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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 21, 2016

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) calls a play during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Sept. 18, 2016, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King)
Andy Clayton-King/Associated Press

A pair of NFC North rivals coming off stunning Week 2 losses meet on Sunday when the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field.

The high-scoring Lions struggled to generate offense in last week's 16-15 loss to Tennessee as six-point home chalk, ending a four-game straight-up and against-the-spread win streak. The Packers are winless ATS on the season after falling 17-14 as one-point chalk in Minnesota.

Green Bay has been out-gained in each of its two outings this year and needed a huge defensive effort to preserve a 27-24 win in Jacksonville two weeks ago.

       

Point spread: The Packers opened as eight-point favorites. The total was 48 early in the week.

Odds Shark computer pick: Packers 25.6, Lions 12.6 (NFL picks on every game)

         

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions had no answer for the Titans' fourth-quarter comeback in last week's loss, and they now travel to Green Bay looking to reverse a dismal 1-24 SU record in their past 25 visits to Lambeau Field.

Detroit has tallied 24 or more points in five of its last seven games, forcing the point total over on five occasions. But the Titans effectively contained the Lions offense, which failed to crack the Tennessee 40-yard line on five of its final six possessions.

An 18-16 win in Week 10 last season ended Detroit's 24-year losing streak in Green Bay. The Lions, though, have topped 20 points just once in their past five visits to Lambeau Field. However, they are 4-3 ATS in their past seven games as road underdogs of seven or more points.

        

Why the Packers can cover the spread

After throwing two touchdown passes and running for a third score in Jacksonville two weeks ago, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter against Minnesota. That sealed his team's defeat while knocking down its odds to win Super Bowl LI, according to GambleOnline.co.

Rodgers has topped 220 passing yards just twice in his past eight games but has an opportunity to open it up against a Lions pass defense that has surrendered an average of 296 aerial yards this season.

However, the Packers must overcome their current 0-3 run against the spread when favored at home by a touchdown or more.

       

Smart pick

The Lions offense will be looking to bounce back after being frustrated by a stingy Tennessee defense, but it will be in tough again this week against a Green Bay defense that held visitors to just 17.1 points per game last season.

While Rodgers' late-game struggles in Minnesota raised concerns, there is no reason to doubt that the Packers star will rise to the occasion in their home opener. The point total has finished under in the Packers' past six home games, with opponents tallying just 18.3 points per game.

Look for the Packers to bounce back with an SU and ATS win on Sunday.

        

Betting trends

  • The Lions are 1-24 SU in their last 25 games on the road against the Packers.
  • The Packers are 21-8-1 SU in their last 30 games against their division.
  • The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.

         

All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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