Fantasy Football 2016: Breaking Down Updated Mock Draft and Mobile Cheat Sheet

Anybody can slap down a bunch of rankings and leave them there for you to ponder and disagree with and consult without any real context. But what's the point of that? Will rankings alone help you craft a draft philosophy?

I think not.

So I decided to provide my 10-round rankings round by round in the format of a 10-player draft, breaking down the type of strategy I'll be employing each round. Certainly, my strategy isn't a fixed one—a great fantasy player adapts to their league's other players and what the board provides—but my rankings should give you an idea of how I'll be approaching fantasy drafts this summer.

Pick	Player	Position	Team
1	Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota Vikings
2	Antonio Brown	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers
3	Odell Beckham, Jr.	WR	New York Giants
4	Julio Jones	WR	Atlanta Falcons
5	Todd Gurley	RB	St. Louis Rams
6	Rob Gronkowski	TE	New England Patriots
7	David Johnson	RB	Arizona Cardinals
8	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Dallas Cowboys
9	A.J. Green	WR	Cincinnati Bengals
10	Lamar Miller	RB	Houston Texans

Note: If Le'Veon Bell wins his appeal and isn't suspended for any games, he's the top player on my board. These rankings reflect his current four-game suspension status, however.

A lot of people are going to recommend taking a wide receiver in the first round. It makes sense, frankly. Wide receivers—at least the elite at the position—have become safer than running backs, a position in flux in the NFL at the moment. 

Consider that last season, both Antonio Brown and Julio Jones scored more fantasy points than any running back, and seven wide receivers and just three running backs made the top 10 of last year's flex scoring leaders. Only Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin cracked the list.

So if you decided to target wide receivers in the first round, I wouldn't blame you.

But the first round isn't just about making the safest pick; it's about making the safest pick that maximizes value. And I still believe that this season, maximizing value means getting one of the elite running backs when you can. There are only a handful of players who seem like guarantees to be their teams' workhorses, as so many teams turn to a running-back-by-committee philosophy. 

That's why I have Adrian Peterson No. 1 overall and five running backs in my top 10. Yes, I worry about Peterson's age, Todd Gurley's health, the fact that David Johnson has only one season on his resume, the fact that we haven't seen Ezekiel Elliott play at all in the NFL yet and Lamar Miller's upside.

But I also know that Peterson is the most consistent fantasy running back of the past decade, Gurley will be the centerpiece of the Los Angeles Rams offense, Johnson was unstoppable once he became Arizona's feature back, Ezekiel is a talented young player behind the league's best offensive line and Miller has been a top-10 running back two seasons in a row and heads to a Houston offense with talent in place.

So yes, I'm not completely shying away from running backs early in the draft. I still think Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. should be top-five picks. For my money, tight end Rob Gronkowski has more value at tight end than any other player has at any other position, and A.J. Green is incredibly consistent and should have a monster season with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu leaving this offseason.

But if you can get an elite running back, do so early. They are going to thin out pretty quickly, while you can get quality wideouts down the board.

Pick	Player	Position	Team
11	Dez Bryant	WR	Dallas Cowboys
12	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Houston Texans
13	Brandon Marshall	WR	New York Jets
14	Mark Ingram	RB	New Orleans Saints
15	Doug Martin	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16	LeSean McCoy	RB	Buffalo Bills
17	Allen Robinson	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars
18	Jordy Nelson	WR	Green Bay Packers
19	Alshon Jeffery	WR	Chicago Bears
20	Thomas Rawls	RB	Seattle Seahawks

To me, the first three rounds, at least, are about drafting safe, highly productive players. You shouldn't be taking too many chances. Most of the players on my list here have had several productive fantasy seasons in their careers and are in positions to do so again.

Two players don't quite fit that formula, however: Allen Robinson and Thomas Rawls. So why are they worth a bit more risk?

What I love about Robinson is that his production from a year ago is sustainable. He was targeted 153 times last season, eighth among wide receivers, suggesting that most of his production came from being a huge part of Jacksonville's offense and not something more unstable, like touchdown production.

Yes, it's possible he won't record 14 touchdown receptions again. But even if that number dips, he should accumulate a ton of receptions and yards based on his usage alone, something his teammate, Allen Hurns—who was targeted just 103 times last year but caught 10 touchdown passes—can't say.

Robinson, then, seems like a safe bet to repeat as a top-10 fantasy wideout.

Rawls, meanwhile, has the benefit of heading into the 2016 season as a feature back on an offense that loves to pound the ball on the ground. Consider that before 2015, Marshawn Lynch had four straight seasons of at least 280 carries and 310 total touches as Seattle's workhorse.

Sure, it's fair to question if Rawls will ever go full Beast Mode with his opportunity. But he did rush for 830 yards last season when Lynch was hurt, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry. What Rawls lacks in pedigree he makes up for in potential, making him a strong bet to post RB1 numbers this year. 

Pick	Player	Position	Team
21	Devonta Freeman	RB	Atlanta Falcons
22	Mike Evans	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23	Jamaal Charles	RB	Kansas City Chiefs
24	Demaryius Thomas	WR	Denver Broncos
25	Sammy Watkins	WR	Buffalo Bills
26	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers
27	Brandin Cooks	WR	New Orleans Saints
28	Jordan Reed	TE	Washington
29	Carlos Hyde	RB	San Francisco 49ers
30	Cam Newton	QB	Carolina Panthers

Quarterback and tight end (after Gronkowski) are two positions you can probably wait on this year and still find nice players, but if you want last year's MVP, Cam Newton, on your team, this is the round I'd take him.

But carefully consider holding off on a quarterback. You can get amazing value later in your draft, especially since 12 players at the position last year averaged at least 17 fantasy points per game in standard leagues.

And then there's Jordan Reed. He's a pretty big risk in the third round, but if you want him, that's when you'll have to get him. His injury history terrifies me, as does the fact that you can probably ignore tight end for a few more rounds and still get a solid player. 

But man, he was great last year. He's clearly Kirk Cousins' favorite target, he's the team's only real threat in the red zone and he's always been an excellent athlete at the position hampered by a history of injury concerns, so his breakout wasn't totally shocking. He's high-risk, high-reward in Round 3, but if you want to solidify your tight end position early in the draft, Reed makes a lot of sense.

Pick	Player	Position	Team
31	Julian Edelman	WR	New England Patriots
32	Randall Cobb	WR	Green Bay Packers
33	Greg Olsen	TE	Carolina Panthers
34	Eddie Lacy	RB	Green Bay Packers
35	Amari Cooper	WR	Oakland Raiders
36	Keenan Allen	WR	San Diego Chargers
37	Eric Decker	WR	New York Jets
38	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Green Bay Packers
39	Russell Wilson	QB	Seattle Seahawks
40	C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos

Round 4, to me, is when you want to carefully start considering your team composition. If you haven't selected a running back or wide receiver yet, now is probably the time. On the other hand, if you haven't taken a quarterback or tight end, you don't necessarily need to do so now unless an elite option is still available to you. 

So in Round 4, seek excellent value that fits a team need. This is where bounce-back candidates like Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy—both of whom have been strong fantasy producers in the past—make sense.  

Pick	Player	Position	Team
41	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Carolina Panthers
42	T.Y. Hilton	WR	Indianapolis Colts
43	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Carolina Panthers
44	Matt Forte	RB	New York Jets
45	Dion Lewis	RB	New England Patriots
46	Golden Tate	WR	Detroit Lions
47	Andrew Luck	QB	Indianapolis Colts
48	Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins
49	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Kansas City Chiefs
50	Ryan Mathews	RB	Philadelphia Eagles

I always find this portion of the draft tricky. By Round 5, my instinct is to start filling out my starting lineup, but there are enough talented players left on the board that I still want to draft for value.

So, much like in Round 4, consider your roster. If you still haven't drafted a quarterback or tight end yet, don't reach. You'll be able to find excellent values down the board. If you have only one running back or none, however, you're going to want to address the position in this round. 

No, players like Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Dion Lewis and Ryan Mathews don't feel like sexy picks. But if you wait and find yourself rummaging through the bargain bin at the position later in the draft—or desperately scouring the waiver wire throughout the season—you'll be wishing you had solidified the position with a middle-of-the-road talent at this point in your draft.

Pick	Player	Position	Team
51	Doug Baldwin	WR	Seattle Seahawks
52	Jeremy Hill	RB	Cincinnati Bengals
53	Giovani Bernard	RB	Cincinnati Bengals
54	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Denver Broncos
55	Allen Hurns	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars
56	Donte Moncrief	WR	Indianapolis Colts
57	DeVante Parker	WR	Miami Dolphins
58	Delanie Walker	TE	Tennessee Titans
59	Drew Brees	QB	New Orleans Saints
60	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Pittsburgh Steelers

Still antsy about filling out your starting lineup? Now is a great round to start targeting quarterbacks. One of the elite options may have dropped if your league mates are waiting on the position, while safe options like Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees—who are always threats to be top-five producers at the position—may still be available.

These rounds are also a reminder of just how deep wide receiver, however, as a number of players who can sneak into your slot on a regular basis should still be available. A lot of potential breakout performers should be available around this time as well. So if you loaded up on other positions, these rounds will offer you the chance to fill out your roster with low-end WR2 or solid WR3 options.

Pick	Player	Position	Team
61	Jordan Matthews	WR	Philadelphia Eagles
62	DeSean Jackson	WR	Washington
63	Melvin Gordon	RB	San Diego Chargers
64	Matt Jones	RB	Washington
65	Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders
66	Danny Woodhead	RB	San Diego Chargers
67	Frank Gore	RB	Indianapolis Colts
68	Duke Johnson	RB	Cleveland Browns
69	Ameer Abdullah	RB	Detroit Lions
70	Michael Crabtree	WR	Oakland Raiders

At this point in the draft, you are looking for either breakout players or solid players with low ceilings. Perhaps you want young players who should see bigger roles next season. Or veterans with changes of scenery or new coaches who could thrive in new systems. 

But don't ignore reliable players who won't earn you any awards for unearthing fantasy football's biggest surprise but will offer you steady points each week. If there's a breakout player you love, Round 7 is a good time to grab him. Otherwise, don't be afraid to take a player here with a limited upside, especially if you took a few chances earlier in the draft.

Every roster needs balance. If you played it safe early, take a risk around this point in the draft. If you have a lot of boom-or-bust players, though, nab someone steady. 

Pick	Player	Position	Team
71	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Arizona Cardinals
72	Michael Floyd	WR	Arizona Cardinals
73	DeMarco Murray	RB	Tennessee Titans
74	Jeremy Langford	RB	Chicago Bears
75	Arian Foster	RB	Miami Dolphins
76	Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals
77	Tom Brady	QB	New England Patriots
78	Marvin Jones	WR	Detroit Lions
79	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers
80	Josh Gordon	WR	Cleveland Browns

This is another good point to grab a quarterback, at least in my rankings. If you grab Tom Brady or Carson Palmer, make sure you take a solid QB2 a few rounds later. Brady, because of his suspension. Palmer, because of his propensity to get injured. 

Otherwise, look for great values at wide receiver or running back to fill out your roster. 

Pick	Player	Position	Team
81	John Brown	WR	Arizona Cardinals
82	T.J. Yeldon	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars
83	Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens
84	Rashad Jennings	RB	New York Giants
85	Kevin White	WR	Chicago Bears
86	Eli Manning	QB	New York Giants
87	Blake Bortles	QB	Jacksonville Jaguars
88	Tony Romo	QB	Dallas Cowboys
89	Stefon Diggs	WR	Minnesota Vikings
90	Tyler Lockett	WR	Seattle Seahawks

See Round 8.

Pick	Player	Position	Team
91	Sterling Shepard	WR	New York Giants
92	Travis Kelce	TE	Kansas City Chiefs
93	Jimmy Graham	TE	Seattle Seahawks
94	Coby Fleener	TE	New Orleans Saints
95	Chris Ivory	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars
96	Torrey Smith	WR	San Francisco 49ers
97	Vincent Jackson	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
98	Zach Ertz	TE	Philadelphia Eagles
99	Willie Snead	WR	New Orleans Saints
100	Tyler Eifert	TE	Cincinnati Bengals

As you can see, I think you'll be able to wait until the 10th round before the run on tight ends really hits. And you can't go wrong with any of these players.

Travis Kelce is a reliable producer and Alex Smith's most trusted target. Jimmy Graham should have a bigger role in Seattle this year. Coby Fleener gets Brees and an offense that has always focused heavily on pass-catching tight ends. Zach Ertz will be a huge part of Doug Pederson's offense, as Kelce was in Kansas City last year. Tyler Eifert is this low only because of injury concerns; once healthy, he's Andy Dalton's favored weapon in the red zone.

There is depth at tight end this year. Some of these players may go a bit earlier in drafts, but you can probably wait quite a bit before filling the position.

All scoring and points-against stats via ESPN standard-scoring leagues. You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.