Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson Breakdown
Michael Bisping will attempt to defend his middleweight title for the first time when he takes on old foe Dan Henderson this October 8 at UFC 204.
The bout is a rematch of their 2009 clash, which took place at UFC 100, and famously ended with Henderson scoring a crushing knockout blow that he followed up with an academic punch to his unconscious opponent.
Beyond the high-stakes characteristic of any title match, this bout also affords the champion a chance to get even. Bisping has been vocal about avenging his defeat to Henderson, and he has been salivating in the lead-up to the bout.
For Henderson, the contest represents what will probably be his last chance to capture UFC gold. The former Olympian has collected many accolades through his mixed martial arts career, but he has never been able to attain a UFC championship—the most prestigious honor the sport has to offer.
In anticipation of the UFC 204 main event, Bleacher Report investigates Bisping vs. Henderson II, examining where each fighter holds an edge and how the bout is likely to conclude.
Striking
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It's tough not to give Henderson the edge without a second thought here. His 2009 knockout of Bisping rates as one of the most iconic finishes in the history of mixed martial arts, and he concluded what was essentially a kickboxing match from beginning to end.
But that was over seven years ago. A lot has changed since then.
Henderson will enter Saturday's bout at 46 years old. He's taken a ton of damage since the first fight and has had difficulty finding the win column over his past nine outings. But Henderson is not some decrepit old man. He still wields brutalizing power that remains a threat to Bisping.
Bisping is the quicker, more agile fighter. His attempt to exploit this edge failed miserably in 2009, but the gap has only grown since then, and he now pairs his advantage with greater experience.
While not an accurate striker, the Brit's volume allows him to tally connections nearly twice as regularly as Henderson, while also avoiding incoming strikes at a much better rate, according to Fightmetric. And though he lacks the one-punch knockout power of his opponent, Bisping has shown the capacity to put away top competition.
At this point in each fighter's career, either can turn the other's lights out. When it comes to speed and volume, the edge clearly shifts to Bisping.
Edge: Bisping
Grappling
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Last time Henderson and Bisping squared off, Bisping attempted one failed takedown. Henderson attempted zero.
It's fair to expect something similar this time around.
Henderson has not completed a takedown in his last eight fights, while Bisping has gone nine bouts without taking an opponent down. The takedown is clearly not a part of either fighter's standard game plan, and there is no reason to expect this to change at UFC 204.
Defensively, neither man is ironclad. Bisping has shown a decent sprawl, while Henderson's has been ineffective.
Still, Henderson has the credentials, and he has suffered the misfortune of Daniel Cormier skewing his stats downward. So while this matchup is closer than you might guess at first glance, the edge remains with the former Olympian.
Edge: Henderson
Submissions
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Henderson has 32 career wins, but only two have come via the tap. One of those was due to strikes. The other happened in 1997.
But while Henderson's submission offense is a non-entity, his defense is solid. He's been defeated with a hold four times during his career, but he has also survived long periods grappling with some dangerous competition.
Bisping's story is similar. He last submitted an opponent in 2005 and has never scored a UFC submission. Defensively, he's been submitted just once, and that came after he was dazed by strikes.
It is unlikely that this bout ends with a submission, but if it does, it will probably be Bisping getting his hand raised.
Edge: Bisping
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X-Factors
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Henderson's X-factor: Vitality
Typically, fighters that find themselves competing for a title have generated a strong record of recent results. Not so for Henderson, who has posted a 3-6 mark over his last nine outings.
Just as notable as the losses themselves is the fact that three of Henderson's defeats have come via the knockout. Even in the three fights he's won, Henderson has suffered three knockdowns.
Plainly, Henderson's durability is not what it used to be, and in fact, it has turned from major strength to major weakness. Against Bisping, this vulnerability is especially dangerous. Not because the Brit is a hard-hitter, but because he hits a lot.
If Henderson wants a chance of capturing the title—beyond winging right hands and hoping for the best—he needs to tighten up his defense and absorb less damage than he has been absorbing over the past few years.
Bisping's X-factor: Staying vigilant
Bisping famously circled straight into Henderson's power hand during the first contest. I'm sure he's learned not to do that a second time. But there is more to it than the direction he floated.
Bisping is, shall we say, a confident man. And he has the right to be. He is, after all, a tremendous fighter. But he needs to maintain his guard during every second of his upcoming tussle with Henderson.
Despite Henderson's decaying chin, he still recovers quickly, and he has the habit of unleashing when you believe his only option is to cover up. Bisping cannot grow overconfident—even if he works Hendo into a dicey place.
If the champ does start to feel a little too secure, then history may well repeat itself.
Prediction
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Bisping vs. Henderson I happened long enough in the past that it shouldn't inform how we expect Bisping vs. Henderson II to play out.
Though it is a greatly overused cliche, both men truly are different fighters at this point in their respective careers, and that will stimulate a different result.
The most notable difference will be the victor. Bisping is going to even the score and do so by knocking Henderson out. Maybe it won't be as iconic as Henderson's knockout of him, but I'm certain Bisping will find pleasure in it nonetheless.
Bisping simply sets too hard a pace and applies too consistent pressure for Henderson to handle. The 46-year-old always retains a puncher's chance, but that chance is a slight one. He'll crumble in the champion's wake, allowing Bisping to claim his revenge and notch his first title defense.
Prediction: Bisping def. Henderson, knockout, Rd. 2
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