Fantasy Football 2016: Breaking Down Mock Draft, Bold Picks and Strategy

Fantasy football is too mainstream to conquer as a seasonal hobby.

According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, 57.4 million people from the United States and Canada participated in fantasy football last season. The number of participants has increased each year since 2005, so all newcomers better start studying if they want to keep up with the fanatics.

Picking up a magazine days before draft day won't cut it anymore. Not when everyone else has devoured an online information minefield since May. It's easier than ever to stay informed from a variety of sharp sources and test that knowledge in mock drafts.

Over a month remains before Week 1 kicks off, but there's no better time than right now to start practicing. Let's dive into a test run conducted on FantasyPros so the real thing won't feel as scary.

Mock Draft

POS	Player	RD/Pick #
QB	Drew Brees, NO	5/57
RB	Carlos Hyde, SF	3/33
RB	Latavius Murray, OAK	4/40
WR	A.J. Green, CIN	1/9
WR	Jordy Nelson, GB	2/16
TE	Antonio Gates, SD	11/129
RB/WR	John Brown, ARI	6/64
DST	Kansas City Chiefs	14/160
K	Mason Crosby, GB	15/177
Bench
RB	Frank Gore, IND	7/81
RB	Melvin Gordon, SD	8/88
WR	Torrey Smith, SF	9/105
WR	Josh Gordon, CLE	10/112
WR	Laquon Treadwell, MIN	12/136
BN	Josh Ferguson, IND	13/153

I ran a 12-team mock draft on FantasyPros' Draft Wizard simulation, which has expert rankings and average draft position (ADP) data that drive picks from the 11 other auto-picked teams. While this way isn't a perfect gauge for how the competition will act, at least there's no mess created by pesky humans who pick Tim Tebow in the first round and leave.

I drafted under the guise of standard scoring, which doesn't allot any bonuses for receptions and rewards quarterbacks with four points per passing score instead of six. At random, I received pick No. 9.

Although not by design, I ended up with a fairly boring team full of steady veterans and workhorse running backs. As someone who usually plays in points-per-reception formats, a backfield with no pass-catchers feels wrong, but it should get the job done behind Drew Brees, A.J. Green and Jordy Nelson.

FantasyPros gives me a B-minus grade (82 out of 100) and projects a fifth-place finish. Yet I'm only narrowly behind the imaginary team in second. Besides, fantasy championships are won during the season anyway.

Strategy

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Not tying yourself to a specific strategy is ultimately the best way to go. Wide receivers are now universally desirable Round 1 commodities, but I would have gladly selected Todd Gurley if he fell to the No. 9 spot.

Instead, my first decision boiled down to DeAndre Hopkins or Green. While the Houston Texans wideout is the chalk choice recommended by FantasyPros' expert ranks, I rolled the dice on Green.

I was swayed by a passionate endorsement from NFL.com's Matt Harmon, who noted that Green received 27 percent of the Cincinnati Bengals' targets after topping 30 percent in the past three years. He anticipates an uptick with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu out of town:

"

A.J. Green should once again get back to the 30 percent market share, 160-plus target range. When he accomplished that feat in 2012 and 2013, he finished as a top-four receiver in fantasy. The stars are aligning for Green to return to the level of elite scoring receivers in 2016, and it feels painfully familiar to the way Julio Jones jumped into that group last year.

"

As long as they stay healthy, Green and Hopkins are both studs. Yet the former should get more looks while the latter sacrifices touches to Lamar Miller. 

Round 2 was all about best player available, so I grabbed Nelson in hopes of getting the 1,519-yard, 13-touchdown stud from 2014. A training camp setback could cause me to reconsider closer to the season, but Nelson told NFL.com's Mike Garafolo that nobody should panic:

Not as daring as other drafters, I scooped up two running backs instead of going the zero-RB route. With more adversaries waiting to find running backs later, there is value to snatch in the middle rounds. Frank Gore, whom I nearly took in Round 6, offers too much volume to not take at pick No. 81.

Despite averaging a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry and starting with a workload restriction, the 33-year-old finished with 1,234 total yards and seven touchdowns last season. He now gets help from a returning Andrew Luck and an offensive line fortified through the draft. According to the Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder, offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski also said the team won't limit the veteran to a snap count.

David Goldman/Associated Press

Every other fantasy advice column in the galaxy will broadcast the foolishness of taking a quarterback early. I'm not here to disagree, but I saw Brees sitting there near the end of Round 5.

The same Brees who has averaged 5,042 passing yards and 37 touchdowns per season over the last six years. The one who has missed two games in 10 years with the New Orleans Saints.

I passed on Russell Wilson in Round 3 and Luck in Round 4, but Brees compelled me to toss conventional wisdom out the window. For what it's worth, seven quarterbacks went in the next two rounds, so I beat a run and snagged a top-tier passer at a cheap price point. It wouldn't have happened if I entered the draft swearing not to address the position until Round 10 or later.

Boldest Picks

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Drafting is no fun when playing it safe all the way. I needed an adrenaline rush somewhere, and I found it from a player who has never visited the end zone.

Melvin Gordon, drafted shortly after Gurley at pick No. 15 last year, didn't score a single touchdown during his rookie season with the San Diego Chargers. He registered a meager 641 yards over 184 carries and never eclipsed 100 yards in a game.

Man, maybe that was a terrible pick.

Let's take a deep breath before writing off a 23-year-old who amassed 2,587 rushing yards and 32 total touchdowns in his final season for the Wisconsin Badgers. After his disappointing NFL debut, Gordon underwent microfracture knee surgery in January. Per the San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken, he has reported to training camp with a clean bill of health:

He'll receive help from offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, who returns to San Diego to stabilize the ground game. In 2013, he oversaw a 285-carry, 1,255-yard season from Ryan Mathews. Banking on better health and better play is risky, but Gordon warrants the gamble in Round 8.

Two rounds later, I chose another trendy Gordon who might not have lasted against human drafters. Last week, the Cleveland Browns conditionally reinstated Josh Gordon, who has not played since 2014. He's eligible to return after Week 4.

Despite all these caveats, drafters are salivating over a supremely talented 25-year-old who tallied 87 catches, 1,646 receiving yards and nine touchdowns during 14 games in 2013. He could pay massive dividends for gamers able to waste a bench slot for at least a quarter of the season.

In a recent 10-team mock draft on ESPN.com, Eric Karabell took the plunge at pick No. 75 in Round 8. The shallower the league, the easier it is to reach for the moon. Yet that's quite the wager to place on a guy who played five games (without a touchdown) over the last two years.

Don't be surprised if his ADP skyrockets out of control by the end of the month. In Round 10, he's a lottery ticket worth purchasing. If he requires a pricier investment on draft day, let another manager make the big splash.