
Florida State vs. Louisville: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
The second-ranked Florida State Seminoles will travel to face the No. 10 Louisville Cardinals on Saturday, Sept. 17, in a pivotal ACC and Atlantic Division showdown.
Fresh off a 52-8 smackdown of Charleston Southern, Jimbo Fisher's team enters a tough four-week stretch that includes three road contests. But after a 22-point comeback against Ole Miss in the opener, the 'Noles seem prepared for the task.
That job won't be easy, however. Louisville has soared up the rankings thanks to dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has captivated college football with his powerful arm and dynamic feet.
The 'Noles hold a 14-2 advantage in the all-time series and have defeated the Cardinals in both games since they joined the ACC.
Kickoff is slated for noon ET and will be televised on ABC. According to Odds Shark, the Seminoles are 2.5-point favorites.
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Settle In Quickly
Deondre Francois' debut featured a thrilling comeback win over a ranked team. Awesome? Definitely. Ideal? No way.
As the Rebels raced out to a 21-6 lead, Florida State averaged just 3.2 yards on 10 first-down snaps. Remove a 13-yard gain following a false start, and the number drops to 2.1. Plus, during that time, the 'Noles faced six third downs at a distance of 9.5 yards per play.
It's no wonder Ole Miss pulled ahead so quickly. Unless this team is following in the footsteps of 2014's comeback kids, Florida State needs a faster start.
Limit Explosive Plays
Louisville leads the Football Bowl Subdivision in snaps that gained at least 10, 20, 30 and 70 yards. The offense isn't completely built on explosive plays, but the Cardinals clearly don't lack the capability.
The Seminoles were expected to boast one of the nation's toughest defenses. Although the unit allowed 11 gains of 10-plus yards to Ole Miss in the first half, Florida State surrendered just four after the break—while creating three takeaways.
Jackson and Co. might exploit a few holes early, but the 'Noles adjusted perfectly to Chad Kelly. Can they do the same at Louisville?
Louisville Keys to Victory
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Establish the Non-Jackson Running Game
Jackson is an electric playmaker, carving up defenses both as a designed runner and scrambler. However, he's not the only threat in the Cardinals backfield.
Unlike Ole Miss, Louisville has a proven runner. Brandon Radcliff has topped the 100-yard mark six times in his career, highlighted by a personal-best 156 last week against Syracuse.
But through two games, Jackson has carried the ball 32 times compared to just 44 for the rest of the roster. The Cardinals need to establish Radcliff early to ease the pressure on Jackson.
Force Field Goals
Louisville's defense could be tremendous yet still give up 20-plus points. That's a credit to the potential of Florida State's offense.
One key for Todd Grantham's unit on Saturday is to exemplify the popular maxim, "Bend, don't break." Now, the Cardinals also need to cause problems sooner than Ole Miss, which forced six field goals yet allowed a total of 10 scoring opportunities.
Florida State is going to put points on the board, but allowing three is better than surrendering seven. The math checks out.
Florida State Players to Watch
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Dalvin Cook, Running Back
College football fans knew Dalvin Cook was a premier running back with a versatile skill set. Against Ole Miss, though, he made an enormous impact as a pass-catcher.
The junior grabbed seven passes for 101 yards. Cook would've added a touchdown had he not inexplicably dropped the ball while heading into the end zone untouched, but that's not the point. He offered FSU yet another target for its young quarterback.
Cook gashed Louisville last season, amassing 223 total yards and two scores on 26 touches. If he puts together a performance even remotely similar, the Seminoles will be in an excellent position to win.
DeMarcus Walker, Defensive End
What will DeMarcus Walker do for an encore?
The senior defensive end obliterated the Ole Miss offense line for 4.5 sacks during the second half. Bringing down Kelly is hard enough. Jackson is even tougher, and Walker knows it.
"At ACC media days I told him "Yo, don't do all that scrambling,'" Walker said, per ESPN's Jared Shanker. "I was so serious."
Jackson and Walker are almost certain to encounter each other a few times in the backfield. Whoever wins the battle will provide a useful—even if only brief—spark for his team.
Louisville Players to Watch
4 of 6Lamar Jackson, Quarterback
You couldn't possibly expect anyone else, right? Jackson has surpassed the offseason hype, accounting for 1,015 yards and 13 touchdowns in just six quarters of action.
But it was only Charlotte and Syracuse, the doubters say. Fair point. So now, Jackson has the opportunity to prove his early-season highlight reel is simply the start of an electrifying season.
Remember, there is a middle ground. Jackson won't automatically become the next best thing or a complete bust depending on his performance. Still, Saturday is an important game for the sophomore.
Devonte Fields, Outside Linebacker
The primary job of an edge-rusher like Devonte Fields is to be a playmaker in the backfield. After racking up 22.5 tackles for loss last season, he certainly fits the mold. However, the senior must be careful not to over-pursue against the Seminoles.
Florida State will likely call several play-action rollouts. If Fields is too aggressive and breaks contain, Francois will rip off some 20-yard runs and calmly complete passes on the run. Plus, Cook can quickly cut back and turn nothing into something.
Fields boasts NFL-caliber physical skills, but his mental acuity needs to show on Saturday afternoon, too.
What They're Saying
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Florida State
Derwin James will be unavailable for the game because of a left knee injury. Brendan Sonnone of 247Sports explained why the sophomore's absence is a problem for the FSU defense:
"Louisville has a dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and James' presence would've been key in neutralizing Jackson's ability to run. FSU frequently used James as a spy against mobile quarterbacks last season and the sophomore has also been the Seminoles' most consistent defender in coverage early this year.
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Louisville
The Cardinals are preparing for what is arguably the most important home game in program history. Plus, ESPN's College GameDay will be on site for the first time ever.
"It's great for the University of Louisville, great for our football program," head coach Bobby Petrino said, according to Jeff Greer of the Courier-Journal. "Now we need to go out and play well."
Prediction
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Between a torrid start to 2016 and James' injury, the stars seem to be aligning in Louisville's favor. But while the first quarter will be a fast-paced frame that suits the Cardinals, Florida State will strike first.
The offenses will take over during the second period, trading several scores before Aguayo's second field goal propels the Seminoles to a 27-17 lead at halftime.
Although Jackson will guide Louisville to a quick touchdown, FSU will respond with a trip to the end zone by Cook and another three-pointer from Aguayo to build a 37-24 advantage. Jackson will lead a late scoring drive, but it won't be enough to topple the 'Noles.
Florida State will secure a critical ACC victory and move to 3-0, while the Cardinals will fall to a hard-fought 2-1.
Prediction: Florida State 37, Louisville 31
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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