College Football Picks Week 1: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule
When people say this is the best opening week of college football in recent memory, it's not hyperbole.
As far as season kickoffs go, the 2016 Week 1 slate is absolutely loaded.
Sure, there's still the occasional college football contender taking on Directional State University (looking at you, Oklahoma State, Oregon and TCU), but there are several contests that figure to be competitive as we welcome college football back into our lives.
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Below is a look at the complete slate for the teams in the Associated Press Top 25 along with the latest odds from Odds Shark and predictions against the spread. After that, we'll look at three of the most intriguing matchups on the slate as some teams will already be looking to bolster their playoff resumes in a big way.
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Broadcast | ATS Prediction |
| Charlotte @ No. 19 Louisville (-39.5) | 7 p.m. | ESPN3 | Louisville |
| Appalachian State @ No. 9 Tennessee (-20) | 7:30 p.m. | SECN | Tennessee |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Broadcast | ATS Prediction |
| Furman @ No. 12 Michigan State (N/A) | 7 p.m. | BTN | N/A |
| Northwestern State @ No. 23 Baylor (N/A) | 7:30 p.m. | N/A | N/A |
| Kansas State @ No. 8 Stanford (-16) | 9 p.m. | FS1 | Kansas State |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Broadcast | ATS Prediction |
| Hawaii @ No. 7 Michigan (-40.5) | 12 p.m. | ESPN | Michigan |
| BGSU @ No. 6 Ohio State (-27) | 12 p.m. | BTN | Ohio State |
| No. 3 Oklahoma (-10.5) vs. No. 15 Houston | 12 p.m. | ABC | Oklahoma |
| Rutgers @ No. 14 Washington (-26) | 2 p.m. | PACN | Washington |
| Miami (OH) @ No. 17 Iowa (-27.5) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPNU | Iowa |
| SE Louisiana @ No. 21 Oklahoma State (N/A) | 3:30 p.m. | N/A | N/A |
| No. 16 UCLA @ Texas A&M (-3) | 3:30 p.m. | CBS | UCLA |
| No. 5 LSU (-10) vs. Wisconsin | 3:30 p.m. | ABC | LSU |
| UC-Davis @ No. 24 Oregon (N/A) | 5 p.m. | PACN | N/A |
| No. 18 Georgia (-3) vs. No. 22 North Carolina | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN | UNC |
| Massachusetts @ No. 25 Florida (-36) | 7:30 p.m. | SECN | UMass |
| No. 20 USC @ No. 1 Alabama (-10.5) | 8 p.m. | ABC | Alabama |
| South Dakota State @ No. 13 TCU (N/A) | 8 p.m. | N/A | N/A |
| No. 2 Clemson (-7.5) @ Auburn | 9 p.m. | ESPN | Auburn |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Broadcast | ATS Prediction |
| No. 10 Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Texas | 7:30 p.m. | ABC | Notre Dame |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Broadcast | ATS Prediction |
| No. 11 Ole Miss @ No. 4 Florida State (-44) | 8 p.m. | ESPN | Florida State |
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Houston
A lot of early-season narratives will be addressed when the Oklahoma Sooners and Houston Cougars get on the field to start the season.
First, the Sooners will need to prove themselves as a playoff team all over again. Getting blown out by the Clemson Tigers in the semifinal game took off a lot of their shine to conclude the season, but there's plenty of returning talent.
That talent starts with Baker Mayfield. The quarterback barely missed the cutoff to be a Heisman finalist last season with 36 passing touchdowns to seven interceptions. It also includes Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, both of whom averaged in the ballpark of six yards per carry last season.
Houston brings back some of its biggest names as well, namely head coach Tom Herman, quarterback Greg Ward and receiver Demarcus Ayers.
The Cougars are 10.5-point underdogs and will likely be a trendy pick. Unlike Oklahoma, the Cougars finished the season strong with a bowl win over Florida State.
Unfortunately for Houston, this isn't the 2015 season. While Ayers and Ward should be an explosive duo once again, the defense will have to replace key experience in the secondary, with just one senior defending the pass, cornerback Brandon Wilson.
It's hard to project teams this early, but Bill Connelly of SBNation's preseason S&P projections attempted to do just that.
One of the factors taken into consideration is returning production. Oklahoma ranks fourth overall and fourth in that component, while Houston is 53 overall with the 50th-best returning production.
That will be the difference, as asking a relatively young group to beat Oklahoma is a tall task.
Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Houston 28
No. 20 USC at No. 1 Alabama
Call it the Lane Kiffin bowl.
Kiffin will welcome the team he once coached to Tuscaloosa to take on the team that has rejuvenated his career. Kiffin's unlikely pairing with head coach Nick Saban has produced a monster that few in college football could've foreseen or even wanted to foresee.
The Trojans once again come into the season with hype. According to Connelly's preseason projections, they have the 14th-best production coming back but are also No. 2 in recruiting impact. That means the Trojans will be depending on some of their newly acquired talent to keep them competitive against some of the best in the nation.
None of that returning production is coming from Cody Kessler, though. The quarterback is now a Cleveland Brown and will be replaced by junior Max Browne. Browne attempted just 12 passes last season as the backup to Kessler, and while he has one of the best weapons in the nation in JuJu Smith-Schuster, quarterbacks debuting against Alabama haven't had much luck in recent years, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Truthfully, Kiffin's offense won't have to do much. It'll be breaking in a new quarterback itself, and Saban won't even go as far as to say who it will be yet out of the trio of Cooper Bateman, Blake Barnett or Jalen Hurts, per Charlie Potter of 247Sports:
"“We’ve really shared the reps with the guys,” Saban said. “We try to give guys a little bit more of a rhythm in terms of the number of reps they got, to see how they respond to it. As of right now, there’s no decision that has been made on anyone in particular, and we want to continue to do that until somebody sort of takes the bull by the horns and does what we think he needs to do to have a chance to play winning football for us on football [sic].
"
The whole situation has a similar feel to when Alabama once again took on preseason No. 20 Wisconsin in its season opener last season. Jake Coker and Bateman both played in that game, while the Crimson Tide rode its run game and dominant defense to a 35-17 win.
Expect something similar here.
Prediction: Alabama 34, USC 17
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 4 Florida State
Without the NFL, college football will get the Monday Night Football treatment when the Ole Miss Rebels travel to play ACC opponent Florida State.
Those tuning in won't be disappointed. As if the lack of NFL games wasn't enough, there are plenty of reasons to watch this game, including a look at one of the two top running backs in the nation, Dalvin Cook.
Cook was an absolute marvel last season, as he was a threat to take any run to the house thanks to a combination of vision, elusiveness and toughness that made him tough to bring down. ACC Digital Network created a video that displayed some of his greatest hits from last season:
Cook and Co. come in at No. 5 on Connelly's preseason projections, but Ole Miss isn't too far behind at No. 7. That's a recipe for both of these teams to have great seasons and test each other early on.
The problem for Ole Miss is that while Florida State has its biggest star back, it will have to work to replace Laremy Tunsil, Laquon Treadwell, both Nkemdiche brothers and Cody Core. Then there's the issue of the offensive line.
According to Ourlads, the Rebels will likely have three sophomores and a freshman on the offensive line. In addition to needing to find new receivers to lead the offense, returning quarterback Chad Kelly might be asked to do too much too often to make this one winnable for the Rebels.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Ole Miss 21
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