
1) San Francisco +15 vs. Arizona
2) Seattle +8.5 vs. New England
3) Dallas +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh
4) Denver +2.5 vs. New Orleans
5) Minnesota +3 vs. Washington
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