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Fantasy Football 2016: Buying or Selling Potential of Biggest Preseason Names

Richard JanvrinAug 14, 2016

We see it every single training camp and into the preseason.

What am I talking about, you might ask? You know, those "training camp heroes." However, the question we are forced to ask and answer for ourselves is, "Are these guys legitimate fantasy football options?"

Most of the time, no. And not only no, but heck no.

With that said, there are times where these players actually do come to fruition, and it's best that you're ahead of the curve and have that jump on your league mates.

Thankfully, that's what I'm here for.

Spoiler: Not all of these players are those random sixth-round picks. Some of these guys you will know quite well actually. However, they all still have that "potential" tag attached to them in some way, shape or form.

In this article, you'll see some rookies, as well as an almost 180 from a previous viewpoint on a player that I was sure was figured out. But he apparently is not.

Amazing what this game about a game does to you, man.

Buy: Keith Marshall, RB, Washington Redskins

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Last season Washington Redskins running back Matt Jones was a favorite of mine. I'll be honest, he still is.

But fellow running back Keith Marshall is a guy that you need to keep an eye on, despite his five-carry preseason debut for negative-one yard.

A few reasons factor in to why.

First, Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan mentioned the Redskins backfield on Sirius NFL Radio, according to Warren Sharp of ESPN and Fox on Twitter, saying, "It's a two-headed monster in the backfield." While we in the fantasy community are used to hearing this kind of news from coaches and those involved in organizations rather liberally, this one makes sense.

The reason this makes sense comes to my next point about Jones' 2015 campaign. Though Jones showed flashes, ball security was a major concern. He fumbled four times and at one point in back to back games.

Also, Jones wasn't exactly a superstar last season, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, though he did have a few games where he showed promise.

As PlayerProfiler points out, Marshall has outstanding speed for a guy of his build.

Although Marshall was a seventh-round pick by the team, you have to remember that he tore his ACL early in his college career. He was then trapped in a depth chart with the Georgia Bulldogs behind Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb.

Those two backs are pretty darn good.

What could cause a decrease in both Jones and Marshall's value, however, is another running back on the Redskins roster, Chris Thompson. Thompson is the primary pass-catching back on the team, thus leaving little chance that Jones or Marshall will fly up points per reception league rankings.

Washington has a history of drafting running backs late who end up panning out. If Jones is unable to put it together and cannot hold onto the football, Marshall becomes a legitimate threat for head coach Jay Gruden to say "screw it" and throw Marshall in there.

Buy: Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants

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If you plan on following my work at all this fantasy football season, you're going to likely see a good amount of New York Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard.

Not only is Shepard on a team that features fellow Odell Beckham Jr. to take a lot of the coverage away from him, but the Giants pass attack is one of the more vicious in the league. In 2015, the Giants and quarterback Eli Manning threw an average of close to 39 passes per game, which ranked seventh in the NFL.

Also, Shepard's route running ability is what's going to lead to more snaps, as he will be able to do essentially anything the team asks of him. As Matt Harmon points out in his rookie wide receiver Reception Perception, Shepard can simply do it all.

After reviewing film from the Giants' first preseason game against the Miami Dolphins, Shepard played in 29 snaps. In those 29 snaps, the Giants used him mostly in the slot, lining up 20 times in the left and right slot combined. Shepard line up at the "X" position five times and four times at the "Y" position as well.

Throughout the game, Shepard created space with no problem, ran all of his routes well and blocked well when asked to. Other than Shepard's lone, amazing catch where he destroyed Dolphins defensive back Michael Thomas, there was a play in particular near the goal line in which Shepard was wide open, but Giants quarterback Ryan Nassib didn't even look his way. This was a common sighting throughout the game. You know, Nassib missing Shepard. 

While Shepard's stat line was nothing to rave about, he did everything right from what you look for in a wide receiver. Prospective fantasy owners should be excited. The Giants have something special here.

Any rave review you see about Shepard from here on out (like that of Jordan Ranaan of ESPN), should be taken as confirmation that you're drafting a potential WR2 at a WR37 price.

Sell: Blaine Gabbert, QB, San Francisco 49ers

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According to Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat on Twitter, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been missing practice with a shoulder injury. Cohn has also speculated the shoulder injury as a potential rotator cuff issue.

As a result, Kaepernick will likely not play in the 49ers preseason opener this Sunday against the Houston Texans, thus putting fellow quarterback Blaine Gabbert in the driver's seat to separate himself in what has appeared to be a three-quarterback battle between Kaepernick, Gabbert and rookie Jeff Driskel.

While I'm a believer that there is some fantasy value to be had on this team, it's not in Gabbert. To this point, it's looking more and more obvious that Gabbert will be the starter. But his fantasy value is limited, especially in one-quarterback leagues.

Yet, if you are someone who plays in a two-quarterback league, Gabbert does offer upside.

With Gabbert all but being officially named the starter, this could help with running back Shaun Draughn and wide receiver Bruce Ellington's fantasy prospects. Cohn illustrates that both guys have been favorites of Gabbert in camp.

Wide receiver Torrey Smith, Ellington, Draughn and running back Carlos Hyde are all worth drafting in fantasy. However, the trigger man is not in one-quarterback leagues.

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Buy: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills

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Well it is about time, Buffalo Bills.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Bills have signed Taylor to a six-year, $92 million deal. However, the deal appears to still be structured in a "prove it" kind of fashion with Taylor receiving $9.5 million this year and then the team has an option. If the Bills pick up the option, Taylor will earn $27.5 million in 2017, and that is truly when the extension begins, as Rapsheet points out.

This is fantastic news. A potential contract extension has been circulating all offseason for the veteran out of Virginia Tech.

While Taylor has been around for a while, the "potential" tag still applies, as there has been a fair amount of speculation of whether or not Taylor is a legitimate starting quarterback option.

As Tom Pelissero of USA Today points out, Bills head coach Rex Ryan has touted Taylor as "a special talent."

It's great to see the Bills finally put their money where their mouth is and make the investment in Taylor.

Playing in 14 games last season, Taylor finished as the QB9 during the weeks he played (counting the bye week). In those 14 games, Taylor was third in the league in average depth of target (aDOT), which is an encouraging statistic for all potential owners of wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

In terms of the passing attack, it is nearly impossible for the Bills and Taylor to regress as they finished 31st in the league in terms of pass attempts per game.

Keeping in mind the deep ball prowess, running ability and the idea that his passing attempts cannot regress, Taylor makes for a sneaky QB1 option at a late 11th round price tag.

The triumvirate of Taylor, Watkins and running back LeSean McCoy is going to be entertaining in 2016.

Buy: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

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You know, it sure is great when you can find a player you're truly on board with from the pre-draft process, after he is drafted and through training camp.

But what's even better is when that player comes out Week 1 of the preseason and confirms your beliefs in him. As you can see, the player we are talking about here is New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas.

Before the game, every single report you read on Thomas was nothing less than a glowing, positive report of what the rookie has been able to do in camp.

One example of this is what Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Times-Picayune reported, saying that Thomas has "looked like a bonafide playmaker." Believe me, there are many similar reports. 

While this is just preseason, and most people think it should just be eradicated all together, Thomas' Twitter handle of "Cantguardmike" proved itself last night.

In Week 1 of the preseason against the New England Patriots, Thomas had quite the nice stat line, catching four of his six targets for 67 yards. Though that is a respectable stat line, it does not tell the entire story.

Against Patriots cornerback Justin Coleman, Thomas demolished him, specifically on one route and catch down the sideline that was later reviewed and upheld.Thomas showed the ball skills that he possesses and his ability to get up over opposing defensive backs and get the ball.

There was also another catch Thomas had in which the defender was actually called for pass interference, but Thomas was able to free his hand and catch the ball anyway.

Though fellow wide receiver Brandon Coleman started the game ahead of Thomas, Saints head coach Sean Payton will be thinking long and hard leading up to next week on what to do.

Thomas has earned a shot. By the time preseason ends, you can expect him to be starting along with Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead.

Sell: Ladarius Green, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Ladarius Green has been making headlines this entire offseason for all the wrong reasons.

No, Green may not be a young stud performing well in camp, but the potential for Green in this Steelers high-octane offense was seemingly limitless.

Throughout this offseason, Green has been dealing with the aftermath of ankle surgery that has kept him on the sideline, missing the teams first preseason game. However, what is causing me to "sell" Green are the scary headaches he is still having after suffering from concussions in the past.

Lasting effects from concussions are not anything to be taken lightly. In fact, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the 25-year-old tight end could be forced to retire as a result. Apparently the Steelers had no knowledge of these headaches, according to Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

This would of course be a huge blow to a Steelers offense that is without wide receiver Martavis Bryant for the season due to suspension.

As of now, Green is going as the TE10 in the ninth round. With this news, Green goes from a potential TE1 to a volatile TE2. He's worth a late-round flier, but do not invest a ton of draft capital in him.

Keep in mind that these headaches are bigger than fantasy football, though. Scary and sad situation for a guy who we have all been waiting for a breakout in a big way.

Buy: Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens

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What is happening? Seriously, though.

A week ago I wrote about Baltimore Ravens Terrance West and essentially said "lol" about the idea of West actually competing for the Ravens starting job in the backfield.

Well, it appears West read that article and took out his anger on the Carolina Panthers and has moved me off of my "lol" thinking to more of a "hey, you know what... There might be something here" thought process.

After glowing reports out of training camp, there is obviously still skepticism over players like West. When I say "players like West," I'm talking about those "training camp heroes." It seems like every player is having a great camp.

But hey, film doesn't lie. After reviewing the film of West in the Ravens first preseason game, it was clear that West's footwork and speed turning the corner has improved. On his second touchdown, West was headed towards the left side of the field, but he quickly turned the other way, went across the field, turned the corner and outran multiple defenders to get inside the pylon.

While this is just preseason, West displayed skills such as the ones outlined above and was able to shed tacklers. It appears that Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun was on to something when he said that West had "been the Ravens’ most explosive offensive player."

The problem West has is he on a Ravens team that has a plethora of quality running back depth.

Though fellow running back Justin Forsett is set to begin the season as the starter, we could see West and/or quite possibly rookie running back Kenneth Dixon push their ways up the depth chart.

With all of this said, I'd be cautious about drafting Forsett and willing to take fliers on West and Dixon. After these three, this leaves second-year back Buck Allen. Allen is perhaps the safest running back option to own on the Ravens. Although he is not a gifted runner, his receiving ability makes him a definite draft asset in points-per-reception leagues.

Sell: Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams

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I'll start off by saying this—I'm buying the talent of Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee. However, for the 2016 fantasy football season, I'm just not on board at all.

According to Greg Bedard of Sports Illustrated, the rookie tight end out of Western Kentucky is "having a great camp." Again, the talent is there, undoubtedly.

For those that are new to the Rams rookie tight end, Higbee is coming off a nine-game season with Western Kentucky, in which he caught 38 passes for 563 yards and eight touchdowns.

To start his college career, Higbee was a wide receiver, but he switched to tight end. As a result, Higbee's frame was a knock, as some believe he is still growing in to it. With that said, Higbee does very well when it comes to running routes, having a receiver background.

Those familiar with Higbee and his background will likely know of his assault charge that happened just 18 days before the draft. The good news, however, is the Rams appeared to overlook that and still took Higbee in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Minus the off-the-field issues, Higbee flashed signs of his ability in the teams' preseason Week 1 win over the Dallas Cowboys, where Higbee caught five passes on six targets in just 17 snaps.

During the game, Higbee displayed great blocking ability. Being able to block successfully will only earn a player snaps on the field. The Rams also lined Higbee up outside on a few occasions as a mismatch on Cowboys defensive back J.J. Wilcox. In addition to being lined up on the outside, the Rams used Higbee out of the backfield. It's clear that head coach Jeff Fisher and company know they have a talented player in Higbee. 

With all of that said, It's no secret, really—rookie tight ends are not valuable fantasy assets at all, unless your name is Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez.

The Rams are a team that at some point will begin the transition to an offense headed by a rookie quarterback who will lead an offense that, besides running back Todd Gurley, is not all that great.

Also on the tight end depth chart is Lance Kendricks, who Higbee will be competing with for snaps.

While Higbee possesses natural talent, he is not worth drafting in essentially any redraft format at this time. Give the guy a few years and then we'll talk.

Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-ReferencePro Football Focus and Team Rankings. All ADP references courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin.

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