The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 9
After three straight winning weeks against the spread, we finished one game under .500 in our Week 8 action. Relatively, though, we did fine compared to the books, which according to ESPN Radio's RJ Bell, based on CG Technology's numbers, had the worst week in two NFL seasons this past week.
In our last four weeks, we've finished with a winning record against the spread or above the threshold of the sportsbooks. Knowing that, I like our chances moving forward.
Viewing the math from FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics and the Massey Ratings, we can figure out how a team should be valued from a power-ranking standpoint, and by using TeamRanking.com's historical database, we can find trends that some may not be aware of. Finding an edge, one way or another, is incredibly important.
Juxtaposing that against Odds Sharks' aggregation of over a dozen lines, we can tell you which teams are undervalued and what the best lines available are. With 12 games left to play this week, there are plenty of opportunities to test both books and the public.
Record ATS total: 51-58-2
Record ATS last week: 5-7
Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
1 of 14
The line: Tampa Bay +3
The result: Atlanta 43, Tampa Bay 28
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drew first blood with a Jameis Winston touchdown pass to Mike Evans, and they held a one-point lead with four minutes left in the first half, but Atlanta scored 27-straight points to seal a victory against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.
Midway through the fourth quarter, the Falcons were up 40-14, good enough to put away the game, but Tampa outscored Atlanta 14-3 to make head coach Dan Quinn's margin of victory smaller in garbage time.
If you look at the statistics, Atlanta didn't blow Tampa Bay out in any individual category. They had 65 more offensive yards, one fewer turnover and held the ball for about seven more minutes, nothing that is individually damning.
All of that, including 51 fewer penalty yards, added up in the end, though. The Falcons covered this in-division road game by double digits, all while stepping off the gas.
Cover: Atlanta
Detroit vs. Minnesota
2 of 14
Best home line: Minnesota -5.5
Best away line: Detroit +7
The Minnesota Vikings lost a road game on national television this past week on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. Because they did it at the tone of a 20-10 score, many are jumping off the Vikings bandwagon after just one result.
The truth of the matter is, over the last two years, Minnesota is 10-2 against the spread at home. Football Outsiders lists the Vikings as the eighth-best team in the league according to their DVOA metric, while the Lions sit 24th in the rankings.
The point spread looks right, and if you can find it under the key number of six, you should be in good shape. Under the same coaching staffs, the Vikings won by 10 and nine points against the Lions last season.
The pick: Minnesota -5.5
Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
3 of 14
Best home line: Kansas City -7.5
Best away line: Jacksonville +8
If you blindly bet against the Jacksonville Jaguars over the last three years, you would have a 21-16-2 record against the spread according to TeamRankings.com. That's a 56 percent win percentage. Professional bettors aim around the 55 percent range for a season.
How is it possible that the Jaguars have become the "you can't go broke taking a profit" team in terms of fades? Well, to start off, they've only won two road games in regulation over that time, a game against Baltimore last year that featured a game-extending penalty with zeros on the clock and against the Bears this season.
They just don't win road games. Period. That means your best hope is to root for a cover since there's no chance of victory in this game. Again, this is how Vegas has been able to steal your money for the last three years under head coach Gus Bradley and Blake Bortles.
At the same time, Nick Foles flashed last week in a way that may lead him to taking over the Chiefs' starting quarterback job full-time. If he has another great performance, watch him steal Alex Smith's gig in Kansas City. With a motivated Foles, don't expect this team to take their foot off the gas.
The pick: Kansas City -7.5
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Dallas vs. Cleveland
4 of 14
Best home line: Cleveland +8
Best away line: Dallas -7
Here is what these two teams look like juxtaposed in this week's DVOA rankings, according to Football Outsiders:
| Team | Overall | Off. | Def. |
| Dallas | 2nd | 2nd | 14th |
| Cleveland | 32nd | 25th | 30th |
This is one of the better teams in the NFL going against the worst team in the NFL, and this line is still a one-score game. On top of that, the Cleveland Browns only have a 2-6 record against the spread this year, despite the fact that they've been massive underdogs in just about every game they've played.
Based on average margin of victory, the Browns are the second-worst team in the NFL. They are quietly competitive for three quarters, which makes you feel good about their future as a young team, but in the fourth quarter, it typically unravels for those who bet on their side of the point spread.
According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating, the Dallas Cowboys should be 8.5-point favorites in this game. Per Massey Ratings, Dallas should be a 10.5-point favorite. As long as you can get this number at an even seven, you should be in good shape.
The pick: Dallas -7
New York Jets vs. Miami
5 of 14
Best home line: Miami -3.5
Best away line: New York Jets +4
In the NFL, you typically think of a home swing being worth three points added on top of a power ranking, but that isn't always the case. There are certain teams who over and over again prove to us that there is little to no home-field advantage in their stadiums.
A noted city for half-interested fans is Miami, whose college Hurricanes have an attendance problem in college football and whose Heat in the NBA, even when LeBron James led the squad, had fans walking in during the second quarter of games. The Dolphins are no different.
Since quarterback Ryan Tannehill was drafted in the first round of the 2012 draft, the Dolphins are just 7-14 against the spread as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. That number has only been amplified over the last two years when Miami's posted a 3-9 record against the spread in those circumstances.
For the most part, when you bet on the Dolphins at home, you're losing value because books are giving them a full three points for their home-field advantage. By betting against them, at least in this era of Miami football, you're making money.
This line is over the key number of three, which should be your target point.
The pick: New York Jets +4
Philadelphia vs. New York Giants
6 of 14
Best home line: New York Giants -1
Best away line: Philadelphia +3
Both the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants have a 4-3 record, but based on just about every statistic possible, the Eagles are a better football team. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, they are the best team in the NFL, but their fourth quarter loss to the Dallas Cowboys, who are second in the rankings, will persuade the public to bet against them.
According to the Massey Ratings, the Eagles should be 2.5-point road favorites, not 3-point road dogs. That's a 5.5-point line swing and massive value. Per FiveThirtyEight's numbers, Philadelphia should at least be pick'em candidates, a three-point line difference compared to the live lines.
You have to go back to 2008 for the last time that the New York Giants finished with a record above .500 against the spread at home per TeamRankings.com. Them being overrated at home is nothing new. Exploit that.
The pick: Philadelphia +3
Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
7 of 14
Best home line: Baltimore PK
Best away line: Pittsburgh +3
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been battling with a meniscus issue in recent weeks, but as we know, he doesn't stay off the field long. At this point, Big Ben is expected to suit up for the Steelers on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.
Despite that fact being floated out in public, there are still some lines that have Pittsburgh as three-point dogs visiting Baltimore. According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating, Football Outsiders' DVOA metric and the Massey Rating, the Steelers are the better team in this match straight up and are values from a point spread perspective.
Since 2013, as underdogs, Pittsburgh is 12-8-2 against the spread according to TeamRankings.com. That's near a 60 percent success rate with a sample size of over 20 games. As favorites, Baltimore is 2-9-2 against the spread over the last two years. Layup.
The pick: Pittsburgh +3
Carolina vs. Los Angeles
8 of 14
Best home line: Los Angeles +3
Best away line: Carolina -3
Making the Carolina Panthers three-point favorites after one major win against the Arizona Cardinals is very close to overreaction, but Carolina did show massive improvement coming out of the bye week. In the NFL, you either need a pass rush or defensive backs who can hold up, and the Panthers started the season with neither.
Heading into last weekend, the Panthers' starting defensive line of Kony Ealy, Charles Johnson, Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei had 2.5 sacks over six games. After the bye week, Carolina's starting line posted five sacks in a single game against the Cardinals.
On a per-game basis, that's a jump of 1,200 percent in sack production. Now, it's a one-game sample, but that is too glaring of a number to overlook. Carolina runs and passes the ball better than the Los Angeles Rams, and they have a better defense if that line can look half as talented as they did in last week's game.
At home this year, the Rams have scored just 38 points, both the worst mark in the NFL overall and on a per-game basis.
The pick: Carolina -3
New Orleans vs. San Francisco
9 of 14
Best home line: San Francisco +4.5
Best away line: New Orleans -4
Since 2013, the New Orleans Saints are 2-9 against the spread as road favorites, and the Saints are road favorites for just the second time in the last two years. New Orleans would be 10.5-point favorites if this game were at home, assuming a three-point home-field advantage both ways, and the Saints have won by double digits just twice in their last 25 games.
Everyone and their mother will tell you to take the Saints here, but Vegas doesn't build casinos because they're handing out free money. Every New Orleans game comes down to the last possession, and if a four-point Saints win gives you a cover for a home dog, it'd be smart to take the San Francisco 49ers, who have covered the majority of their spreads as home underdogs post-Jim Harbaugh according to TeamRankings.com.
This might be one of the hardest games to pick this week, but that hook on a four-point line matters. Vegas knows.
The pick: San Francisco +4.5
Tennessee vs. San Diego
10 of 14
Best home line: San Diego -4
Best away line: Tennessee +5
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, FiveThirtyEight's Elo ranking and the Massey Ratings, the San Diego Chargers should be valued better on a neutral field than the Tennessee Titans. At the least, this line should be four points.
This year, the Chargers have one loss at home, a one-point game, but have won by over a touchdown in their other home matches. On top of that, the Titans are 4-7 against the spread on the road since drafting Marcus Mariota in the 2015 offseason, according to TeamRankings.com.
As long as this number is in the 4-point to 5.5-point range, there seems to be value in San Diego.
The pick: San Diego -4
Indianapolis vs. Green Bay
11 of 14
Best home line: Green Bay -7
Best away line: Indianapolis +8
Outside of the 9-7 Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts haven't beaten a team with an over .500 record on the road since the 2013 regular season. The question to this game isn't if they're going to win, but how many scores they're going to lose by.
If you reverse engineer this line, the Packers would be one-point favorites on the road in Indianapolis, assuming they are only awarded a three-point home-field advantage, which seems about right.
In his career, Andrew Luck has thrown seven fewer touchdowns and 10 more interceptions on the road than at home. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 24 more touchdowns and 11 fewer interceptions at home than on the road in his career.
This is problematic for the Colts, who have to win with the passing game. The Packers have the 16th-best pass defense in the league according to Football Outsiders' DVOA, while Indianapolis has the fifth-worst pass defense in the NFL.
If seven points is a push, you should feel better about Green Bay covering the game. Since 2013, the Colts are 19-21 straight up in non-divisional games, while they're 17-4 against the AFC South. That's a significant split.
The pick: Green Bay -7
Denver vs. Oakland
12 of 14
Best home line: Oakland PK
Best away line: Denver +1.5
Under head coach Gary Kubiak, the Denver Broncos are 8-0 against the spread as underdogs according to TeamRankings.com. Under head coach Jack Del Rio, the Oakland Raiders are 2-6 against the spread as favorites.
Despite the fact that the Raiders have a 6-2 record, the second-best mark in the AFC, they are winning almost exclusively in one-score games, at an unsustainable rate at that. The Raiders only have a plus-12 point differential for the season, a lower mark than the 3-5 San Diego Chargers and the 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals.
On the other hand, the Broncos have a plus-58 point differential, the third-best mark in the league behind the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. All signs point to the Broncos being undervalued and the Raiders being overvalued in this situation.
The pick: Denver +1.5
Buffalo vs. Seattle
13 of 14
Best home line: Seattle -6.5
Best away line: Buffalo +7.5
The Buffalo Bills are a 4-4 team that isn't playing close to a 4-4 trajectory. Even though they've lost four games, the majority of those games have been one-score games, and they have a plus-40 point differential, the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
Teams with a better point differential than the Bills have a combined record of 23-7. They also have a 3-0 record in non-conference play.
The Seattle Seahawks, even though they have a 4-2-1 record, have just a plus-20 point differential. Only one two-loss team, the Oakland Raiders, has a worse point differential than the Seahawks.
The only team that the Bills have lost to by more than a touchdown are the New England Patriots, a showdown which occurred just last week.
Running back LeSean McCoy also returned to practice this week. With McCoy, Buffalo has a 4-2 record and a plus-59 point differential, which would be the third-best mark in the NFL.
The Seahawks haven't won by more than two points in over a month. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson hasn't scored a touchdown in a month.
This is the tale of one team with an arrow pointing up, with a .500 record, and one team with an arrow pointing down, with a superior record. A touchdown gives you a Bills cover. Take it.
The pick: Buffalo +7.5
Locks of the Week
14 of 14
1) Pittsburgh +3 vs. Baltimore
2) Detroit vs. Minnesota -5.5
3) Philadelphia +3 vs. New York Giants
4) Denver +1.5 vs. Oakland
5) Buffalo +7.5 vs. Seattle
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