The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 6
After four long weeks of gradual improvement, we finally had more wins against the spread than losses as the NFL has started to make sense from a handicapping perspective. Now that we're judging teams leaguewide with more than just a couple of data points, it's becoming easier to feel certain about their power rankings, which is the decoder ring to figuring out gambling value.
Join us as we pick every NFL game this week. As always, our point spreads are brought to you by Odds Shark.
Record ATS total: 31-39-1
Record ATS last week: 6-5-1
Denver vs. San Diego
1 of 16
Line: Denver -3
Result: San Diego 21, Denver 13
After head coach Mike McCoy nearly had a heart attack on the sideline in the fourth quarter, the San Diego Chargers were able to hold onto a fourth-quarter lead. It felt like they escaped with a home win over the division-rival Denver Broncos, but McCoy saved his job, for at least a week, as the Chargers improved to 2-4.
The win was not only a straight-up victory for San Diego, but a cover, as it was the home underdog heading into this game. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis was Denver's interim head coach as Gary Kubiak missed the game with a migraine issue, but the Broncos' 3-2 record may be enough to sit atop the AFC West on Sunday, depending on the result of the Kansas City-Oakland game.
Overall, the Broncos looked respectable, ending the game on a potential game-tying Hail Mary, while the Chargers showed signs of life this week.
Cover: San Diego
Cincinnati vs. New England
2 of 16
Opening line: New England -8
Best home line: New England -8.5
Best away line: Cincinnati +10
If you're betting on this game, you need to start by having a very real conservation over just how valuable Tom Brady is from a point-spread perspective. Sure, the New England Patriots beat the Cleveland Browns 33-13 last week, but they were just coming off a 16-0 shutout loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Everyone is excited about the potential of Brady running up the score on teams now that he's back on the field, but assuming that he's going to win by double digits every week is an unsustainable expectation to set out for him. Last year, the Patriots won six games by multiple scores, but they were to four non-playoff teams with a combined record of 18-46 and two playoff teams who made it to the postseason with a pair of 9-7 records and were both blown out by a combined score of 65-18 in the Wild Card Round.
Monkey see, monkey do. The Bengals lost last week by multiple scores, and the Patriots won last week by multiple scores, so this line must be right, right? Wrong. According to this line, there is no bigger talent gap in the league this week than Cincinnati-New England.
This is the same Cincinnati team that is 4-1 against the spread as a road dog since the start of the 2015 season, according to TeamRankings.com. This is the same Cincinnati team whose starting quarterback, Andy Dalton, didn't lose by more than a single score all season last year.
In Week 3, A.J. Green caught 10 passes for 173 receiving yards against the Miami Dolphins. Last week, he had only four receptions for 50 yards in a loss against the Dallas Cowboys.
Results change on a week-to-week basis in the NFL for various reasons, but a starting point, like a point spread, needs to have a consistent middle. This line is the tail end of the snake, chasing results instead of being forward thinking enough to believe that a 12-4 team from last season can keep a margin of defeat within 10 points.
The pick: Cincinnati +10
Pittsburgh vs. Miami
3 of 16
Opening line: Miami +6.5
Best home line: Miami +9
Best away line: Pittsburgh -7.5
It's hard to cover as a road favorite in the NFL. This league is too competitive to not account for that six-point home-field swing.
Over the past two years, the Pittsburgh Steelers are just 5-5 on the road straight up, and they're 2-2-1 against the spread as road favorites, per TeamRankings.com. They did beat the Washington Redskins by more than 10 points on the road this season, but their only double-digit wins last season on the road came against starts from AJ McCarron and Austin Davis.
Last week was the first Sunday double-digit loss of Adam Gase's head coaching career. With a nine-point line, the public might just be overreacting a bit early on the Miami Dolphins.
Of the one-loss teams in the NFL, the Steelers and New England Patriots are the only squads in the league who don't have a top-10 defense or running game, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Sustained success takes more than just a quarterback in this league.
At the end of the day, considering the situation both of these teams are in, this line is just too high. The reflection of this line is Pittsburgh being 15-point favorites at home, which again is just too much for any NFL team to be favored by.
The pick: Miami +9
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Cleveland vs. Tennessee
4 of 16
Opening line: Tennessee -5.5
Best home line: Tennessee -6.5
Best away line: Cleveland +8.5
Cleveland Browns quarterbacks Cody Kessler, a rookie, and Josh McCown, a journeyman, are battling health to get ready to start against the Tennessee Titans this week, but if you take anything from the team's recent release of Charlie Whitehurst, it's they expect one of those two to be ready to play.
Under both Kessler and McCown, the Browns have looked respectable. They are still 0-5, but they are more of a respectable 0-5 than the San Francisco 49ers are a respectable 1-4.
On the other hand, the Tennessee Titans, who have struggled with a 5-16 record since drafting quarterback Marcus Mariota, won big last week with a 30-17 stomping of the Miami Dolphins, who Cleveland would have beaten in Miami if it had a functional kicker.
Last year, the Titans had a big win in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they failed to win another game by more than a field goal until last week. Now they're favored by 8.5 points, according to some books.
Per TeamRankings.com, Tennessee is 2-7-1 against the spread over the last two years as the home team. You cannot trust the Titans, let alone to win a game by multiple scores.
The pick: Cleveland +8.5
Los Angeles vs. Detroit
5 of 16
Opening line: Detroit -2.5
Best home line: Detroit -3
Best away line: Los Angeles +3.5
The Los Angeles Rams are horrible on offense, but the Detroit Lions are horrible on defense. When the Lions have the ball, the best unit on the field is the Rams' defense.
Los Angeles might have the advantage when it does and doesn't have the ball in its own hands. Why on Earth are the Lions more than three-point favorites here?
They've won a total of one game this season by more than three points, while the Rams have done that three times. From a power-ranking (and logic) perspective, this line makes no sense other than that it's a reaction to the public betting on the Lions, who just won, over the Rams, who just lost.
Don't chase the tail end of the snake.
The pick: Los Angeles +3.5
Jacksonville vs. Chicago
6 of 16
Opening line: Chicago -1.5
Best home line: Chicago -2.5
Best away line: Jacksonville +3
As a visiting starter, quarterback Blake Bortles has a 1-14 record with the Jacksonville Jaguars. His one road win was against the Baltimore Ravens in a two-point game in which the Ravens gave Jacksonville a shot at a field goal after a facemask penalty.
The Jaguars haven't had a winning record against the spread on the road since 2012, predating Bortles by years. Betting against them on the road has been automatic for a while, but it has only been easier with Bortles at the helm.
No one in the league should be less than three-point favorites at home against Jacksonville, other than the San Francisco 49ers.
Side note: I don't know what's a more interesting question. Why do Jay Cutler's backups always outperform him, or when do we admit that the Houston Texans downgraded at quarterback this offseason?
The pick: Chicago -2.5
San Francisco vs. Buffalo
7 of 16
Opening line: Buffalo -7
Best home line: Buffalo -7.5
Best away line: San Francisco +10.5
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Buffalo Bills, at 3-2, are quietly the eighth-best team in the NFL right now. No other team with two or more losses is in the top 10, making that deceiving "3-2" in the record column more of a mirage than anything else.
The San Francisco 49ers, who will be making the road trip to the East Coast for a Sunday game, are the 26th team in DVOA after the numbers are adjusted for last week's results. Clearly, the Bills are the better team, so they should be favored by more than three points at home, but the question is by how many points?
According to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, the Bills have an 81 percent chance to win this game, making this their third most confident projection of the season. Two games this season had a 82 percent projection, the Seattle Seahawks' win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 and Houston Texans' win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 6.
On top of that, Buffalo has a projected point spread of a 10-point favorite, according to the site, 2.5 points better than any other team in the league this week. Per the Massey Ratings, the Bills are projected to be 10.5-point favorites.
That's a three-point value for a home favorite relative to the number in some books right now. You don't get a shot at that every week.
Buffalo is one Mike Wallace reception in man coverage on third down from 4-1. It is also five days from 5-0, as its two stumbles this season came out of the gate.
On the other side, the 49ers have a point differential of negative 57 since opening with a win on Monday Night Football. That mark would rank them second-worst in the league after the Cleveland Browns.
San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick doesn't handle blitzes well. The Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets play a very similar style of defense, which involves a lot of blitzes and man coverage.
Last season, against the Cardinals, Kaepernick had a higher passer rating throwing to Arizona defensive backs than he did his own teammates. Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan should be expected to throw plenty of blitzes Kaepernick's way, as Lorenzo Alexander, an off-the-ball linebacker, leads the NFL in sacks.
The only way you can take advantage of pressure-heavy man coverage is by getting receivers to separate quickly, and the 49ers may have the least amount of receiver talent of any team in the league. This just might be the lock of the year.
The pick: Buffalo -7.5
Carolina vs. New Orleans
8 of 16
Opening line: New Orleans +3
Best home line: New Orleans +3
Best away line: Carolina -2.5
The New Orleans Saints don't often find themselves as home dogs. Here's a breakdown of their history as home underdogs under quarterback Drew Brees:
| Year | Wins ATS | Losses ATS |
| 2006 | 2 | 1 |
| 2008 | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | 2 | 0 |
In total, according to TeamRankings.com, in the 86 home games, including the playoffs, since Brees was signed to be the face of the franchise, the Saints have only been underdogs at home eight times, less than 10 percent of all games in the Superdome during the 2006-16 stretch.
It's apparent that the Saints can't play any defense this season, but other than their game against the Atlanta Falcons, who the Carolina Panthers also lost to by more than two touchdowns, the team hasn't lost by more than three points all season. Why on Earth would the Panthers, who were only able to score 14 points against a bad Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, be able to take advantage of New Orleans' weakness?
This is a divisional game between two one-win teams, the road team is a favorite, the road team is coming off a short week after Monday Night Football and the home team is coming off of a bye week. If this game were in Carolina, would the Panthers really be favored by nine points, taking into account just a six-point swing for home-field advantage?
How many points is Cam Newton worth? This line has adjusted too much due to the starting quarterback. The Buccaneers shouldn't be favored in New Orleans, and based on last week's Carolina-Tampa Bay line, they would be.
The pick: New Orleans +3
Baltimore vs. New York Giants
9 of 16
Opening line: New York Giants -3
Best home line: New York Giants -2.5
Best away line: Baltimore +3.5
Per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Baltimore Ravens are better than the New York Giants as an overall team. Per FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating, the same statement is made.
With lines of three points still out there, the Giants are being considered a team up to the Ravens' talent level on a neutral field. According to TeamRankings.com, over the last two years New York is 2-5 against the spread as home favorites.
The Ravens may be coming out hot after they fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. We saw that spark in Buffalo after it fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman earlier this season.
This line may have been the toughest game to pick this week, but if you're going to pick a side, you probably want to roll with the motivated road team, which from a power-ranking standpoint is being undervalued, against a team that hasn't done great under its coach-quarterback combo at home.
The pick: Baltimore +3.5
Phildelphia vs. Washington
10 of 16
Opening line: Washington -1.5
Best home line: Washington +3
Best away line: Philadelphia -1
Here are the teams Kirk Cousins beat as a starter in 2015:
| Team | Win | Loss | WAS | Opp. |
| St. Louis | 7 | 9 | 24 | 10 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 9 | 23 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 10 | 31 | 30 |
| New Orleans | 7 | 9 | 47 | 14 |
| N.Y. Giants | 6 | 10 | 20 | 14 |
| Chicago | 6 | 10 | 24 | 21 |
| Buffalo | 8 | 8 | 35 | 25 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 9 | 38 | 24 |
| Dallas | 4 | 12 | 34 | 23 |
Here are the teams Cousins has beaten in 2016:
| Team | Win | Loss | WAS | Opp. |
| N.Y. Giants | 2 | 3 | 29 | 27 |
| Cleveland | 0 | 5 | 31 | 20 |
| Baltimore | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 |
The Baltimore Ravens own the wild-card tiebreaker as it stands right now for the sixth seed in the AFC, as they won head-to-head against the Buffalo Bills, but other than them Cousins has yet to beat a single playoff team in his entire NFL career.
In a virtual pick'em, this game is going to come down to who you think wins this game straight up. Below is Cousins-led teams' results against teams who made the playoffs in 2015 and squads that are projected to be playoff teams in 2016 if the season ended today without going down to a tiebreaker:
| Year | Team | Win | Loss | WAS | Opp. |
| 2015 | New England | 12 | 4 | 10 | 27 |
| 2015 | Carolina | 15 | 1 | 16 | 44 |
| 2015 | Green Bay (playoffs) | 10 | 6 | 18 | 35 |
| 2016 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 1 | 16 | 38 |
| 2016 | Dallas | 4 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
Against playoff teams and teams with an early, clear leg to be playoff teams, Cousins' offenses have been outscored 171-72 over five games with point differentials of four, 17, 17, 22 and 28. If you don't think the Eagles will have a catastrophic meltdown and miss the playoffs, it's going to be hard to rationalize putting money on Washington considering this strong trend.
The pick: Philadelphia -1
Kansas City vs. Oakland
11 of 16
Opening line: Oakland -1.5
Best home line: Oakland +2
Best away line: Kansas City -1
The last time that we saw the Kansas City Chiefs, they were getting ran off Sunday Night Football by the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who was once the Chiefs head coach. Since then, though, Kansas City has had a bye.
Sure, they lost 43-14 the last time we saw them, but the Chiefs' run from the second half of Week 1 through Week 3 was as impressive as anyone's leaguewide. Not only that, but head coach Andy Reid is 15-2 straight up after bye weeks.
You may not believe in coaching, many don't, but for whatever reason Reid seems to work some sort of magic on his team with extended rest. Kansas City, a 2-2 team, opened up as the underdog to the Oakland Raiders, a 4-1 team, and that line has dropped down to a pick'em for some books.
At some point, you have to begin to question why certain lines move the way they do. Why are sharps and/or money on a divisional road team with two fewer wins than everyone's favorite West Coast team after just five weeks of play?
Reid will have this team ready. Don't take the bait.
The pick: Kansas City -1
Atlanta vs. Seattle
12 of 16
Opening line: Seattle -7
Best home line: Seattle -6
Best away line: Atlanta +7
Every line needs to make sense from a power-ranking standpoint. Right now, this line is telling you that the Seattle Seahawks are at least four points better than the Atlanta Falcons, who are 4-1 this season and may have the best offense in the NFL.
This line also assumed the Seahawks are going to win by a full touchdown, despite the fact that their offense has sputtered at times this season. Their liability on that side of the ball is their offensive line, and second-year first-round pick Vic Beasley just recorded 3.5 sacks against the Denver Broncos last week.
On top of that, there is going to be "hurricane-force winds" around the Seattle area all weekend. If anything, playing through a storm should make a game closer in terms of points scores, not separate these teams by more than their power-ranking value.
The Falcons are 3-0 as road underdogs this year, according to TeamRankings.com. No matter what they do, the public just seems to ask, "Yeah, but are we sure that they're for real?" With a line this wide, this is a perfect opportunity to jump on the bandwagon.
The pick: Atlanta +7
Dallas vs. Green Bay
13 of 16
Opening line: Green Bay -4.5
Best home line: Green Bay -3.5
Best away line: Dallas +4.5
With a win last week, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers now has the best winning percentage of any quarterback in prime-time games since the merger other than Ben Roethlisberger. For whatever reason, Rodgers does well on a big stage.
Fighting for a wild-card spot currently, there is no bigger stage for the Packers than going toe-to-toe with a one-loss Dallas Cowboys team, prime time or not. With two "public" teams going head-to-head, there isn't a clear side that is inflated in this game, which isn't something you can say about most Green Bay lines.
Appreciate this line, because you typically don't get the Packers at power-ranking value in the regular season.
The Cowboys largely have built their success around the running game, and according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Packers have the second-best run defense in the league entering Week 6. On top of that, without Dez Bryant, Green Bay will be facing the weakest receiving unit it has all season after seeing stars in Jacksonville's Allen Robinson, Minnesota's Stefon Diggs and New York's Odell Beckham Jr. earlier this season.
The Packers should have the edge running the ball, throwing the ball and stopping the pass, while stopping the run is a push. They are notoriously bad for allowing a backdoor cover, but as long as this line is under six points, it's hard to come up with a situation in which they step off the gas and come out with a win on Sunday.
The pick: Green Bay -3.5
Indianapolis vs. Houston
14 of 16
Opening line: Houston -3
Best home line: Houston -3
Best away line: Indianapolis +3.5
The Indianapolis Colts have absolutely no identity. Their best hope is to stick around just long enough in games to throw a touchdown to T.Y. Hilton the last time they touch the ball.
On defense, they have absolutely no identity at all. The Houston Texans, if not talented or efficient, at least have two receivers who you have to account for entering a game.
This game is odd. Books are saying that the two teams are no different on a neutral field. It's also a game between divisional rivals.
In the end, though, it's hard to sell anyone on the Colts being more talented at any individual position than the Texans, outside of quarterback, right now. Quarterbacks mean a lot in the league.
The pick: Houston -3
New York Jets vs. Arizona
15 of 16
Opening line: Arizona -6.5
Best home line: Arizona -7.5
Best away line: New York Jets +9
What point is too much? With quarterback Carson Palmer back in the lineup, as he practiced this week after missing some time due to the league's concussion protocol, the Arizona Cardinals should be favored to beat the New York Jets at home.
With that being said, you don't just blindly bet on them because they are the better team and have a home-field advantage. At some point, the points do in fact matter, and that's why Las Vegas continues to build and grow while gamblers leave the city with lighter pockets.
While Palmer, no doubt, is an upgrade over Drew Stanton, since he injured his finger against the Philadelphia Eagles last season, he's thrown just 13 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Before that, he had thrown 32 passing touchdowns and just nine interceptions.
The Palmer you have grown to expect is a mirage. Who he is now is a shell of himself.
Maybe his finger has never fully healed. Maybe he has lost confidence in his own ability or his team's ability to keep him off the training table since then and that's impacting his play. Whatever it is, the reality is that Palmer isn't the same anymore, and the Cardinals aren't the same without Palmer.
Healthy Palmer last season was 12-2. He's now on a 3-5 stretch since then. This line would suggest that the Cardinals would be about a field-goal favorite in New York against this same Jets team.
If anyone knows how to go after Palmer, too, it's Todd Bowles, the Jets' head coach who is a former Arizona defensive coordinator under the same administration still in Glendale.
The pick: New York Jets +9
Locks of the Week
16 of 16
1. Cincinnati +10 vs. New England
2. Cleveland +8.5 vs. Tennessee
3. Jacksonville vs. Chicago -2.5
4. San Francisco vs. Buffalo -7.5
5. Kansas City -1 vs. Oakland
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