NFL Picks Week 1: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

The long, excruciating wait is over: The 2016 NFL regular season is officially upon us.

The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos kick things off Thursday night with a repeat of their Super Bowl matchup, setting the stage for a predictably huge opening weekend. All the off-field distractions will go by the wayside, and, for once, we'll finally get to focus on the game at hand.

Fantasy football is back! The NFL RedZone channel is back! Every team has a chance! OK—every team except the Cleveland Browns has a chance!

It's all fun and games and candy and lollipops right now. We won't face the sobering reality of the sport we're watching until at least three minutes into the first game. And, boy, those will be some grand three minutes. With that in mind, let's check in on the weekend schedule with some tips on how to bet Week 1.

Game	Point Spread	Prediction
Carolina at Denver	Car. (-3)	Carolina
Minnesota at Tennessee	Minn. (-1.5)	Tennessee
San Diego at Kansas City	KC (-7)	San Diego
Chicago at Houston	Hou. (-6)	Houston
Oakland at New Orleans	NO (-1)	New Orleans
Green Bay at Jacksonville	GB (-4.5)	Green Bay
Cincinnati at New York Jets	Cin. (-2.5)	Cincinnati
Cleveland at Philadelphia	Phil (-4)	Philadelphia
Buffalo at Baltimore	Balt. (-3)	Buffalo
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	Atl. (-3)	Tampa Bay
Miami at Seattle	Sea. (-10.5)	Miami
New York Giants at Dallas	Even	New York Giants
Detroit at Indianapolis	Ind. (-4)	Indianapolis
New England at Arizona	Ariz. (-6)	New England
Pittsburgh at Washington	Pitt (-3)	Pittsburgh
Los Angeles at San Francisco	LA (-2.5)	Los Angeles

Team	Odds
Green Bay Packers	+600
New England Patriots	+650
Seattle Seahawks	+900
Pittsburgh Steelers	+1100
Carolina Panthers	+1100
Arizona Cardinals	+1100
Denver Broncos	+1800
Cincinnati Bengals	+1800
New York Giants	+1800
Kansas City Chiefs	+1800
Oakland Raiders	+2500
Dallas Cowboys	+2500
Minnesota Vikings	+2500
Houston Texans	+4000
Baltimore Ravens	+4000
Jacksonville Jaguars	+4000
Washington	+5000
New York Jets	+6600
Atlanta Falcons	+6600
Chicago Bears	+7500
Buffalo Bills	+7500
Philadelphia Eagles	+7500
Los Angeles Rams	+7500
Miami Dolphins	+7500
Detroit Lions	+7500
San Diego Chargers	+7500
New Orleans Saints	+7500
Tennessee Titans	+7500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+10000
San Francisco 49ers	+15000
Cleveland Browns	+15000

Best Week 1 Bets

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have rightfully received hype as one of the NFL's rising franchises. They've built a solid infrastructure around draft picks, seemingly have a quarterback of the future in Blake Bortles and solidified a couple of weaknesses (running back and defensive line) in free agency.

Still, you're getting the Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers at less than a touchdown favorite against a team that hasn't won more than five games since 2010. Jacksonville hasn't won a season opener since 2011, while the Packers are finally getting an added benefit of playing a non-elite team in the first week. (That five-year stretch from 2010-14 was a bloodbath.)

Rodgers should begin a bounce-back campaign here with a big afternoon. Look for the Pack to roll and make that 4.5-point spread look silly.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Detroit Lions

My review of quarterback Matthew Stafford without Calvin Johnson: Noooo thanks. The magnitude of Megatron's loss should hit the Detroit Lions starting from the opening snap, with Stafford no longer having perhaps the most physically gifted receiver ever around to bail him out.

While it's true Stafford was great toward the end of last season, he wasn't playing with a receiving corps spearheaded by Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. This will be a far different (and worse) Lions offense than what we saw toward the end of 2015.

The Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, should be back to firing on all cylinders after an inexplicably bad campaign. Quarterback Andrew Luck was hurt all season and bad when he wasn't, the coaching staff seemed under siege the entire season and free-agent pickups busted one after another. Luck looked much closer to his 2014 self in the preseason, and there should be some organizational harmony after the great retention caper.

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) over Seattle Seahawks

The Miami Dolphins have a talented roster, a smart new coaching staff and a history of being essentially as good on the road as they are at home. A line of 10.5 points just feels like it's too much in Week 1, even for the Seattle Seahawks at home.

They lost Marshawn Lynch, Russell Okung, Bruce Irvin and a number of other contributors. The roster is beginning to feel the pinch of having so many high-profile extensions on the books. Seattle is still really, really good, but this isn't the impenetrable roster that seemed to have the NFC on lock for years to come.

The Dolphins have a really good shot of covering here.

Winning? Let me get back to you on that. 

Best Super Bowl Props

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)

The only major questions here are pass defense and health. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger leads perhaps the most talented offense in football, featuring the NFL's best receiver (Antonio Brown) and its best all-around running back when healthy (Le'Veon Bell). Had Bell not been suspended for the first three games, it's possible the first two picks in your fantasy draft would have been Pittsburgh Steelers.

Despite dealing with injuries all over the roster, Pittsburgh finished third in total offense last season. Its pass rush was back to being one of the best in the sport, as was its run defense. The Steelers were secretly one of the league's best all-around teams, and they should be better in 2016.

If they can even get mediocre production from the secondary and Bell returns to 100 percent, they're probably the AFC's best team.

Washington (50-1)

Listen, Washington's not winning the Super Bowl. If we've learned anything from this moribund franchise, it's that it will find any and every way to shoot itself in the foot when any positive progress is made.

That said, 50-1 is an insane number. Washington won the NFC East last season. It took care of perhaps its biggest problem area by signing cornerback Josh Norman to a massive contract. Quarterback Kirk Cousins might actually be good instead of a half-season blip on the radar. 

But more than anything, it's those odds that make this worth a flier. Washington somehow has significantly worse odds than the Dallas Cowboys, who aren't even sure they'll have quarterback Tony Romo at all this season. The New York Giants spent their offseason having a Washingtonian splurge on free-agent contracts that will look awful in two years.

There's a pretty decent chance Washington repeats in the NFC East. There's no real reason for it to have worse Super Bowl odds than the Jaguars.